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VISA Poquoson Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 2 15 3 18
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 14 8 22
3 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 6 17 23
4 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 23 10 33
5 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 30 3 33
6 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 25 10 35
7 St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Varsity 1 33 11 44
8 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1 36 14 50
9 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 41 21 62
10 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 41 24 65
11 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 48 19 67
12 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 38 30 68
13 York High School York High School Varsity 46 23 69
14 St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Varsity 2 57 28 85
15 Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 55 31 86
16 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 59 28 87
17 St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Varsity 61 28 89
18 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 58 35 93
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 1 1 3 1 6 Alexander Hanna '15
Wilson Hatchett '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 3 2 4 5 14
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 2 4 5 2 4 15 Darden Purrington '16
Matt Wright '19
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 5 4 8 6 23 Jessica Williams '16
Emmaline Herring '16
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 2 3 1 DSQ 25
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 6 11 6 7 30
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Varsity 1 8 7 7 11 33
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1 DSQ 9 5 3 36 Dreugh Phillips '16
Sarah Smith '18
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 14 13 9 2 38 Miles Campbell '16 [1-2]
Henry Eley '18 [3-4]
Mike Keller '17 [1-2]
Henry Waddill '19 [3-4]
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 7 14 11 9 41 Jonathan Rowland '15
Maggie Rowland '16
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 9 6 12 14 41 James Whitmore '16
Rossi Mccall '15
York High School York High School Varsity 10 8 16 12 46 Zane Morris '18
Kylee Hockaday '17
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 13 10 10 15 48 Pierce Scribner '15
Rachel Kilgore '14
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 16 15 14 10 55 Alex Shinn '15
Ramani Perera '15
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Varsity 2 17 17 15 8 57
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 11 16 18 13 58 Morgan Kelly '17
Carson Cooper '18
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 12 18 13 16 59 Neilson Woodfield '16
Kasey Cordner '16
St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Varsity 15 12 17 17 61
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 1 2 3
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 2 2 1 3 Ellie Maus '18
Ashley Obermeyer '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 4 4 8
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 3 7 10
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 7 3 10 Cal Neikirk '15
Emma Burdett '16
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Varsity 1 5 6 11
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1 6 8 14 Daniel Vail '17
Victor Layne '16
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 8 9 17 Kendra Walker '16
Nicole Kublins '15
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 9 10 19 Anna Patterson '16
Rana Fadah '16
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 16 5 21 Gray Kiger '16
Alexander Singh '15
York High School York High School Varsity 12 11 23 Daniel Hodges '18
Lucas Grigorian '17
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 10 14 24 Will Ellson '15
Alexandrea Lingle '19
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Varsity 2 11 17 28
St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Varsity 13 15 28
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 15 13 28 Blake Harrington '18
David Michael Jennings '14
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 14 16 30 Luke Fitzharris '19
Jared Cronin '17
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield DSQ 12 31 Eric Malarkey '15
Grant Rosen '15
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 17 18 35 Stanton Camp '17
Morgan Williams '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 11133
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 215151717
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity10101212
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity14141616
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity881010
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity6688
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 13355
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 2171711
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 12244
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 216161818
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity991111
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Varsity5577
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield7799
St. Catherine's SchoolSt. Catherine's School Varsity13131515
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Varsity 14466
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Varsity 2181822
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity11111313
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity12121414

Division B

Team1B2B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 122
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 21616
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity1111
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity1515
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity99
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity77
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 144
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 21818
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 133
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 21717
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity1010
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Varsity66
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield88
St. Catherine's SchoolSt. Catherine's School Varsity1414
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Varsity 155
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Varsity 211
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity1212
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity1313

Conditions — 09/27/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1022.7 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 6.4 kn
Gusts to 15.7 kn
From NNE (31°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1022.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Hampton: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.79 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →