Clear Falls High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.45 (fleet 2.35) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–10 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 8–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (11 matches) the record is 2–9 against 2.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-23 | ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | skipper | 1.75 | 1.48 | 2–9 | 2.3 | −0.26 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA West Champs | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.8 | -0.07 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Texas High School Championship | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.6 | 1.25 |
| SEISA Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Mallory Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 14.5 | -0.16 |
| ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| SEISA Doublehanded Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 1.1 | 4.54 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| PCISA Girls Invitational | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.3 | 1.51 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Mallory Trophy - ISSA Doublehanded | Skipper | B | 2 | 18.0 | -1.66 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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