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VISA MHS Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 13 32 45
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 37 24 61
3 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 42 21 63
4 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 15 68 83
5 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 48 40 88
6 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 49 43 92
7 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 42 54 96
8 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 49 47 96
9 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3 33 64 97
10 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 56 53 109
11 York High School York High School Varsity 1 64 53 117
12 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 91 38 129
13 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 79 64 143
14 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 79 86 165
15 York High School York High School Varsity 2 85 80 165
16 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 82 87 169
17 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 98 80 178
18 Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 91 109 200
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 1 4 2 3 2 1 13 Jack Elkin '15
Claire Rae '16
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 3 3 1 1 3 4 15 Dreugh Phillips '16
Sarah Smith '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3 6 7 4 4 4 8 33 Ellie Maus '18
Daniel Vail '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 8 1 6 2 1 OCS 37 Hector Guzman '16
Annabel Carrington '15
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 5 9 8 5 9 6 42 Nathan Gibson '15 [1-6]
Lauren Levinson '16 [1-2]
Catherine Gilmore '17 [3-4]
Michael Kendrick '16 [5-6]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 7 2 DSQ 6 6 2 42 Darden Purrington '16
Hunter Kahler '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 4 5 5 7 BKD DNS 48 Alex Moreno '15
Eric Demario '18
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 10 7 8 DNS 3 49 Marshall Mccraw '16
Alek Sas '18
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 11 13 3 12 5 5 49 Kaila Pfrang '17
Hailey Gilman '17
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 12 6 11 13 7 7 56 Blake Harrington '18
Jillian Kilgore '16
York High School York High School Varsity 1 15 11 9 10 10 9 64 Zane Morris '18
Kylee Hockaday '17
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 13 14 12 18 12 10 79 Charlie White '15 [1-6]
Kayla Washington '17 [1-2]
Catherine Cole '19 [3-4]
Kate Weaver '18 [5-6]
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 14 17 10 11 8 DNS 79 Jonathan Rowland '15
Raftery Cole '16
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 17 18 15 9 11 12 82 Anna Patterson '16
Cole Handly '19
York High School York High School Varsity 2 16 12 16 16 14 11 85 Daniel Hodges '18
Marissa White '18
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 9 15 14 15 DNS DNS 91 Alex Shinn '15 [1-6]
Leah Johnson '18 [1-2]
Kelly Ivy '17 [3]
Amory Hanes '18 [4-6]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 10 16 13 14 DNS DNS 91 Miles Campbell '16
Jill Shoemaker '19
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 18 8 17 17 DNS DNS 98 Jamie Papazis '20
Carson Cooper '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 7 5 3 2 2 2 21 Victor Layne '16
Mike Klink '15
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 OCS 1 1 1 1 1 24 Andy Burns '17
Eric Demario '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 14 2 4 3 5 4 32 Zoe Harding '18
Thomas Walker '17
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 1 9 7 6 8 7 38 Henry Eley '18
Henry Waddill '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 8 4 6 10 7 5 40 Brendan Little '18
Bryce Norvell '15
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3 16 RDG 8 3 6 43 Alexander Singh '15
Lawson Montgomery '18
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 2 7 5 9 9 15 47 Harrison Parker '18
Bobby Levin '18
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 5 12 2 DNS 6 9 53 Pierce Scribner '15
Sam Brady '19
York High School York High School Varsity 1 10 13 11 12 4 3 53 Haydon Gould '19
Marissa White '18
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 4 11 8 7 13 11 54 Richard Hall '15 [1-6]
Austin Ramsey '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Amory Hanes '18 [3-4]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3 9 3 9 5 DNS DNS 64 Chris Robertson '19
Parker Purrington '19
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 13 8 10 11 10 12 64 Will Ellson '15
Alexandrea Lingle '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 12 6 DNF 4 DNS 8 68 Joe Morrison '16
Nick Baker '16
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 6 10 13 13 DNS DNS 80 Ian O'Connell '16
Morgan Kelly '17
York High School York High School Varsity 2 11 17 14 14 14 10 80 Brian Fox '19
Haydon Gould '19
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 17 14 15 15 12 13 86 Byron Armstrong '18 [1-3, 5]
Tyler Cason '18 [4, 6]
Kate Weaver '18 [1-2]
Tyler Cason '18 [3, 5]
Byron Armstrong '18 [4, 6]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 16 15 12 DNF 11 14 87 Kasey Cordner '16
Mateo Burt '16
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 15 18 DNS DNS DNS DNS 109 Teresa Bonnin '17
Darius Williams '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1113355
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2131315151717
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 317171133
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity9911111313
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity8810101212
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 1557799
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 21515171711
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity111113131515
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs224466
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1335577
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2141416161818
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 318182244
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity446688
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders66881010
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield77991111
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity121214141616
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 1101012121414
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 21616181822

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1224466
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2141416161818
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 318182244
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity101012121414
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity9911111313
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 166881010
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 21616181822
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity121214141616
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs335577
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1446688
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 21515171711
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3113355
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity557799
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders77991111
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield8810101212
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity131315151717
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 1111113131515
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 217171133
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Hector Guzman '16 Annabel Carrington '15
Seahorses 1 Andy Burns '17 Eric Demario '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Jack Elkin '15 Claire Rae '16
Seahorses 2 Zoe Harding '18 Thomas Walker '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Alex Moreno '15 Eric Demario '18
Seahorses 3 Brendan Little '18 Bryce Norvell '15
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Miles Campbell '16 Jill Shoemaker '19
Varsity Henry Eley '18 Henry Waddill '19
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Anna Patterson '16 Cole Handly '19
Varsity Kasey Cordner '16 Mateo Burt '16
Maury High School Maury High School Jonathan Rowland '15 Raftery Cole '16
Varsity 1 Will Ellson '15 Alexandrea Lingle '19
Maury High School Maury High School Charlie White '15 [1-6] Kayla Washington '17 [1-2]
Catherine Cole '19 [3-4]
Kate Weaver '18 [5-6]
Varsity 2 Byron Armstrong '18 [1-3, 5]
Tyler Cason '18 [4, 6]		 Kate Weaver '18 [1-2]
Tyler Cason '18 [3, 5]
Byron Armstrong '18 [4, 6]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Kaila Pfrang '17 Hailey Gilman '17
Varsity Harrison Parker '18 Bobby Levin '18
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Marshall Mccraw '16 Alek Sas '18
Bulldogs Alexander Singh '15 Lawson Montgomery '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Darden Purrington '16 Hunter Kahler '17
Oaks 1 Victor Layne '16 Mike Klink '15
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Dreugh Phillips '16 Sarah Smith '18
Oaks 2 Joe Morrison '16 Nick Baker '16
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Ellie Maus '18 Daniel Vail '17
Oaks 3 Chris Robertson '19 Parker Purrington '19
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Blake Harrington '18 Jillian Kilgore '16
Varsity Pierce Scribner '15 Sam Brady '19
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Nathan Gibson '15 [1-6] Lauren Levinson '16 [1-2]
Catherine Gilmore '17 [3-4]
Michael Kendrick '16 [5-6]
Islanders Richard Hall '15 [1-6] Austin Ramsey '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Amory Hanes '18 [3-4]
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Alex Shinn '15 [1-6] Leah Johnson '18 [1-2]
Kelly Ivy '17 [3]
Amory Hanes '18 [4-6]
Smithfield Teresa Bonnin '17 Darius Williams '19
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Jamie Papazis '20 Carson Cooper '18
Varsity Ian O'Connell '16 Morgan Kelly '17
York High School York High School Zane Morris '18 Kylee Hockaday '17
Varsity 1 Haydon Gould '19 Marissa White '18
York High School York High School Daniel Hodges '18 Marissa White '18
Varsity 2 Brian Fox '19 Haydon Gould '19

Conditions — 04/04/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.1 kn
avg  ·  max 14.2 kn
Gusts to 29.5 kn
From NNW (328°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1016.2 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Hampton: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.02 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →