| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 10–1 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 6–5 |
| 3 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 8–4 |
| 4 |  |
Phoebus High School | Phantoms | 5–7 |
| 5 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 4–4 |
| 6 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 2–6 |
| 7 |  |
St. Christopher's School | Saints | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,441 team race matches sailed before 2015-10-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 30 of 35 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.394 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.51 ± 0.43: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 17% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Phoebus High School | 3.69 | 5.65 | 5–7 | 3.3 | +1.96 | 2.1 | 8% |
| 5 | Poquoson High School | 1.11 | 2.98 | 4–4 | 2.8 | +1.87 | 1.2 | 23% |
| 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School | 7.41 | 9.10 | 10–1 | 8.4 | +1.69 | 1.4 | 19% |
| 6 | Maury High School | 1.11 | 0.29 | 2–6 | 2.6 | −0.82 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 2 | Norfolk Academy | 6.89 | 5.91 | 6–5 | 7.1 | −0.98 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 3 | Christchurch School | 7.26 | 5.54 | 8–4 | 9.9 | −1.72 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 7 | St. Christopher's School | -0.59 | -3.59 | 0–8 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neilson Woodfield | Phoebus High School | 1.16 | 3.12 | 5–7 | 3.3 | +1.96 | 2.1 | 8% |
| Kendra Walker | Poquoson High School | 0.74 | 2.61 | 4–4 | 2.8 | +1.87 | 1.2 | 23% |
| Wilson Hatchett | Poquoson High School | 0.87 | 2.74 | 4–4 | 2.8 | +1.87 | 1.2 | 23% |
| Michael Kendrick | Poquoson High School | -0.68 | 1.19 | 4–4 | 2.8 | +1.87 | 1.2 | 23% |
| Alexandrea Lingle | Maury High School | 0.31 | -0.41 | 2–3 | 2.5 | −0.72 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Tyler Cason | Maury High School | 0.26 | -0.56 | 2–6 | 2.6 | −0.82 | 0.3 | 88% |
| Connor Mccrillis | Maury High School | 0.29 | -0.53 | 2–6 | 2.6 | −0.82 | 0.3 | 88% |
| Andy Burns | Christchurch School | 2.55 | 0.83 | 8–4 | 9.9 | −1.72 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Byron Armstrong | Maury High School | 0.35 | -2.65 | 0–3 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Ralph Levy | St. Christopher's School | -0.15 | -3.15 | 0–8 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Ramsey Morris | St. Christopher's School | -0.36 | -3.36 | 0–4 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Phantoms | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Phantoms | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Islanders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Saints | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Phantoms | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Commodores | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Saints | 2-5-6 DNF |
| 12 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Phantoms | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Phantoms | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Seahorses | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Saints | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Islanders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Phantoms | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahorses | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Phantoms | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Phantoms | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Phantoms | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Oaks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Seahorses | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Phantoms | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Phantoms | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 2-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Phantoms | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Islanders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Islanders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Commodores | 1-5-6 | def. | |
Saints | 2-3-4 RAF |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
