VISA Poquoson Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 7 12 19
2 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 8 14 22
3 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 21 4 25
4 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 23 24 47
5 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 35 13 48
6 Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 19 30 49
7 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 15 34 49
8 York High School York High School Varsity 32 20 52
9 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 27 32 59
10 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 33 37 70
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 3 1 1 7 Brendan Little '18
Thomas Walker '17
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1 2 3 2 8 Kaila Pfrang '17
Kyle Pfrang '22
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 4 1 6 4 15 Nathan Smith '20 [1-4]
Christopher Raab '20 [1-2]
Nikki Baldwin '14 [3-4]
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 3 7 4 5 19 Anna Patterson '16
Grace Holloway '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 6 4 8 3 21 Dreugh Phillips '16
Parker Purrington '19
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 5 5 5 8 23 Alexandrea Lingle '19 [1-2]
Byron Armstrong '18 [3-4]
Kate Weaver '18 [1-2]
Sophia Bibbo '20 [3-4]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 8 10 2 7 27 Wilson Hatchett '17
Jack Mckenna '20
York High School York High School Varsity 7 6 9 10 32 Zane Morris '18
Ethan White '20
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 9 8 10 6 33 Cole Handly '19
Emily Butler '19
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 10 9 7 9 35 Neilson Woodfield '16
Mateo Burt '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1 1 1 4 Darden Purrington '16
Chapman Holt '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 3 3 4 12 Zoe Harding '18
Claire Rae '16
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 4 2 2 5 13 Blake Harrington '18 [1-4]
William Thornton '17 [1-2]
Hunter Lawrence '17 [3-4]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 3 4 5 2 14 Harrison Parker '18
Hailey Gilman '17
York High School York High School Varsity 5 5 4 6 20 Daniel Hodges '18
Charlie Gibson '20
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 7 6 8 3 24 Connor Mccrillis '20 [1-4]
Lucien Parker '20 [1-2]
Helen Mccrary '20 [3-4]
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 6 8 6 10 30 Emily Rhodes '16
Micaela Twisdale '16
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 8 7 10 7 32 Catherine Gilmore '17 [1-4]
Brit Cortina '20 [1-2]
Nicholas Rote '17 [3-4]
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 9 9 7 9 34 Noah Navarret '18
Haydon Gould '19
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 10 10 9 8 37 Sam Brady '19
David Michael Jennings '14
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses1133
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity6688
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers5577
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors9911
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores101022
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints3355
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks2244
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms4466
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders7799
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity881010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses2244
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity7799
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers6688
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors101022
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores1133
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints4466
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks3355
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms5577
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders881010
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity9911

Conditions — 03/12/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1023.8 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.3 kn
avg  ·  max 5.5 kn
Gusts to 11.7 kn
From E (101°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine0.1 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1023.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hampton: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.29 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →