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MDISA Varsity Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 19 8 27
2 Saints Saints Saints 14 29 43
3 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 35 21 56
4 Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 34 24 58
5 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 51 17 68
6 Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 19 56 75
7 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 38 46 84
8 Falcons Falcons Falcons 37 48 85
9 Towson High School Towson High School Generals 61 34 95
10 Gilman School Gilman School Greyhounds 42 58 100
11 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 67 34 101
12 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 71 38 109
13 Panthers Panthers Panthers 25 85 110
14 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 54 60 114
15 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 56 60 116
16 Gunston Gunston Herons 58 69 127
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Saints Saints Saints 1 5 1 1 6 14
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 2 4 3 3 7 19 Nick Budington '21 [1-4]
Friso Grolleman '20 [5]
Liam Gronda '21 [1-4]
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 3 11 2 2 1 19 Colman Schofield '21
Matthew Boothby '21
Panthers Panthers Panthers 6 1 9 5 4 25
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 8 9 6 9 2 34 Peter Lobaugh '20
Nick Bus '21
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 5 2 7 8 13 35 Ava Farley '22
Caroline Kelly '19
Falcons Falcons Falcons 9 6 4 4 14 37
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 10 13 5 7 3 38 Arin Bekem '22 [1-5]
Sophia Kotschoubey '20 [1]
Cole Wharton '22 [2-5]
Gilman School Gilman School Greyhounds 15 3 10 6 8 42 Blake Vogel '22
Tate Bothner '20
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 4 10 14 13 10 51 Jackson Montague '21
Francesca Penati '22
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 11 8 12 14 9 54 James Corckran '19
Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 13 7 13 11 12 56 Bryce Ricewoolf '20
Rachel O'Neil '20
Gunston Gunston Herons 7 15 16 15 5 58 Phillip Ashley '19 [1-5]
Cora Duncan '19 [1-3, 5]
Marion Riddle '21 [4]
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 14 14 8 10 15 61 Reese Meyers '23
Conner Sciullo '22
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 12 12 15 DSQ 11 67 Sunny Sturmer '19
Sarah Rosa '20
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 16 16 11 12 16 71 Catherine Krissoff '19 [1-2, 5]
Christopher Callaghan '20 [3-4]
Olivia Taylor '19 [1-2, 5]
Riley Foster '20 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 1 2 3 1 1 8 Matt Budington '21
C. Augie Spendley '19
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 7 1 2 2 5 17 Arabella Dixon '21
Caden Meuller '22
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 5 4 5 4 3 21 Anna Groszkowski '22
Ty Ryan '22
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 2 9 4 5 4 24 Gabe Paier '21
Aidan Young '20
Saints Saints Saints 3 5 1 3 DSQ 29
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 4 6 7 7 10 34 Matthew Collinson '20
Mary Nolan '21
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 6 3 6 8 11 34 Will Dryer '20
Izzy Wu '22
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 10 7 10 9 2 38 Jennifer Tennant '19
Catherine Nguyen '19
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 13 13 8 6 6 46 Jackson Barlow '20 [1]
Henry Haddon '20 [2-5]
Ethan Schwartz '20 [1]
Falcons Falcons Falcons 9 8 9 14 8 48
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 8 12 13 11 12 56 William Bernhardt '21
Patrick Elwood '20
Gilman School Gilman School Greyhounds 11 15 11 12 9 58 Connor Vogel '20 [1-2]
Marina Dryer '22 [3-5]
Mike Buscemi '20 [1-2]
Thomas Krulak '22 [3-5]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 14 10 12 10 14 60 Ally Snead '19
Olivia Boucher '21
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 15 11 14 13 7 60 Hunter Ward '20
Vaughan Hood '20
Gunston Gunston Herons 12 14 15 15 13 69 Maccallum Borghardt '20 [1-2, 4-5]
Grafton Howard '19 [3]
Katie Staley '19 [1-2, 4-5]
Panthers Panthers Panthers DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 85
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.220+0.22
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
PanthersPanthers Panthers11335
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers22446
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron33557
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights446618
Gilman SchoolGilman School Greyhounds55779
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles779911
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres1818101012
FalconsFalcons Falcons99111113
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks1010121214
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights1212141416
SaintsSaints Saints1111131315
GunstonGunston Herons66181810
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals131315151
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates141416162
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity1515113
Yorktown High SchoolYorktown High School Patriots1616224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
PanthersPanthers Panthers22444
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers33555
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron44666
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights55777
Gilman SchoolGilman School Greyhounds66181818
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles1818101010
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres99111111
FalconsFalcons Falcons1010121212
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks1111131313
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights1313151515
SaintsSaints Saints1212141414
GunstonGunston Herons77999
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals1414161616
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates1515111
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity1616222
Yorktown High SchoolYorktown High School Patriots11333
School / Team SkipperCrew
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Ava Farley '22 Caroline Kelly '19
Cavaliers Anna Groszkowski '22 Ty Ryan '22
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Nick Budington '21 [1-4]
Friso Grolleman '20 [5]		 Liam Gronda '21 [1-4]
Battlin' Baron Matt Budington '21 C. Augie Spendley '19
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Peter Lobaugh '20 Nick Bus '21
Knights Gabe Paier '21 Aidan Young '20
Gilman School Gilman School Blake Vogel '22 Tate Bothner '20
Greyhounds Connor Vogel '20 [1-2]
Marina Dryer '22 [3-5]		 Mike Buscemi '20 [1-2]
Thomas Krulak '22 [3-5]
Gunston Gunston Phillip Ashley '19 [1-5] Cora Duncan '19 [1-3, 5]
Marion Riddle '21 [4]
Herons Maccallum Borghardt '20 [1-2, 4-5]
Grafton Howard '19 [3]		 Katie Staley '19 [1-2, 4-5]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School James Corckran '19 Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22
Eagles Ally Snead '19 Olivia Boucher '21
South River High School South River High School Bryce Ricewoolf '20 Rachel O'Neil '20
Seahawks Hunter Ward '20 Vaughan Hood '20
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Catherine Krissoff '19 [1-2, 5]
Christopher Callaghan '20 [3-4]		 Olivia Taylor '19 [1-2, 5]
Riley Foster '20 [3-4]
Knights Jennifer Tennant '19 Catherine Nguyen '19
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sunny Sturmer '19 Sarah Rosa '20
Sabres Matthew Collinson '20 Mary Nolan '21
Towson High School Towson High School Reese Meyers '23 Conner Sciullo '22
Generals Will Dryer '20 Izzy Wu '22
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Jackson Montague '21 Francesca Penati '22
Pirates Arabella Dixon '21 Caden Meuller '22
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Arin Bekem '22 [1-5] Sophia Kotschoubey '20 [1]
Cole Wharton '22 [2-5]
Varsity Jackson Barlow '20 [1]
Henry Haddon '20 [2-5]		 Ethan Schwartz '20 [1]
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Colman Schofield '21 Matthew Boothby '21
Patriots William Bernhardt '21 Patrick Elwood '20

Conditions — 10/06/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1021.5 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 82°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.6 kn
avg  ·  max 5.1 kn
Gusts to 14.6 kn
From ENE (61°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover37% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1021.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Bethesda - Chevy Cha/Bishop O'Connell H.S/Walt Whitman/Yorktown: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.19 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bethesda - Chevy Cha/Bishop O'Connell H.S/Walt Whitman/Yorktown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Bethesda - Chevy Cha/Bishop O'Connell H.S/Walt Whitman/Yorktown, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →