BCSC 2018 Fall Varsity Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 11 3 14
2 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 22 9 31
3 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 12 20 32
4 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 26 15 41
5 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 21 25 46
6 Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 9 39 48
7 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 31 17 48
8 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 42 9 51
9 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 26 29 55
10 Key School Key School Zags 28 29 57
11 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 24 41 65
12 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 15 50 65
13 Towson High School Towson High School Generals 40 27 67
14 Gilman School Gilman School Greyhounds 31 37 68
15 Chopticon High School Chopticon High School Braves 43 31 74
16 Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 39 36 75
17 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 39 41 80
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 2 5 2 9 Colman Schofield '21
Matthew Boothby '21
Severn School Severn School Admirals 3 7 1 11 Sam Bruce '20
Addi Harris '20
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 8 1 3 12 Olivia Sowa '20
Braedon Myers '20
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 9 2 4 15 Arin Bekem '22
Henry Haddon '20
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 1 6 14 21 Daniel Unangst '20
Steven Twemlow '20
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 10 4 8 22 Nick Budington '21
Liam Gronda '21
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 4 13 7 24 No Show
No Show
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 7 3 16 26 Matthew Collinson '20
Caroline James '20
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 12 9 5 26 Carter O'Neill '20
Adam Ginsburg '23
Key School Key School Zags 6 16 6 28 Charles Anderson '21
Molly Roden '22
Gilman School Gilman School Greyhounds 5 15 11 31 Marina Dryer '21
Ethan Rushlow '20
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 13 8 10 31 Ava Farley '22
Caroline Kelly '19
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 14 10 15 39 James Corckran '19
Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 16 11 12 39 Arabella Dixon '21
Hannah Leggett '20
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 11 12 17 40 Ethan Rushlow '20 [1-2]
Olivia Yazigi '19 [3]
Bernadette Brezinski '19 [1-3]
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 15 14 13 42 Bryce Ricewoolf '20
Rachel O'Neil '20
Chopticon High School Chopticon High School Braves 17 17 9 43 Dale Vanmeter '19
Audrey Commerford '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 3 Madeline Hawkins '20
Rees Tindall '21
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 2 4 BKD 9 Matt Budington '21
C. Augie Spendley '19
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 4 3 2 9 Dylan Saxman '21
Hunter Ward '20
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 5 5 5 15 Thomas Johnson '20
Isabella Fadullon '23
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 7 2 8 17 Anna Groszkowski '22 [1-3]
Noelle Owen '19 [1-2]
Leah Sweeney '19 [3]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 9 8 3 20 Lucy Paskoff '20
Finn Ludwig '23
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 3 15 7 25 Tyler Egeli '20
Emily Williams '20
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 10 7 10 27 Reese Meyers '23
Patrick Galloway '20
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 6 17 6 29 Sunny Sturmer '19
Sarah Rosa '20
Key School Key School Zags 12 6 11 29 Luke Koerschner '20 [1-2]
Max Shapiro '20 [3]
Emma Kissel '22 [1-3]
Chopticon High School Chopticon High School Braves 8 9 14 31 Will Miller '20
Joseph Mcgraw '19
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 15 12 9 36 Gabe Paier '21
Nick Bus '21
Gilman School Gilman School Greyhounds 11 13 13 37 Connor Vogel '20
Michael Buscemi '19
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 13 14 12 39 William Bernhardt '21
Dexter Mueller '19
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 14 11 16 41 No Show
No Show
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 16 10 15 41 Ally Snead '19
Olivia Boucher '21
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 17 16 17 50 Jackson Barlow '20
Sam Rifkind-Brown '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers113
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers224
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron335
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights446
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins557
Chopticon High SchoolChopticon High School Braves6618
Gilman SchoolGilman School Greyhounds779
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets181810
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles9911
Key SchoolKey School Zags101012
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders111113
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres121214
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals131315
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks141416
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals151517
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity16161
Yorktown High SchoolYorktown High School Patriots17172

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers224
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers335
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron446
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights557
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins6618
Chopticon High SchoolChopticon High School Braves779
Gilman SchoolGilman School Greyhounds181810
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets9911
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles101012
Key SchoolKey School Zags111113
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders121214
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres131315
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals141416
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks151517
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals16161
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity17172
Yorktown High SchoolYorktown High School Patriots113
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Carter O'Neill '20 Adam Ginsburg '23
Panthers Thomas Johnson '20 Isabella Fadullon '23
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Ava Farley '22 Caroline Kelly '19
Cavaliers Anna Groszkowski '22 [1-3] Noelle Owen '19 [1-2]
Leah Sweeney '19 [3]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Nick Budington '21 Liam Gronda '21
Battlin' Baron Matt Budington '21 C. Augie Spendley '19
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Arabella Dixon '21 Hannah Leggett '20
Knights Gabe Paier '21 Nick Bus '21
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School No Show No Show
Bruins No Show No Show
Chopticon High School Chopticon High School Dale Vanmeter '19 Audrey Commerford '21
Braves Will Miller '20 Joseph Mcgraw '19
Gilman School Gilman School Marina Dryer '21 Ethan Rushlow '20
Greyhounds Connor Vogel '20 Michael Buscemi '19
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Olivia Sowa '20 Braedon Myers '20
Hornets Lucy Paskoff '20 Finn Ludwig '23
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School James Corckran '19 Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22
Eagles Ally Snead '19 Olivia Boucher '21
Key School Key School Charles Anderson '21 Molly Roden '22
Zags Luke Koerschner '20 [1-2]
Max Shapiro '20 [3]
Emma Kissel '22 [1-3]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Daniel Unangst '20 Steven Twemlow '20
Raiders Tyler Egeli '20 Emily Williams '20
Severn School Severn School Sam Bruce '20 Addi Harris '20
Admirals Madeline Hawkins '20 Rees Tindall '21
South River High School South River High School Bryce Ricewoolf '20 Rachel O'Neil '20
Seahawks Dylan Saxman '21 Hunter Ward '20
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Matthew Collinson '20 Caroline James '20
Sabres Sunny Sturmer '19 Sarah Rosa '20
Towson High School Towson High School Ethan Rushlow '20 [1-2]
Olivia Yazigi '19 [3]
Bernadette Brezinski '19 [1-3]
Generals Reese Meyers '23 Patrick Galloway '20
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Arin Bekem '22 Henry Haddon '20
Varsity Jackson Barlow '20 Sam Rifkind-Brown '20
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Colman Schofield '21 Matthew Boothby '21
Patriots William Bernhardt '21 Dexter Mueller '19

Conditions — 09/30/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1027.1 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.5 kn
avg  ·  max 5.9 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From SE (139°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover28% Sunshine8.9 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1027.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Towson: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.32 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Towson by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Towson: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →