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VISA PHS Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 8 7 15
2 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 9 17 26
3 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 13 25 38
4 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 25 14 39
5 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 24 20 44
6 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 28 18 46
7 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 32 26 58
8 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 32 34 66
9 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 29 47 76
10 Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 40 44 84
11 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 31 55 86
12 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 51 35 86
13 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 51 37 88
14 York High School York High School Varsity 48 42 90
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 2 1 3 2 8 Jack Elkin '15
Sally Johnson '18
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 3 2 3 9 James Whitmore '16
Alek Sas '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 9 2 1 1 13 Dreugh Phillips '16
Sarah Smith '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 6 5 4 9 24 Alex Moreno '15
Alara Sahin '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 7 4 6 8 25 Victor Layne '16
Mike Klink '15
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 3 8 11 6 28 Kaila Pfrang '17
Hailey Gilman '17
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 5 10 9 5 29 Nathan Gibson '15
Wilson Hatchett '17
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 4 11 12 4 31 Henry Eley '18
Henry Waddill '19
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 8 9 8 7 32 Anna Patterson '16
Cole Handly '19
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 10 7 5 10 32 Jonathan Rowland '15 [1-4]
Charlotte Hennessy '15 [1-2]
Catherine Cole '19 [3-4]
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 12 6 7 OCS 40 Alex Shinn '15
Eric Malarkey '15
York High School York High School Varsity 11 13 13 11 48 Zane Morris '18
Kylee Hockaday '17
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 13 12 14 12 51 Tyler Cason '18 [1-4]
Andrew Redfearn '19 [1-2]
Maddie Walls '18 [3-4]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 14 14 10 13 51 Kyle Nguyen '15
Jillian Kilgore '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 3 1 1 2 7 Andy Burns '17
Thomas Walker '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 4 4 2 4 14 Ellie Maus '18
Daniel Vail '17
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 6 7 3 1 17 Marshall Mccraw '16 [1-4]
Lawson Montgomery '18 [1-2]
Alexander Singh '15 [3-4]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 2 3 8 5 18 Harrison Parker '18
Sam Brady '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 1 6 4 9 20 Zoe Harding '18
Annabel Carrington '15
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 5 2 OCS 3 25 Darden Purrington '16
Nick Baker '16
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 7 5 6 8 26 Blake Harrington '18
Grace Holloway '17
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 9 8 10 7 34 Charlie White '15
Arden Porter '15
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 8 10 5 12 35 Kasey Cordner '16
Grace Holloway '17
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 11 9 7 10 37 Byron Armstrong '18 [1-4]
Kayla Washington '17 [1-2]
Emily Palmer '18 [3-4]
York High School York High School Varsity 10 12 9 11 42 Daniel Hodges '18
Brian Fox '19
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 13 13 12 6 44 Teresa Bonnin '17 [1-4]
Kelly Ivy '17 [1-2]
Leah Johnson '18 [3-4]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 12 11 11 13 47 Amory Hanes '18
Catherine Gilmore '17
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 14 14 13 14 55 Peter Dister '17 [1-2]
Tyler Cason '17 [3-4]
Duc Nguyen '16 [1-2]
Larkin Rae '18 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 11133
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 212121414
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity6688
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity991111
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 1881010
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 2141422
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity5577
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs3355
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 12244
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2131311
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity7799
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders11111313
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield10101212
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity4466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 12244
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2131311
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity7799
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity10101212
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 1991111
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 21133
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity6688
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs4466
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 13355
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2141422
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity881010
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders12121414
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield11111313
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity5577
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Jack Elkin '15 Sally Johnson '18
Seahorses 1 Andy Burns '17 Thomas Walker '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Alex Moreno '15 Alara Sahin '18
Seahorses 2 Zoe Harding '18 Annabel Carrington '15
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Henry Eley '18 Henry Waddill '19
Varsity Peter Dister '17 [1-2]
Tyler Cason '17 [3-4]		 Duc Nguyen '16 [1-2]
Larkin Rae '18 [3-4]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Kyle Nguyen '15 Jillian Kilgore '16
Varsity Kasey Cordner '16 Grace Holloway '17
Maury High School Maury High School Jonathan Rowland '15 [1-4] Charlotte Hennessy '15 [1-2]
Catherine Cole '19 [3-4]
Varsity 1 Charlie White '15 Arden Porter '15
Maury High School Maury High School Tyler Cason '18 [1-4] Andrew Redfearn '19 [1-2]
Maddie Walls '18 [3-4]
Varsity 2 Byron Armstrong '18 [1-4] Kayla Washington '17 [1-2]
Emily Palmer '18 [3-4]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Kaila Pfrang '17 Hailey Gilman '17
Varsity Harrison Parker '18 Sam Brady '19
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy James Whitmore '16 Alek Sas '18
Bulldogs Marshall Mccraw '16 [1-4] Lawson Montgomery '18 [1-2]
Alexander Singh '15 [3-4]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Dreugh Phillips '16 Sarah Smith '18
Oaks 1 Darden Purrington '16 Nick Baker '16
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Victor Layne '16 Mike Klink '15
Oaks 2 Ellie Maus '18 Daniel Vail '17
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Anna Patterson '16 Cole Handly '19
Varsity Blake Harrington '18 Grace Holloway '17
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Nathan Gibson '15 Wilson Hatchett '17
Islanders Amory Hanes '18 Catherine Gilmore '17
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Alex Shinn '15 Eric Malarkey '15
Smithfield Teresa Bonnin '17 [1-4] Kelly Ivy '17 [1-2]
Leah Johnson '18 [3-4]
York High School York High School Zane Morris '18 Kylee Hockaday '17
Varsity Daniel Hodges '18 Brian Fox '19

Conditions — 03/21/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1018.9 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 7.1 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From W (268°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover43% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1018.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Poquoson: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Poquoson by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Poquoson, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →