| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Point Loma High School | Pointers | 14–3 |
| 2 |  |
Annapolis High School | Panthers | 13–4 |
| 3 |  |
St. George's School | Dragons | 11–6 |
| 4 |  |
Shorecrest Preparatory School | Chargers | 9–8 |
| 5 |  |
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings | 13–4 |
| 6 |  |
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | 8–9 |
| 7 |  |
St. Thomas Aquinas High School | Raiders | 8–9 |
| 8 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 7–10 |
| 9 |  |
Loyola Academy | Ramblers | 8–9 |
| 10 |  |
Cape Cod Academy | Seahawks | 6–11 |
| 11 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 4–13 |
| 12 |  |
Jesuit High School, NOLA | Blue Jays | 1–16 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 120 team race matches sailed before 2014-05-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 62 of 102 matches (61%) with a log-loss of 4.958 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Point Loma High School | 271.97 | 277.97 | 14–3 | 13.0 | +6.00 | 6.8 | <1% |
| 3 | St. George's School | 213.92 | 219.92 | 11–6 | 4.7 | +6.00 | 33.5 | <1% |
| 10 | Cape Cod Academy | 120.05 | 126.05 | 6–11 | 2.7 | +6.00 | 20.7 | <1% |
| 8 | Broadneck High School | 208.42 | 214.42 | 7–10 | 3.6 | +6.00 | 17.2 | <1% |
| 2 | Annapolis High School | 229.45 | 235.45 | 13–4 | 7.3 | +6.00 | 27.6 | <1% |
| 9 | Loyola Academy | 162.78 | 168.78 | 8–9 | 2.2 | +6.00 | 36.1 | <1% |
| 4 | Shorecrest Preparatory School | 229.11 | 229.54 | 9–8 | 8.6 | +0.44 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 7 | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 228.54 | 227.46 | 8–9 | 8.6 | −1.08 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 5 | Corona del Mar High School | 376.90 | 370.90 | 13–4 | 16.0 | −6.00 | 20.3 | >99% |
| 6 | Newport Harbor High School | 329.88 | 323.88 | 8–9 | 14.0 | −6.00 | 40.5 | >99% |
| 12 | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 204.95 | 198.95 | 1–16 | 5.2 | −6.00 | 27.4 | >99% |
| 11 | Bainbridge High School | 330.04 | 324.04 | 4–13 | 16.0 | −6.00 | 81.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Panthers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 2-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Dragons | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Chargers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Chargers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 2-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Pointers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 2-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Chargers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Bruins | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Sailors | 2-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Dragons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 2-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Raiders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 1-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Panthers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 2-3-6 |
| 29 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Pointers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 1-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Chargers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Chargers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ramblers | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Chargers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-5 |
| 46 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 3-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Ramblers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-3-6 |
| 50 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 4-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Sea Kings | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 2-3-6 |
| 53 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-4-6 |
| 54 | |
Sailors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-5-6 |
| 55 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 56 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 3-5-6 |
| 57 | |
Chargers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 58 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 59 | |
Dragons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 60 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-6 |
| 61 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-5-6 |
| 62 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 63 | |
Chargers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 64 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 65 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 3-5-6 |
| 66 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-6 |
| 67 | |
Pointers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-3-6 |
| 68 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 69 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 3-4-6 |
| 70 | |
Panthers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-4-5 |
| 71 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 72 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 73 | |
Chargers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Pointers | 2-4-5 |
| 74 | |
Sea Kings | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-6 |
| 75 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 76 | |
Panthers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-4-5 |
| 77 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-5-6 |
| 78 | |
Seahawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 2-3-6 |
| 79 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Pointers | 3-4-6 |
| 80 | |
Sea Kings | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Sailors | 2-5-6 |
| 81 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-6 |
| 82 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-4-5 |
| 83 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 84 | |
Spartans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 2-4-6 |
| 86 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 87 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-5 |
| 89 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 90 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-4-6 |
| 92 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 93 | |
Pointers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 2-3-6 |
| 95 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-6 |
| 96 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 98 | |
Sailors | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-5 |
| 99 | |
Panthers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Pointers | 1-5-6 |
| 101 | |
Raiders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-5-6 |
| 102 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Chargers | 4-5-6 |
| 85 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 3-4-5 |
| 88 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 91 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 94 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 2-5-6 |
| 97 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 100 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
