McQuaid High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.31 (fleet 0.50) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–10 (17%) as crew 5–12 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 2–10 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 5–10 |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | — | 0–2 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 7–20 against 7.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-10-29 | MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.18 | -0.10 | 2–10 | 2.2 | −0.28 | 0.0 | 75% |
| 2016-04-30 | 2016 MASSA Baker Qualifier | crew | 1.58 | 1.61 | 5–10 | 5.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Season | |||||
| MASSA Spring Silver Fleet Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.9 | 0.24 |
| Fall 2017 Season | |||||
| NYISA-NW Rochester Race Night | Skipper | A | 3 | 10.7 | -0.64 |
| NYISA-NW Rochester Fall Race Night 3 | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.5 | 0.48 |
| NYISA-NW Fall Fleet Qualifier | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.5 | 0.98 |
| MASSA Silver Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 14.0 | -0.93 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | William Santos |  Mercy High School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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