| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Clear Falls High School | Knights | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
All Saints Episcopal | All Saints Episcopal | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 620 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 6 of 7 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.701 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clear Falls High School Knights | 1 | 8.26 home +1.19 | Dane Byerly / Lauren Vande Hei Hunter Skinner / Laura Masterson Anna Willits / Emily Gueldner | 99% | 6–1 (86%) | −1.0 |
| 2 | All Saints Episcopal All Saints Episcopal | 2 | 1.99 | Christophe Chaumont / Cade Crow Zachary Switalski / Matt Albritton Ashlyn Kotarski / Lauris Hillard | 1% | 1–6 (14%) | +0.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | All Saints Episcopal | 1.99 | 5.96 | 1–6 | 0.1 | +3.97 | 3.0 | 5% |
| 1 | Clear Falls High School | 8.26 | 4.29 | 6–1 | 6.9 | −3.97 | 3.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Switalski | All Saints Episcopal | -0.63 | 3.34 | 1–6 | 0.1 | +3.97 | 3.0 | 5% |
| Ashlyn Kotarski | All Saints Episcopal | 1.27 | 5.24 | 1–6 | 0.1 | +3.97 | 3.0 | 5% |
| Anna Willits | Clear Falls High School | 1.81 | -2.16 | 6–1 | 6.9 | −3.97 | 3.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Clear Falls High School | All Saints Episcopal | 99% | |
| 2 | 2 | Clear Falls High School | All Saints Episcopal | 99% | |
| 3 | 3 | Clear Falls High School | All Saints Episcopal | 99% | |
| 4 | 4 | Clear Falls High School | All Saints Episcopal | 99% | |
| 5 | 5 | Clear Falls High School | All Saints Episcopal | 99% | |
| 6 | 6 | All Saints Episcopal | Clear Falls High School | 1% | upset |
| 7 | 7 | Clear Falls High School | All Saints Episcopal | 99% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
All Saints Episcopal | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
All Saints Episcopal | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
All Saints Episcopal | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
All Saints Episcopal | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Knights | def. | |
All Saints Episcopal | ||
| 6 | |
All Saints Episcopal | def. | |
Knights | ||
| 7 | |
Knights | def. | |
All Saints Episcopal | ||
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Clear Falls High School | Knights | Anna Willits '17 Dane Byerly '16 Hunter Skinner '16 |
Emily Gueldner '16 Lauren Vande Hei '16 Laura Masterson '16 |
|
All Saints Episcopal | All Saints Episcopal | Ashlyn Kotarski '18 Christophe Chaumont '18 Zachary Switalski '16 |
Lauris Hillard '18 Cade Crow '17 Matt Albritton '18 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
