Maury Smithfield Regatta

HostMaury-Smithfield
Date09/12/2015
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	10	6	16
2	Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	17	10	27
3	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	20	11	31
4	Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	19	23	42
5	Christchurch School	Seahorses 3	14	40	54
6	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	37	31	68
7	York High School	Varsity 1	16	57	73
8	Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity 1	50	23	73
9	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	36	39	75
10	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	39	38	77
11	Phoebus High School	Varsity	46	38	84
12	Kecoughtan High School	Varsity	56	30	86
13	York High School	Varsity 2	46	50	96
14	Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	56	51	107
15	Hampton High School	Varsity	44	66	110
16	Maury High School	Varsity 1	66	57	123
17	Walsingham Academy	Varsity	69	75	144
18	Maury High School	Varsity 2	74	73	147
19	Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	76	75	151
20	Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity 2	84	69	153
21	St. Christopher's School	Varsity 1	76	83	159
22	Smithfield High School	Smithfield	77	86	163
23	St. Christopher's School	Varsity 2	87	82	169
24	St. Catherine's School	Varsity	84	86	170

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	2	6	1	1	10	Gray Kiger '16 Alek Sas '18
Christchurch School	Seahorses 3	1	4	4	5	14	Boyd Bragg '19 Eric Demario '18
York High School	Varsity 1	5	3	6	2	16	Nathan Smith '20 Lucas Grigorian '17
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	9	2	3	3	17	Hector Guzman '16 Alara Sahin '18
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	3	5	5	6	19	Austen Freda '17 Claire Rae '16
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	6	1	2	11	20	Dreugh Phillips '16 Sarah Smith '18
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	8	10	10	8	36	Kaila Pfrang '17 Hailey Gilman '17
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	4	16	8	9	37	Elise Turrietta '16 Emmaline Herring '16
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	14	9	12	4	39	Daniel Vail '17 Ray Domena '19
Hampton High School	Varsity	17	8	9	10	44	Anna Patterson '16 Emily Rhodes '16
Phoebus High School	Varsity	12	7	7	20	46	Neilson Woodfield '16 William Thornton '17
York High School	Varsity 2	16	12	11	7	46	Zane Morris '18 Charlie Gibson '20
Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity 1	11	13	13	13	50	Miles Campbell '16 Alex Kitay '19
Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	7	14	16	19	56	Kendra Walker '16 Michael Kendrick '16
Kecoughtan High School	Varsity	10	11	20	15	56	Cole Handly '19 Micaela Twisdale '16
Maury High School	Varsity 1	20	15	15	16	66	Alexandrea Lingle '19 Kate Weaver '18
Walsingham Academy	Varsity	13	18	21	17	69	Ian O'Connell '16 Declan Lawlor '16
Maury High School	Varsity 2	15	20	14	DNF	74	Tyler Cason '18 Lucien Parker '20
Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	18	22	24	12	76	Catherine Gilmore '17 Jack Mckenna '20
St. Christopher's School	Varsity 1	22	21	19	14	76	Ralph Levy '18 Colin Smith '16
Smithfield High School	Smithfield	19	19	17	22	77	Ellie Hinkle '19 Jaylin Barrett '19
St. Catherine's School	Varsity	21	24	18	21	84	Blair Cavanaugh '16 Abby Nichols '17
Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity 2	RDG	17	23	23	84	Jared Cronin '17 Scott Spencer '19
St. Christopher's School	Varsity 2	24	23	22	18	87	Harrison Clary '18 Thomas Branch '17

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	2	2	1	1	6	James Whitmore '16 Michael Hostutler '20
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	5	1	2	2	10	Andy Burns '17 Sally Johnson '18
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	1	3	3	4	11	Ellie Maus '18 Ashley Obermeyer '18
Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity 1	3	4	10	6	23	Henry Eley '18 Henry Waddill '19
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	4	10	6	3	23	Brendan Little '18 Thomas Walker '17
Kecoughtan High School	Varsity	7	6	8	9	30	Parker Bunting '18 Jillian Kilgore '16
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	6	13	4	8	31	Jon Pavilack '16 Jack Whitmore '19
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	13	11	7	7	38	Hunter Kahler '17 [1-2] Parker Purrington '19 [3-4] Nick Selig '17 [1-2] Matt Wright '19 [3-4]
Phoebus High School	Varsity	16	8	9	5	38	Blake Harrington '18 Ricky Cordner '19
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	8	5	16	10	39	Harrison Parker '18 T.J. Argust '18
Christchurch School	Seahorses 3	11	9	5	15	40	Zoe Harding '18 Sierra Lanier '18
York High School	Varsity 2	10	14	12	14	50	Kylee Hockaday '17 Haydon Gould '19
Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	14	15	11	11	51	Wilson Hatchett '17 Jordan Hillis '17
Maury High School	Varsity 1	12	12	13	20	57	Byron Armstrong '18 Will Moore '20
York High School	Varsity 1	15	16	14	12	57	Daniel Hodges '18 Marissa White '18
Hampton High School	Varsity	9	7	DNS	DNF	66	Kasey Cordner '16 Grace Holloway '17
Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity 2	20	21	15	13	69	Mark Fitzharris '19 Phillip Whitten '17
Maury High School	Varsity 2	18	20	17	RDG	73	Connor Mccrillis '20 [1-4] Emily Palmer '18 [1-2] Cole Weaver '20 [3-4]
Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	17	22	19	17	75	Brit Cortina '20 Amory Hanes '18
Walsingham Academy	Varsity	22	19	18	16	75	Morgan Kelly '17 [1-2] Carson Cooper '18 [3-4] Stanton Camp '18 [1-2] Jacob Wilcox '16 [3-4]
St. Christopher's School	Varsity 2	19	24	21	18	82	Ramsey Morris '19 Ricky Stockel '17
St. Christopher's School	Varsity 1	21	23	20	19	83	Judson Innes '18 Berkeley Galston '17
Smithfield High School	Smithfield	23	17	DNS	21	86	Raina Hempley '19 [1-4] Heather Coultas '18 [1-2] Carley Peacock '17 [3-4]
St. Catherine's School	Varsity	24	18	22	22	86	Elizabeth Magee '17 [1-2] Audrey Ladd '19 [3-4] Caroline Hudgens '17 [1-2] Emmy Jankowski '19 [3-4]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Christchurch School Seahorses 1	1	1	3	3
Christchurch School Seahorses 2	16	16	18	18
Christchurch School Seahorses 3	106	106	2	2
Hampton High School Varsity	13	13	15	15
Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 1	8	8	10	10
Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 2	103	103	105	105
Kecoughtan High School Varsity	10	10	12	12
Maury High School Varsity 1	7	7	9	9
Maury High School Varsity 2	102	102	104	104
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	4	4	6	6
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	3	3	5	5
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2	18	18	102	102
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	2	2	4	4
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2	17	17	101	101
Phoebus High School Varsity	5	5	7	7
Poquoson High School Islanders 1	6	6	8	8
Poquoson High School Islanders 2	101	101	103	103
Smithfield High School Smithfield	12	12	14	14
St. Catherine's School Varsity	14	14	16	16
St. Christopher's School Varsity 1	15	15	17	17
St. Christopher's School Varsity 2	105	105	1	1
Walsingham Academy Varsity	11	11	13	13
York High School Varsity 1	9	9	11	11
York High School Varsity 2	104	104	106	106

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Christchurch School Seahorses 1	2	2	4	4
Christchurch School Seahorses 2	17	17	101	101
Christchurch School Seahorses 3	1	1	3	3
Hampton High School Varsity	14	14	16	16
Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 1	9	9	11	11
Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 2	104	104	106	106
Kecoughtan High School Varsity	11	11	13	13
Maury High School Varsity 1	8	8	10	10
Maury High School Varsity 2	103	103	105	105
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	5	5	7	7
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	4	4	6	6
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2	101	101	103	103
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	3	3	5	5
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2	18	18	102	102
Phoebus High School Varsity	6	6	8	8
Poquoson High School Islanders 1	7	7	9	9
Poquoson High School Islanders 2	102	102	104	104
Smithfield High School Smithfield	13	13	15	15
St. Catherine's School Varsity	15	15	17	17
St. Christopher's School Varsity 1	16	16	18	18
St. Christopher's School Varsity 2	106	106	2	2
Walsingham Academy Varsity	12	12	14	14
York High School Varsity 1	10	10	12	12
York High School Varsity 2	105	105	1	1

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Christchurch School	Hector Guzman '16	Alara Sahin '18
Seahorses 1	Andy Burns '17	Sally Johnson '18
Christchurch School	Austen Freda '17	Claire Rae '16
Seahorses 2	Brendan Little '18	Thomas Walker '17
Christchurch School	Boyd Bragg '19	Eric Demario '18
Seahorses 3	Zoe Harding '18	Sierra Lanier '18
Hampton High School	Anna Patterson '16	Emily Rhodes '16
Varsity	Kasey Cordner '16	Grace Holloway '17
Hampton Roads Academy	Miles Campbell '16	Alex Kitay '19
Varsity 1	Henry Eley '18	Henry Waddill '19
Hampton Roads Academy	Jared Cronin '17	Scott Spencer '19
Varsity 2	Mark Fitzharris '19	Phillip Whitten '17
Kecoughtan High School	Cole Handly '19	Micaela Twisdale '16
Varsity	Parker Bunting '18	Jillian Kilgore '16
Maury High School	Alexandrea Lingle '19	Kate Weaver '18
Varsity 1	Byron Armstrong '18	Will Moore '20
Maury High School	Tyler Cason '18	Lucien Parker '20
Varsity 2	Connor Mccrillis '20 [1-4]	Emily Palmer '18 [1-2] Cole Weaver '20 [3-4]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Kaila Pfrang '17	Hailey Gilman '17
Saints	Harrison Parker '18	T.J. Argust '18
Norfolk Academy	Gray Kiger '16	Alek Sas '18
Bulldogs 1	James Whitmore '16	Michael Hostutler '20
Norfolk Academy	Elise Turrietta '16	Emmaline Herring '16
Bulldogs 2	Jon Pavilack '16	Jack Whitmore '19
Norfolk Collegiate School	Dreugh Phillips '16	Sarah Smith '18
Oaks 1	Ellie Maus '18	Ashley Obermeyer '18
Norfolk Collegiate School	Daniel Vail '17	Ray Domena '19
Oaks 2	Hunter Kahler '17 [1-2] Parker Purrington '19 [3-4]	Nick Selig '17 [1-2] Matt Wright '19 [3-4]
Phoebus High School	Neilson Woodfield '16	William Thornton '17
Varsity	Blake Harrington '18	Ricky Cordner '19
Poquoson High School	Kendra Walker '16	Michael Kendrick '16
Islanders 1	Wilson Hatchett '17	Jordan Hillis '17
Poquoson High School	Catherine Gilmore '17	Jack Mckenna '20
Islanders 2	Brit Cortina '20	Amory Hanes '18
Smithfield High School	Ellie Hinkle '19	Jaylin Barrett '19
Smithfield	Raina Hempley '19 [1-4]	Heather Coultas '18 [1-2] Carley Peacock '17 [3-4]
St. Catherine's School	Blair Cavanaugh '16	Abby Nichols '17
Varsity	Elizabeth Magee '17 [1-2] Audrey Ladd '19 [3-4]	Caroline Hudgens '17 [1-2] Emmy Jankowski '19 [3-4]
St. Christopher's School	Ralph Levy '18	Colin Smith '16
Varsity 1	Judson Innes '18	Berkeley Galston '17
St. Christopher's School	Harrison Clary '18	Thomas Branch '17
Varsity 2	Ramsey Morris '19	Ricky Stockel '17
Walsingham Academy	Ian O'Connell '16	Declan Lawlor '16
Varsity	Morgan Kelly '17 [1-2] Carson Cooper '18 [3-4]	Stanton Camp '18 [1-2] Jacob Wilcox '16 [3-4]
York High School	Nathan Smith '20	Lucas Grigorian '17
Varsity 1	Daniel Hodges '18	Marissa White '18
York High School	Zane Morris '18	Charlie Gibson '20
Varsity 2	Kylee Hockaday '17	Haydon Gould '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Maury Smithfield Regatta

Division A

Division B

From the notes