Smithfield High School '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.07 (fleet -0.11) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–7 (12%) as crew 0–8 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 0–8 |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 1–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 1–15 against 2.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-23 | VISA Maury 2v2 Team Race Regatta | crew | -1.13 | -4.13 | 0–8 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| 2015-10-24 | VISA NCS 2x2 Team Race Champions | skipper | 0.00 | -1.33 | 1–7 | 1.9 | −1.33 | 0.6 | 93% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Season | |||||
| VISA Maury 2v2 Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| VISA Fleet Race Championship | Crew | B | 3 | 14.3 | — |
| Fall 2015 Season | |||||
| VISA NSA York Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 20.2 | -1.78 |
| VISA NCS 2x2 Team Race Champions | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| Norfolk Academy Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 16.8 | -0.69 |
| Maury Smithfield Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 19.2 | -1.23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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