DC Sail Varsity FR

HostDCSail
Date03/11/2018
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	South River High School	Seahawks	8	4	12
2	St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	11	14	25
3	Key School	Zags	19	16	35
4	Yorktown High School	Patriots	24	13	37
5	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	23	15	38
6	Leonardtown High School	Raiders	26	30	56
7	Great Mills High School	Hornets	26	36	62
8	Severna Park	Falcons	31	32	63
9	Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	34	30	64
10	Bishop O'Connell High School	Knights	22	44	66
11	Walt Whitman High School	Varsity	43	38	81
12	St. Mary's Ryken	Knights	46	41	87

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
South River High School	Seahawks	2	3	2	1	8	Leo Boucher '18 [1-4] Rachel O'Neil '20 [1-2] Bryce Ricewoolf '20 [3-4]
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	3	5	1	2	11	James Golden '20 Bridget Bisson '21
Key School	Zags	9	2	4	4	19	Will Cornell '21 Max Shapiro '20
Bishop O'Connell High School	Knights	4	1	8	9	22	Peter Lobaugh '20 [1-2] Henry Myrick '20 [3-4] Hannah Leggett '20 [1-2] Emma Oosterveld '19 [3-4]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	1	4	DSQ	5	23	Nick Budington '21 Dexter Mueller '19
Yorktown High School	Patriots	5	10	3	6	24	Colman Schofield '21 Matthew Boothby '21
Leonardtown High School	Raiders	6	7	5	8	26	Daniel Unangst '20 Julia Marino '20
Great Mills High School	Hornets	7	9	7	3	26	Lucy Paskoff '20 [1-2] Olivia Sowa '20 [3-4] Hannah Carlsen '19 [1-2] Lucy Paskoff '20 [3-4]
Severna Park	Falcons	10	8	6	7	31	Kate Riley '18 Camden Ward '20
Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	8	6	9	11	34	Sunny Sturmer '19 [1-4] Sarah Rosa '20 [1-2] Ally Shearon '18 [3-4]
Walt Whitman High School	Varsity	11	12	10	10	43	Kelsey Bonham '18 Henry Haddon '20
St. Mary's Ryken	Knights	12	11	11	12	46	Catherine Krissoff '19 [1-2] Colin Thomas '19 [3-4] Christopher Callaghan '20 [1-2] Conor Flynn '18 [3-4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
South River High School	Seahawks	1	1	1	1	4	Tyler Mowry '18 [1-4] Laurel Bollinger '20 [1-2] Hunter Ward '20 [3-4]
Yorktown High School	Patriots	5	3	2	3	13	Megan Gimple '18 [1-4] William Bernhardt '21 [1-2] Ava Rotondo '20 [3-4]
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	4	2	4	4	14	Michael Bisson '18 Juliette Troxell '21
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	3	4	3	5	15	Matt Budington '21 [1-2] Aidan Young '20 [3-4] Elizabeth Huebner '19 [1-2] Sophie Ann Boorstin '18 [3-4]
Key School	Zags	2	5	7	2	16	Charles Anderson '21 [1-4] Griffin Dugan '21 [1-2] Alexander Abbott '18 [3-4]
Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	7	8	6	9	30	Caroline James '20 Mary Nolan '21
Leonardtown High School	Raiders	8	7	5	10	30	Emily Williams '20 Ryan Lacey '18
Severna Park	Falcons	6	6	8	12	32	Stanley Galloway '18 Maddie Lenhart '19
Great Mills High School	Hornets	9	9	10	8	36	Mark Morris '18 Finn Ludwig '23
Walt Whitman High School	Varsity	11	10	11	6	38	Jackson Barlow '20 Sophia Kotschoubey '20
St. Mary's Ryken	Knights	10	11	9	11	41	Jennifer Tennant '19 Catherine Nguyen '19
Bishop O'Connell High School	Knights	12	DNF	12	7	44	Frank Lucchetti '18 Will Leggett '18

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron	1	1	3	3
Bishop O'Connell High School Knights	2	2	13	13
Great Mills High School Hornets	3	3	5	5
Key School Zags	13	13	6	6
Leonardtown High School Raiders	5	5	7	7
Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	6	6	8	8
Severna Park Falcons	7	7	9	9
South River High School Seahawks	8	8	10	10
St. Mary's Ryken Knights	10	10	12	12
St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	9	9	11	11
Walt Whitman High School Varsity	11	11	1	1
Yorktown High School Patriots	12	12	2	2

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron	2	2	13	13
Bishop O'Connell High School Knights	3	3	5	5
Great Mills High School Hornets	13	13	6	6
Key School Zags	5	5	7	7
Leonardtown High School Raiders	6	6	8	8
Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	7	7	9	9
Severna Park Falcons	8	8	10	10
South River High School Seahawks	9	9	11	11
St. Mary's Ryken Knights	11	11	1	1
St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	10	10	12	12
Walt Whitman High School Varsity	12	12	2	2
Yorktown High School Patriots	1	1	3	3

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Nick Budington '21	Dexter Mueller '19
Battlin' Baron	Matt Budington '21 [1-2] Aidan Young '20 [3-4]	Elizabeth Huebner '19 [1-2] Sophie Ann Boorstin '18 [3-4]
Bishop O'Connell High School	Peter Lobaugh '20 [1-2] Henry Myrick '20 [3-4]	Hannah Leggett '20 [1-2] Emma Oosterveld '19 [3-4]
Knights	Frank Lucchetti '18	Will Leggett '18
Great Mills High School	Lucy Paskoff '20 [1-2] Olivia Sowa '20 [3-4]	Hannah Carlsen '19 [1-2] Lucy Paskoff '20 [3-4]
Hornets	Mark Morris '18	Finn Ludwig '23
Key School	Will Cornell '21	Max Shapiro '20
Zags	Charles Anderson '21 [1-4]	Griffin Dugan '21 [1-2] Alexander Abbott '18 [3-4]
Leonardtown High School	Daniel Unangst '20	Julia Marino '20
Raiders	Emily Williams '20	Ryan Lacey '18
Severna Park	Kate Riley '18	Camden Ward '20
Falcons	Stanley Galloway '18	Maddie Lenhart '19
South River High School	Leo Boucher '18 [1-4]	Rachel O'Neil '20 [1-2] Bryce Ricewoolf '20 [3-4]
Seahawks	Tyler Mowry '18 [1-4]	Laurel Bollinger '20 [1-2] Hunter Ward '20 [3-4]
St. Mary's High School (MD)	James Golden '20	Bridget Bisson '21
Saints	Michael Bisson '18	Juliette Troxell '21
St. Mary's Ryken	Catherine Krissoff '19 [1-2] Colin Thomas '19 [3-4]	Christopher Callaghan '20 [1-2] Conor Flynn '18 [3-4]
Knights	Jennifer Tennant '19	Catherine Nguyen '19
Sts. Peter & Paul	Sunny Sturmer '19 [1-4]	Sarah Rosa '20 [1-2] Ally Shearon '18 [3-4]
Sabres	Caroline James '20	Mary Nolan '21
Walt Whitman High School	Kelsey Bonham '18	Henry Haddon '20
Varsity	Jackson Barlow '20	Sophia Kotschoubey '20
Yorktown High School	Colman Schofield '21	Matthew Boothby '21
Patriots	Megan Gimple '18 [1-4]	William Bernhardt '21 [1-2] Ava Rotondo '20 [3-4]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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DC Sail Varsity FR

Division A

Division B

From the notes