Poquoson High School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.73 (fleet -1.18) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–4 (50%) as crew 0–2 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 4–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 0–2 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (8 matches) the record is 4–4 against 2.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-24 | VISA NCS 3x3 Team Race Championship | skipper | -0.68 | 1.19 | 4–4 | 2.8 | +1.87 | 1.2 | 23% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA NSA York Fleet Race Regatta | Crew | A | 4 | 19.0 | — |
| VISA NCS 3x3 Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Maury Smithfield Regatta | Crew | A | 4 | 14.0 | — |
| MASSA Fall Fleet Champs II - Fort Monroe | Crew | A | 11 | 10.1 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA NCS/CCS 3v3 Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| VISA MHS Fleet Race Regatta | Crew | A | 2 | 7.5 | — |
| VISA Leukemia Cup Regatta | Crew | A | 2 | 14.0 | — |
| VISA Fleet Championship | Crew | B | 2 | 6.0 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA NCS Fleet Race Regatta | Crew | A | 5 | 16.2 | — |
| HCS/HRA Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 18.1 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Spring Championships | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.0 | -2.52 |
| VISA PHS_WA Fleet Regatta | Crew | A | 2 | 9.0 | — |
| VISA MHS Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 15.8 | -2.15 |
| VISA Leukemia Cup Regatta | Crew | B | 5 | 6.6 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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