MASSA Fall Fleet Champs I - NYCC

HostVISA @ NYCC
Date10/17/2015
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christchurch School	Seahorses	28	51	79
2	Key School	Zags	46	42	88
3	Severn School	Admirals	83	48	131
4	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	64	69	133
5	Broadneck High School	Bruins	79	54	133
6	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	84	65	149
7	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	93	62	155
8	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	85	92	177
9	Toms River North	Mariners	80	111	191
10	Annapolis High School	Panthers	80	114	194
11	Southern Regional High School	Rams	130	118	248
12	Southwestern Central High School	Trojans	148	129	277
13	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	126	152	278
14	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	124	155	279
15	Phoebus High School	Varsity	155	140	295
16	Orchard Park High School	Varsity	157	148	305
17	The Stony Brook School	Bears	153	161	314
18	Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity	167	167	334

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
Christchurch School	Seahorses	2	1	6	6	1	1	1	2	1	6	1	28	Hector Guzman '16 Sally Johnson '18
Key School	Zags	5	3	8	5	2	3	4	3	5	1	7	46	Christian Filter '16 Nicholas Papadopoulos '18
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	4	13	4	1	18	4	2	1	4	5	8	64	Dreugh Phillips '16 Sarah Smith '18
Broadneck High School	Bruins	9	5	2	7	12	15	9	4	9	4	3	79	Phillip Schofield '17 Kate Selley '16
Annapolis High School	Panthers	11	2	7	2	15	8	3	9	10	9	4	80	Porter Kavle '18 Kimberly Leonard '18
Toms River North	Mariners	13	10	9	4	3	7	5	12	3	12	2	80	Sean Crabb '16 James Koerner '17
Severn School	Admirals	8	8	1	3	8	16	10	7	7	3	12	83	Connor Bayless '17 Camille White '18
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	6	7	5	9	4	5	15	10	11	2	10	84	James Whitmore '16 Anna Cornetta '16
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	12	11	3	8	5	2	7	16	2	13	6	85	Michael Munger '16 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	10	6	15	10	6	6	14	6	8	7	5	93	Jake Vickers '18 [1-4] Cole Daitch '16 [5-11] Noah Strother '16 [1-6, 9-11] Whitney Kopp '17 [7-8]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	1	4	16	17	7	11	8	17	14	16	13	124	Thomas Quinn '18 [1-11] Juliana Rustum '16 [1-7] Danny Kane '16 [8-11]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	3	16	11	13	10	13	17	8	12	8	15	126	Kaila Pfrang '17 Hailey Gilman '17
Southern Regional High School	Rams	7	17	10	14	9	9	6	5	16	DSQ	18	130	Emily Haig '17 [1-11] Rachel Lange '17 [1-10] Burke Flynn '18 [11]
Southwestern Central High School	Trojans	14	14	17	15	17	10	11	11	15	10	14	148	Luke Tota '20 Aj Smith '18
The Stony Brook School	Bears	18	18	13	16	13	17	12	13	6	11	16	153	Joshua Martin '17 Kimberly Cataudella '16
Phoebus High School	Varsity	16	9	12	11	11	18	16	18	18	15	11	155	Neilson Woodfield '16 [1-11] Kasey Cordner '16 [1-7] Ricky Cordner '19 [8-11]
Orchard Park High School	Varsity	15	12	18	18	14	14	13	14	13	17	9	157	Tanner Probst '17 [1-11] Maxime Legros '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Shaan Legros '16 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity	17	15	14	12	16	12	18	15	17	14	17	167	Henry Eley '18 [1-6, 8-10] Alex Kitay '19 [7] Andrew Frix '18 [11] Henry Waddill '19 [1-7] Chris Bratcher '19 [8-10] Alex Kitay '19 [11]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
Key School	Zags	6	7	4	1	8	2	2	2	8	1	1	42	Harrison Koller '17 [1-11] Isadora Gallanar '17 [1-4, 7-8] Declan Lombard '17 [5-6, 9-11]
Severn School	Admirals	7	6	BKD	2	4	3	6	3	5	2	6	48	Stephanie Houck '17 [1-11] Caroline Mcneil '18 [1-2, 5-6] Blair Reilly '18 [3-4, 7-11]
Christchurch School	Seahorses	5	RDG	6	3	1	1	4	9	10	5	3	51	Boyd Bragg '19 Claire Rae '16
Broadneck High School	Bruins	8	3	3	4	12	9	1	5	1	4	4	54	Philip Davis '16 Katherine Bennett '18
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	2	8	8	10	5	4	5	1	11	6	2	62	Will Comerford '17 Alex Hatch '16
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	3	1	1	7	2	5	3	13	13	7	10	65	Gray Kiger '16 [1-4, 7-8] Jessica Williams '16 [5-6, 9-11] Alek Sas '18 [1-4] Marshall Mccraw '16 [5-11]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	1	2	2	6	7	7	12	4	3	9	16	69	Darden Purrington '16 [1-4, 7-8] Victor Layne '16 [5-6, 9-11] Nick Baker '16 [1-6, 9-11] Daniel Vail '17 [7-8]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	18	5	5	5	3	6	14	11	9	8	8	92	Addie Sellig '16 [1-11] Teddy Schroeder '16 [1-6, 9-11] Jack Scott '18 [7-8]
Toms River North	Mariners	17	9	12	13	9	10	9	10	6	3	13	111	Eddie Harrison '18 Mark Keorner '19
Annapolis High School	Panthers	13	12	18	17	10	11	7	7	2	12	5	114	Remington King '17 [1-4, 7-11] Nicholas Salvesen '18 [5-6] George Kaye '18 [1-6] Sarah Smith '16 [7-11]
Southern Regional High School	Rams	11	15	11	8	6	8	15	15	4	16	9	118	Tom Green '19 [1-11] Michael Scales '16 [1-4, 7-11] Burke Flynn '18 [5-6]
Southwestern Central High School	Trojans	4	10	13	12	13	17	17	6	16	14	7	129	Sebby Turner '16 Jacob Cotter '16
Phoebus High School	Varsity	10	13	15	11	15	13	16	16	7	10	14	140	Blake Harrington '18 [1-11] William Thornton '17 [1-7] Mateo Burt '16 [8-11]
Orchard Park High School	Varsity	9	16	9	14	11	16	10	18	12	15	18	148	Jenna Probst '18 Will Gura '17
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	15	11	10	15	14	18	11	12	17	18	11	152	Harrison Parker '18 [1-11] T.J. Argust '18 [1-6] Bobby Levin '18 [7-8] Alex Wilkerson '19 [9-11]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	14	14	16	18	18	15	8	8	15	17	12	155	Margot Murray '17 [1-11] Sarah Elia '16 [1-6] Mark Freidin '16 [7-11]
The Stony Brook School	Bears	16	18	14	9	17	12	13	14	18	13	17	161	Kadin Via '17 [1-11] Matthew Sparacio '18 [1-8] Michael Bilfinger '17 [9-11]
Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity	12	17	17	16	16	14	18	17	14	11	15	167	Miles Campbell '16 [1-4, 7-11] Jared Cronin '17 [5-6] Alex Kitay '19 [1-6] Henry Waddill '19 [7-11]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.180+0.18

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A
Annapolis High School Panthers	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Broadneck High School Bruins	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Christchurch School Seahorses	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Hampton Roads Academy Varsity	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Key School Zags	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1
Orchard Park High School Varsity	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2
Phoebus High School Varsity	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4
Severn School Admirals	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5
Southern Regional High School Rams	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6
Southwestern Central High School Trojans	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Summit High School Hilltoppers	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
The Stony Brook School Bears	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Toms River North Mariners	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B
Annapolis High School Panthers	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Broadneck High School Bruins	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Christchurch School Seahorses	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Hampton Roads Academy Varsity	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Key School Zags	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2
Orchard Park High School Varsity	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3
Phoebus High School Varsity	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5
Severn School Admirals	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6
Southern Regional High School Rams	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Southwestern Central High School Trojans	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Summit High School Hilltoppers	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
The Stony Brook School Bears	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Toms River North Mariners	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Annapolis High School	Porter Kavle '18	Kimberly Leonard '18
Panthers	Remington King '17 [1-4, 7-11] Nicholas Salvesen '18 [5-6]	George Kaye '18 [1-6] Sarah Smith '16 [7-11]
Archbishop Spalding	Jake Vickers '18 [1-4] Cole Daitch '16 [5-11]	Noah Strother '16 [1-6, 9-11] Whitney Kopp '17 [7-8]
Cavaliers	Will Comerford '17	Alex Hatch '16
Broadneck High School	Phillip Schofield '17	Kate Selley '16
Bruins	Philip Davis '16	Katherine Bennett '18
Christchurch School	Hector Guzman '16	Sally Johnson '18
Seahorses	Boyd Bragg '19	Claire Rae '16
Hampton Roads Academy	Henry Eley '18 [1-6, 8-10] Alex Kitay '19 [7] Andrew Frix '18 [11]	Henry Waddill '19 [1-7] Chris Bratcher '19 [8-10] Alex Kitay '19 [11]
Varsity	Miles Campbell '16 [1-4, 7-11] Jared Cronin '17 [5-6]	Alex Kitay '19 [1-6] Henry Waddill '19 [7-11]
Key School	Christian Filter '16	Nicholas Papadopoulos '18
Zags	Harrison Koller '17 [1-11]	Isadora Gallanar '17 [1-4, 7-8] Declan Lombard '17 [5-6, 9-11]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Kaila Pfrang '17	Hailey Gilman '17
Saints	Harrison Parker '18 [1-11]	T.J. Argust '18 [1-6] Bobby Levin '18 [7-8] Alex Wilkerson '19 [9-11]
Norfolk Academy	James Whitmore '16	Anna Cornetta '16
Bulldogs	Gray Kiger '16 [1-4, 7-8] Jessica Williams '16 [5-6, 9-11]	Alek Sas '18 [1-4] Marshall Mccraw '16 [5-11]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Dreugh Phillips '16	Sarah Smith '18
Oaks	Darden Purrington '16 [1-4, 7-8] Victor Layne '16 [5-6, 9-11]	Nick Baker '16 [1-6, 9-11] Daniel Vail '17 [7-8]
Orchard Park High School	Tanner Probst '17 [1-11]	Maxime Legros '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Shaan Legros '16 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Varsity	Jenna Probst '18	Will Gura '17
Phoebus High School	Neilson Woodfield '16 [1-11]	Kasey Cordner '16 [1-7] Ricky Cordner '19 [8-11]
Varsity	Blake Harrington '18 [1-11]	William Thornton '17 [1-7] Mateo Burt '16 [8-11]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michael Munger '16	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19
Bulldogs	Addie Sellig '16 [1-11]	Teddy Schroeder '16 [1-6, 9-11] Jack Scott '18 [7-8]
Severn School	Connor Bayless '17	Camille White '18
Admirals	Stephanie Houck '17 [1-11]	Caroline Mcneil '18 [1-2, 5-6] Blair Reilly '18 [3-4, 7-11]
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17 [1-11]	Rachel Lange '17 [1-10] Burke Flynn '18 [11]
Rams	Tom Green '19 [1-11]	Michael Scales '16 [1-4, 7-11] Burke Flynn '18 [5-6]
Southwestern Central High School	Luke Tota '20	Aj Smith '18
Trojans	Sebby Turner '16	Jacob Cotter '16
Summit High School	Thomas Quinn '18 [1-11]	Juliana Rustum '16 [1-7] Danny Kane '16 [8-11]
Hilltoppers	Margot Murray '17 [1-11]	Sarah Elia '16 [1-6] Mark Freidin '16 [7-11]
The Stony Brook School	Joshua Martin '17	Kimberly Cataudella '16
Bears	Kadin Via '17 [1-11]	Matthew Sparacio '18 [1-8] Michael Bilfinger '17 [9-11]
Toms River North	Sean Crabb '16	James Koerner '17
Mariners	Eddie Harrison '18	Mark Keorner '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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MASSA Fall Fleet Champs I - NYCC

Division A

Division B

From the notes