VISA NSA York Fleet Race Regatta

HostNYCC
Date09/19/2015
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	7	9	16
2	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	12	11	23
3	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	22	13	35
4	Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	23	13	36
5	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	20	20	40
6	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	26	38	64
7	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	40	30	70
8	Phoebus High School	Varsity	28	46	74
9	Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity 1	41	35	76
10	Hampton High School	Varsity	46	33	79
11	York High School	Varsity	36	46	82
12	Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	39	49	88
13	Maury High School	Varsity 1	55	55	110
14	Maury High School	Varsity 2	54	61	115
15	Walsingham Academy	Varsity	58	70	128
16	Grafton High School	Varsity	62	66	128
17	Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	76	52	128
18	Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity 2	62	74	136
19	St. Christopher's School	Saints 1	72	66	138
20	Kecoughtan High School	Varsity	83	57	140
21	St. Catherine's School	Saints	76	83	159
22	St. Christopher's School	Saints 2	86	86	172
23	Smithfield High School	Smithfield	81	93	174

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	2	3	1	1	7	Hector Guzman '16 Alara Sahin '18
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	1	4	2	5	12	Dreugh Phillips '16 Sarah Smith '18
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	4	7	5	4	20	Ellie Maus '18 Ashley Obermeyer '18
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	3	1	15	3	22	James Whitmore '16 Marshall Mccraw '16
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	6	8	3	6	23	Andy Burns '17 Sally Johnson '18
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	9	2	4	11	26	Kaila Pfrang '17 Hailey Gilman '17
Phoebus High School	Varsity	5	5	11	7	28	Neilson Woodfield '16 Kasey Cordner '16
York High School	Varsity	21	6	7	2	36	Daniel Hodges '18 Marissa White '18
Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	7	12	8	12	39	Kendra Walker '16 Lauren Levinson '16
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	11	9	12	8	40	Jon Pavilack '16 Alek Sas '18
Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity 1	10	11	6	14	41	Henry Eley '18 Henry Waddill '19
Hampton High School	Varsity	12	15	10	9	46	Anna Patterson '16 [1-4] Emily Rhodes '16 [1-2] Kaitlyn Kalberg '17 [3-4]
Maury High School	Varsity 2	8	20	9	17	54	Alexandrea Lingle '19 Kate Weaver '18
Maury High School	Varsity 1	13	13	16	13	55	Byron Armstrong '18 Lucien Parker '20
Walsingham Academy	Varsity	14	16	13	15	58	Ian O'Connell '16 Declan Lawlor '16
Grafton High School	Varsity	15	14	17	16	62	Zane Morris '18 Charlie Gibson '20
Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity 2	16	10	14	22	62	Jared Cronin '17 [1-4] Connor Duggan '19 [1-2] Andrew Frix '18 [3-4]
St. Christopher's School	Saints 1	17	DNF	21	10	72	Ralph Levy '18 Colin Smith '16
St. Catherine's School	Saints	18	18	19	21	76	Blair Cavanaugh '16 [1-4] Isabella Sims '17 [1-2] Abby Nichols '17 [3-4]
Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	19	17	22	18	76	Catherine Gilmore '17 Michael Kendrick '16
Smithfield High School	Smithfield	22	19	20	20	81	Ellie Hinkle '19 [1-4] Kelly Ivy '17 [1-2] Carley Peacock '17 [3-4]
Kecoughtan High School	Varsity	20	22	18	23	83	Cole Handly '19 [1-4] Micaela Twisdale '16 [1-2] Will Olson '17 [3-4]
St. Christopher's School	Saints 2	23	21	23	19	86	Harrison Clary '18 Berkeley Galston '17

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	2	3	3	1	9	Boyd Bragg '19 Eric Demario '18
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	3	1	5	2	11	Darden Purrington '16 Anne Burns '16
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	1	7	2	3	13	Jessica Williams '16 Emmaline Herring '16
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	4	2	1	6	13	Austen Freda '17 Claire Rae '16
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	6	6	4	4	20	Daniel Vail '17 Ray Domena '19
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	5	5	7	13	30	Elise Turrietta '16 Katie Mansoor '16
Hampton High School	Varsity	8	9	6	10	33	Spencer Charney '16 [1-4] Jillian Kilgore '16 [1-2] Olivia Whitehouse '17 [3-4]
Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity 1	14	4	12	5	35	Miles Campbell '16 Alex Kitay '19
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	11	10	8	9	38	Harrison Parker '18 T.J. Argust '18
Phoebus High School	Varsity	7	13	18	8	46	Blake Harrington '18 William Thornton '17
York High School	Varsity	10	12	10	14	46	Lucas Grigorian '17 Christopher Raab '20
Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	12	14	16	7	49	Wilson Hatchett '17 Jordan Hillis '17
Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	9	18	13	12	52	Dillon Scott '16 Andrea Dalseg '16
Maury High School	Varsity 1	17	8	14	16	55	Tyler Cason '18 Emily Palmer '18
Kecoughtan High School	Varsity	13	17	9	18	57	Sam Brady '19 Grace Holloway '17
Maury High School	Varsity 2	16	11	17	17	61	Connor Mccrillis '20 Will Moore '20
Grafton High School	Varsity	15	19	11	21	66	Kylee Hockaday '17 Sydney Kelly '20
St. Christopher's School	Saints 1	18	22	15	11	66	Judson Innes '18 Thomas Branch '17
Walsingham Academy	Varsity	20	16	19	15	70	Carson Cooper '18 Jacob Wilcox '16
Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity 2	19	15	20	20	74	Mark Fitzharris '19 Phillip Whitten '17
St. Catherine's School	Saints	22	20	22	19	83	Elizabeth Magee '17 [1-2] Audrey Ladd '19 [3-4] Caroline Hudgens '17 [1-2] Emmy Jankowski '19 [3-4]
St. Christopher's School	Saints 2	21	21	21	23	86	Colin Knight '16 [1-4] Ricky Stockel '17 [1-2] Ramsey Morris '19 [3-4]
Smithfield High School	Smithfield	DNF	23	DNF	22	93	Raina Hempley '19 Heather Coultas '18

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Christchurch School Seahorses 1	2	2	4	4
Christchurch School Seahorses 2	18	18	102	102
Grafton High School Varsity	4	4	6	6
Hampton High School Varsity	10	10	12	12
Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 1	5	5	7	7
Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 2	102	102	105	105
Kecoughtan High School Varsity	8	8	10	10
Maury High School Varsity 1	11	11	13	13
Maury High School Varsity 2	103	103	106	106
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	6	6	8	8
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	1	1	3	3
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2	17	17	101	101
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	3	3	5	5
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2	101	101	103	103
Phoebus High School Varsity	7	7	9	9
Poquoson High School Islanders 1	13	13	15	15
Poquoson High School Islanders 2	105	105	1	1
Smithfield High School Smithfield	15	15	17	17
St. Catherine's School Saints	16	16	18	18
St. Christopher's School Saints 1	14	14	16	16
St. Christopher's School Saints 2	106	106	2	2
Walsingham Academy Varsity	12	12	14	14
York High School Varsity	9	9	11	11

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Christchurch School Seahorses 1	3	3	5	5
Christchurch School Seahorses 2	101	101	103	103
Grafton High School Varsity	5	5	7	7
Hampton High School Varsity	11	11	13	13
Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 1	6	6	8	8
Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 2	103	103	106	106
Kecoughtan High School Varsity	9	9	11	11
Maury High School Varsity 1	12	12	14	14
Maury High School Varsity 2	105	105	1	1
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	7	7	9	9
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	2	2	4	4
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2	18	18	102	102
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	4	4	6	6
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2	102	102	105	105
Phoebus High School Varsity	8	8	10	10
Poquoson High School Islanders 1	14	14	16	16
Poquoson High School Islanders 2	106	106	2	2
Smithfield High School Smithfield	16	16	18	18
St. Catherine's School Saints	17	17	101	101
St. Christopher's School Saints 1	15	15	17	17
St. Christopher's School Saints 2	1	1	3	3
Walsingham Academy Varsity	13	13	15	15
York High School Varsity	10	10	12	12

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Christchurch School	Hector Guzman '16	Alara Sahin '18
Seahorses 1	Boyd Bragg '19	Eric Demario '18
Christchurch School	Andy Burns '17	Sally Johnson '18
Seahorses 2	Austen Freda '17	Claire Rae '16
Grafton High School	Zane Morris '18	Charlie Gibson '20
Varsity	Kylee Hockaday '17	Sydney Kelly '20
Hampton High School	Anna Patterson '16 [1-4]	Emily Rhodes '16 [1-2] Kaitlyn Kalberg '17 [3-4]
Varsity	Spencer Charney '16 [1-4]	Jillian Kilgore '16 [1-2] Olivia Whitehouse '17 [3-4]
Hampton Roads Academy	Henry Eley '18	Henry Waddill '19
Varsity 1	Miles Campbell '16	Alex Kitay '19
Hampton Roads Academy	Jared Cronin '17 [1-4]	Connor Duggan '19 [1-2] Andrew Frix '18 [3-4]
Varsity 2	Mark Fitzharris '19	Phillip Whitten '17
Kecoughtan High School	Cole Handly '19 [1-4]	Micaela Twisdale '16 [1-2] Will Olson '17 [3-4]
Varsity	Sam Brady '19	Grace Holloway '17
Maury High School	Byron Armstrong '18	Lucien Parker '20
Varsity 1	Tyler Cason '18	Emily Palmer '18
Maury High School	Alexandrea Lingle '19	Kate Weaver '18
Varsity 2	Connor Mccrillis '20	Will Moore '20
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Kaila Pfrang '17	Hailey Gilman '17
Saints	Harrison Parker '18	T.J. Argust '18
Norfolk Academy	James Whitmore '16	Marshall Mccraw '16
Bulldogs 1	Jessica Williams '16	Emmaline Herring '16
Norfolk Academy	Jon Pavilack '16	Alek Sas '18
Bulldogs 2	Elise Turrietta '16	Katie Mansoor '16
Norfolk Collegiate School	Dreugh Phillips '16	Sarah Smith '18
Oaks 1	Darden Purrington '16	Anne Burns '16
Norfolk Collegiate School	Ellie Maus '18	Ashley Obermeyer '18
Oaks 2	Daniel Vail '17	Ray Domena '19
Phoebus High School	Neilson Woodfield '16	Kasey Cordner '16
Varsity	Blake Harrington '18	William Thornton '17
Poquoson High School	Kendra Walker '16	Lauren Levinson '16
Islanders 1	Wilson Hatchett '17	Jordan Hillis '17
Poquoson High School	Catherine Gilmore '17	Michael Kendrick '16
Islanders 2	Dillon Scott '16	Andrea Dalseg '16
Smithfield High School	Ellie Hinkle '19 [1-4]	Kelly Ivy '17 [1-2] Carley Peacock '17 [3-4]
Smithfield	Raina Hempley '19	Heather Coultas '18
St. Catherine's School	Blair Cavanaugh '16 [1-4]	Isabella Sims '17 [1-2] Abby Nichols '17 [3-4]
Saints	Elizabeth Magee '17 [1-2] Audrey Ladd '19 [3-4]	Caroline Hudgens '17 [1-2] Emmy Jankowski '19 [3-4]
St. Christopher's School	Ralph Levy '18	Colin Smith '16
Saints 1	Judson Innes '18	Thomas Branch '17
St. Christopher's School	Harrison Clary '18	Berkeley Galston '17
Saints 2	Colin Knight '16 [1-4]	Ricky Stockel '17 [1-2] Ramsey Morris '19 [3-4]
Walsingham Academy	Ian O'Connell '16	Declan Lawlor '16
Varsity	Carson Cooper '18	Jacob Wilcox '16
York High School	Daniel Hodges '18	Marissa White '18
Varsity	Lucas Grigorian '17	Christopher Raab '20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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VISA NSA York Fleet Race Regatta

Division A

Division B

From the notes