Mercy High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.32 (fleet 0.52) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–10 (17%) as crew 5–12 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 2–10 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 5–10 |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | — | 0–2 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 7–20 against 7.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-10-29 | MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.18 | -0.10 | 2–10 | 2.2 | −0.28 | 0.0 | 75% |
| 2016-04-30 | 2016 MASSA Baker Qualifier | crew | 1.58 | 1.61 | 5–10 | 5.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2016 Season | |||||
| NYISA-NW Wed Night Race Day 10/12 | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.0 | — |
| MASSA Keelboat Qualifier Keelboat | Crew | A | 13 | 3.8 | — |
| MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| MASSA Fall Fleet Silver Championship | Skipper | B | 7 | 13.1 | -0.54 |
| Spring 2016 Season | |||||
| 2016 MASSA Spring Silver Championship | Crew | B | 9 | 11.6 | — |
| 2016 MASSA Baker Qualifier | Crew | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2015 Season | |||||
| MASSA Fall Team Race District Championship | Crew | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | William Santos |  McQuaid High School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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