| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Saints | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Grafton High School | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Smithfield High School | Smithfield | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,667 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 12 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.277 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.22 ± 0.55: a typical event, more orderly than 57% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints | 1 | 3.31 school +0.07 | Kyle Pfrang / Bobby Levin Reed Mcallister / Ian Lotz Unreported Sailor / Unreported Sailor 0.60 | 87% | 7–1 (88%) | +0.0 |
| 2 | Grafton High School Varsity | 2 | 1.50 school −0.12 | Noah Navarret / Madeleine Etheridge Lucas Grigorian / Haydon Gould 0.20 Nikki Baldwin / Nikki Baldwin 1.16 | 51% | 5–3 (62%) | +0.9 |
| 3 | Smithfield High School Smithfield | 3 | -0.42 school −0.15 | Connor Green / Ellie Hinkle Sarah Hancock / Charisa Morris Unreported Sailor / Unreported Sailor | 11% | 0–8 (0%) | −0.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Grafton High School | 1.50 | 2.45 | 5–3 | 4.1 | +0.95 | 0.5 | 35% |
| 1 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | 3.31 | 3.32 | 7–1 | 7.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 3 | Smithfield High School | -0.42 | -3.42 | 0–8 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Grigorian | Grafton High School | 0.20 | 1.15 | 5–3 | 4.1 | +0.95 | 0.5 | 35% |
| Nikki Baldwin | Grafton High School | 1.16 | 2.11 | 5–3 | 4.1 | +0.95 | 0.5 | 35% |
| Connor Green | Smithfield High School | -1.13 | -4.13 | 0–8 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Sarah Hancock | Smithfield High School | -0.55 | -3.55 | 0–8 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Unreported Sailor | Smithfield High School | 1.04 | -1.96 | 0–8 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Grafton High School | 78% | |
| 1 | 2 | Grafton High School | Smithfield High School | 85% | |
| 1 | 3 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Smithfield High School | 95% | |
| 2 | 4 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Grafton High School | 80% | |
| 2 | 5 | Grafton High School | Smithfield High School | 82% | |
| 2 | 6 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Smithfield High School | 95% | |
| 3 | 7 | Grafton High School | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | 19% | upset |
| 3 | 8 | Grafton High School | Smithfield High School | 81% | |
| 3 | 9 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Smithfield High School | 95% | |
| 4 | 10 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Grafton High School | 81% | |
| 4 | 11 | Grafton High School | Smithfield High School | 81% | |
| 4 | 12 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Smithfield High School | 95% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 2 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Smithfield | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 3 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Smithfield | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 4 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 5 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Smithfield | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 6 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Smithfield | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Smithfield | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 9 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Smithfield | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 10 | |
Saints | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 11 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Smithfield | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 12 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Smithfield | 3-4-6 DNS |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Saints | Kyle Pfrang '22 Reed Mcallister '22 Unreported Sailor '19 |
Bobby Levin '18 Ian Lotz '18 Unreported Sailor '19 |
|
Grafton High School | Varsity | Lucas Grigorian '17 Nikki Baldwin '14 Noah Navarret '18 |
Haydon Gould '19 Nikki Baldwin '14 Madeleine Etheridge '19 |
|
Smithfield High School | Smithfield | Connor Green '18 Sarah Hancock '16 Unreported Sailor '15 |
Ellie Hinkle '19 Charisa Morris '19 Unreported Sailor '15 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
