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VISA NCS Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 15 15 30
2 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 30 17 47
3 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1 32 16 48
4 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 1 8 41 49
5 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 20 30 50
6 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 31 37 68
7 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 4 29 44 73
8 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3 31 46 77
9 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 1 58 51 109
10 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 64 45 109
11 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 79 44 123
12 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 4 62 62 124
13 Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 80 62 142
14 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 2 69 74 143
15 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 5 62 88 150
16 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 1 74 78 152
17 York High School York High School Varsity 100 57 157
18 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 2 65 92 157
19 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 87 73 160
20 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 87 82 169
21 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 2 95 88 183
22 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 3 81 110 191
23 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 2 125 125 250
24 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 3 125 125 250
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 1 4 1 1 1 1 8 Alexander Hanna '15
Wilson Hatchett '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 2 4 4 3 15 Annabel Carrington '15
Alex Moreno '15
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 1 6 7 2 4 20 James Whitmore '16
Rossi Mccall '15
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 4 5 4 8 7 5 29 Alexander Singh '15
Emma Burdett '16
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 9 7 3 9 2 30 Jessica Williams '16
Emmaline Herring '16
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 3 RDG 6 8 8 31 Neilson Woodfield '16
Kasey Cordner '16
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3 6 9 2 3 11 31 Marshall Mccraw '16
Anna Cornetta '16
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1 7 3 10 6 6 32 Victor Layne '16
Daniel Vail '17
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 1 13 5 12 12 16 58 Miles Campbell '16
Mike Keller '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 5 8 10 16 13 15 62 Parker Purrington '19
Matt Wright '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 4 14 8 17 11 12 62 Joe Morrison '16
Nathan Stell '17
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 20 14 9 14 7 64 Kaila Pfrang '17
Nicole Lavallee '18
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 2 16 19 11 5 14 65 Luke Fitzharris '19
Kylie Deboer '15
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 2 11 13 5 19 21 69 Nathan Gibson '15
Shane Scott '18
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 1 10 15 20 16 13 74 Richard Gunn '15
Carson Cooper '18
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 19 16 15 20 9 79 Pierce Scribner '15
Sam Brady '19
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 18 18 14 10 20 80 Alex Shinn '15
Ramani Perera '15
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 3 12 11 19 17 22 81 Richard Hall '15
Michael Kendrick '16
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 17 21 18 21 10 87 Will Ellson '15
Charlotte Hennessy '15
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 21 20 13 15 18 87 Tyler Cason '18
Alexandrea Lingle '19
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 2 22 17 21 18 17 95 Burke Lawlor '17
Meredith Watkins '15
York High School York High School Varsity 15 22 22 22 19 100 Daniel Hodges '18
Kylee Hockaday '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 2 DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 125 Darden Purrington '16
Nick Baker '16
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 3 DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 125 Dreugh Phillips '16
Sarah Smith '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 6 RDG 2 3 15 Jack Elkin '15 [1-4]
Andy Burns '17 [5]
Thomas Walker '17 [1-4]
Bryce Norvell '15 [5]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1 7 1 2 1 5 16 Ellie Maus '18
Ashley Obermeyer '18
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 2 10 1 3 1 17 Gray Kiger '16
Alek Sas '18
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 3 2 9 8 8 30 Jon Pavilack '16
Anna Brush '15
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 5 13 7 6 6 37 Blake Harrington '18 [1-5]
Emily Rhodes '16 [1-2]
Jillian Kilgore '16 [3-5]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 1 4 3 8 14 12 41 Kendra Walker '16
Lauren Levinson '16
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 4 9 14 5 7 9 44 Jack Dickerson '15
Sam Archbell '15
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 10 5 3 11 15 44 Anna Patterson '16 [1-5]
Rana Fadah '16 [1-4]
Emily Rhodes '16 [5]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 6 7 6 12 14 45 Harrison Parker '18
Alex Wilkerson '19
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3 12 12 10 5 7 46 Elise Turrietta '16
Katie Mansoor '16
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 1 16 16 4 4 11 51 Henry Waddill '19
Henry Eley '18
York High School York High School Varsity 11 8 15 13 10 57 Zane Morris '18 [1-5]
Haydon Gould '19 [1-2, 5]
Brian Fox '19 [3-4]
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 8 4 13 19 18 62 Eric Malarkey '15
Grant Rosen '15
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 4 17 15 16 10 4 62 Chris Robertson '19
Hunter Kahler '17
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 15 19 17 9 13 73 Charlie White '15 [1-5]
Maggie Rowland '16 [1-2, 5]
Riley Golski '15 [3-4]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 2 22 9 20 21 2 74 Amory Hanes '18
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 1 13 11 21 17 16 78 Morgan Kelly '17
Ian O'Connell '16
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 14 21 11 15 21 82 Byron Armstrong '18
Kayla Washington '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 5 20 17 14 20 17 88 Alex Holt '17
Nick Selig '17
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 2 21 18 12 18 19 88 Jacob Wilcox '16 [1-5]
Morgan Williams '17 [1-2, 5]
Stanton Camp '17 [3-4]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 2 18 20 18 16 20 92 Alex Kitay '19
Jared Cronin '17
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 3 19 22 19 DNF DNS 110 Catherine Gilmore '17
Sam Huggin '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 2 DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 125 Parker Purrington '19
Nick Baker '16
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 3 DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 125 Dreugh Phillips '16
Sarah Smith '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses11335
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity 199111113
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity 21818102102105
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity1212141416
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 1779911
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 21616101101103
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity55779
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 133557
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 214141616101
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 3103103106106108
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 4107107113
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 122446
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 21313151518
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 3102102105105107
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 41061061081082
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 5108108224
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity88101012
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Varsity 144668
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Varsity 215151818102
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Varsity 31051051071071
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield668810
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity 11010121214
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity 2101101103103106
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity1111131315

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses22446
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity 11010121214
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity 2101101103103106
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity1313151518
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 188101012
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 21818102102105
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity668810
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 144668
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 215151818102
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 31051051071071
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 4108108224
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 133557
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 214141616101
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 3103103106106108
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 4107107113
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 511335
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity99111113
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Varsity 155779
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Varsity 21616101101103
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Varsity 31061061081082
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield779911
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity 11111131315
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity 2102102105105107
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity1212141416
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Annabel Carrington '15 Alex Moreno '15
Seahorses Jack Elkin '15 [1-4]
Andy Burns '17 [5]		 Thomas Walker '17 [1-4]
Bryce Norvell '15 [5]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Miles Campbell '16 Mike Keller '17
Varsity 1 Henry Waddill '19 Henry Eley '18
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Luke Fitzharris '19 Kylie Deboer '15
Varsity 2 Alex Kitay '19 Jared Cronin '17
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Pierce Scribner '15 Sam Brady '19
Varsity Anna Patterson '16 [1-5] Rana Fadah '16 [1-4]
Emily Rhodes '16 [5]
Maury High School Maury High School Will Ellson '15 Charlotte Hennessy '15
Varsity 1 Charlie White '15 [1-5] Maggie Rowland '16 [1-2, 5]
Riley Golski '15 [3-4]
Maury High School Maury High School Tyler Cason '18 Alexandrea Lingle '19
Varsity 2 Byron Armstrong '18 Kayla Washington '17
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Kaila Pfrang '17 Nicole Lavallee '18
Varsity Harrison Parker '18 Alex Wilkerson '19
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Jessica Williams '16 Emmaline Herring '16
Bulldogs 1 Gray Kiger '16 Alek Sas '18
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy James Whitmore '16 Rossi Mccall '15
Bulldogs 2 Jon Pavilack '16 Anna Brush '15
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Marshall Mccraw '16 Anna Cornetta '16
Bulldogs 3 Elise Turrietta '16 Katie Mansoor '16
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Alexander Singh '15 Emma Burdett '16
Bulldogs 4 Jack Dickerson '15 Sam Archbell '15
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Victor Layne '16 Daniel Vail '17
Varsity 1 Ellie Maus '18 Ashley Obermeyer '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Darden Purrington '16 Nick Baker '16
Varsity 2 Parker Purrington '19 Nick Baker '16
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Dreugh Phillips '16 Sarah Smith '18
Varsity 3 Dreugh Phillips '16 Sarah Smith '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Joe Morrison '16 Nathan Stell '17
Varsity 4 Chris Robertson '19 Hunter Kahler '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Parker Purrington '19 Matt Wright '19
Varsity 5 Alex Holt '17 Nick Selig '17
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Neilson Woodfield '16 Kasey Cordner '16
Varsity Blake Harrington '18 [1-5] Emily Rhodes '16 [1-2]
Jillian Kilgore '16 [3-5]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Alexander Hanna '15 Wilson Hatchett '17
Varsity 1 Kendra Walker '16 Lauren Levinson '16
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Nathan Gibson '15 Shane Scott '18
Varsity 2 Amory Hanes '18
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Richard Hall '15 Michael Kendrick '16
Varsity 3 Catherine Gilmore '17 Sam Huggin '18
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Alex Shinn '15 Ramani Perera '15
Smithfield Eric Malarkey '15 Grant Rosen '15
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Richard Gunn '15 Carson Cooper '18
Varsity 1 Morgan Kelly '17 Ian O'Connell '16
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Burke Lawlor '17 Meredith Watkins '15
Varsity 2 Jacob Wilcox '16 [1-5] Morgan Williams '17 [1-2, 5]
Stanton Camp '17 [3-4]
York High School York High School Daniel Hodges '18 Kylee Hockaday '17
Varsity Zane Morris '18 [1-5] Haydon Gould '19 [1-2, 5]
Brian Fox '19 [3-4]

Conditions — 10/04/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1003.7 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 69°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.1 kn
avg  ·  max 9.8 kn
Gusts to 19.8 kn
From W (272°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover35% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1003.7 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Norfolk Collegiate School: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.21 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Collegiate School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Norfolk Collegiate School, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →