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VISA Leukemia Cup Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 11 11 22
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 19 13 32
3 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 23 14 37
4 York High School York High School Varsity 40 32 72
5 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 37 37 74
6 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 28 47 75
7 Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 38 37 75
8 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 35 43 78
9 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 54 49 103
10 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 51 62 113
11 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 65 57 122
12 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 68 68 136
13 Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 77 76 153
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 4 2 1 1 2 1 11 Hector Guzman '16
Sally Johnson '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 6 6 2 2 1 2 19 Boyd Bragg '19
Eric Demario '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1 1 3 5 9 4 23 Darden Purrington '16
Nick Baker '16
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 3 9 6 4 3 3 28 Nathan Smith '20 [1-6]
Haydon Gould '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Christopher Raab '20 [3-4]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 8 5 4 6 5 7 35 Ellie Maus '18
Chris Robertson '19
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 2 7 5 8 10 5 37 Harrison Parker '18
Bobby Levin '18
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 7 4 9 3 7 8 38 Anna Patterson '16
Avery Mcnight '20
York High School York High School Varsity 5 3 8 7 6 11 40 Zane Morris '18 [1-6]
Ethan White '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Ben Clarke '16 [3-4]
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 10 11 11 9 4 6 51 Neilson Woodfield '16
Emily Butler '19
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 9 8 7 10 11 9 54 Sam Brady '19 [1-6]
Jillian Kilgore '16 [1-4]
Morgan Handly '21 [5-6]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 12 10 12 13 8 10 65 Jack Mckenna '20 [1-6]
Hyatt Hadley '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Jackson Raymond '27 [3-4]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 11 12 10 11 12 12 68 Byron Armstrong '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Connor Mccrillis '20 [3-4]
Jalen Rogers '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Will Moore '20 [3-4]
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 13 13 13 12 13 13 77 Raina Hempley '19 [1-6]
Natalie Bender '17 [1-4]
Jaylin Barrett '19 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 11 Brendan Little '18
Zoe Harding '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 2 1 2 1 3 4 13 Austen Freda '17
Alara Sahin '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 3 2 3 3 2 1 14 Daniel Vail '17
Sarah Smith '18
York High School York High School Varsity 4 4 9 6 7 2 32 Daniel Hodges '18
Charlie Gibson '20
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 5 5 4 7 8 8 37 Anna Patterson '16
Anna Patterson '16
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 9 10 5 4 4 5 37 Kyle Pfrang '22
Ricky Cordner '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 6 6 11 5 9 6 43 Joe Morrison '16
Anne Burns '16
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 8 8 10 8 6 7 47 Noah Navarret '18
Madeleine Etheridge '19
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 7 9 8 11 5 9 49 Cole Handly '19
Mallory Soter '20
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 10 11 6 9 11 10 57 Brit Cortina '20
Aaron Jones '20
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 12 7 12 10 10 11 62 Kasey Cordner '16
William Thornton '17
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 11 12 7 12 13 13 68 Lucien Parker '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Alexandrea Lingle '19 [3-4]
Sophia Bibbo '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Kate Weaver '18 [3-4]
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 13 13 13 13 12 12 76 Colton Stevens '17 [1-6]
Erin O'Donnell '19 [1-2]
Jaylin Barrett '19 [3-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.250+0.25
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1113355
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2224466
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity335577
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers446688
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors557799
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores66881010
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints77991111
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 18810101212
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 29911111313
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms1010121211
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders1111131322
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield12121133
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity13132244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1224466
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2335577
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity446688
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers557799
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors66881010
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores77991111
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints8810101212
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 19911111313
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 21010121211
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms1111131322
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders12121133
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield13132244
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity113355
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Hector Guzman '16 Sally Johnson '18
Seahorses 1 Brendan Little '18 Zoe Harding '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Boyd Bragg '19 Eric Demario '18
Seahorses 2 Austen Freda '17 Alara Sahin '18
Grafton High School Grafton High School Nathan Smith '20 [1-6] Haydon Gould '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Christopher Raab '20 [3-4]
Varsity Noah Navarret '18 Madeleine Etheridge '19
Hampton High School Hampton High School Anna Patterson '16 Avery Mcnight '20
Crabbers Anna Patterson '16 Anna Patterson '16
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Sam Brady '19 [1-6] Jillian Kilgore '16 [1-4]
Morgan Handly '21 [5-6]
Warriors Cole Handly '19 Mallory Soter '20
Maury High School Maury High School Byron Armstrong '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Connor Mccrillis '20 [3-4]		 Jalen Rogers '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Will Moore '20 [3-4]
Commodores Lucien Parker '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Alexandrea Lingle '19 [3-4]		 Sophia Bibbo '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Kate Weaver '18 [3-4]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Harrison Parker '18 Bobby Levin '18
Saints Kyle Pfrang '22 Ricky Cordner '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Darden Purrington '16 Nick Baker '16
Oaks 1 Daniel Vail '17 Sarah Smith '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Ellie Maus '18 Chris Robertson '19
Oaks 2 Joe Morrison '16 Anne Burns '16
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Neilson Woodfield '16 Emily Butler '19
Phantoms Kasey Cordner '16 William Thornton '17
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Jack Mckenna '20 [1-6] Hyatt Hadley '29 [1-2, 5-6]
Jackson Raymond '27 [3-4]
Islanders Brit Cortina '20 Aaron Jones '20
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Raina Hempley '19 [1-6] Natalie Bender '17 [1-4]
Jaylin Barrett '19 [5-6]
Smithfield Colton Stevens '17 [1-6] Erin O'Donnell '19 [1-2]
Jaylin Barrett '19 [3-6]
York High School York High School Zane Morris '18 [1-6] Ethan White '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Ben Clarke '16 [3-4]
Varsity Daniel Hodges '18 Charlie Gibson '20

Conditions — 05/07/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1008.6 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From W (280°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover49% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1008.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.15)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.13 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →