SCC JV Fleet Regatta

HostSCC
Date09/15/2018
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	North East River High School	Road Warriors	9	8	17
2	Severn School	Admirals	11	8	19
3	Chopticon High School	Braves	29	21	50
4	Patuxent	Panthers	18	35	53
5	Georgetown Day School	Georgetown Day	28	32	60
6	Leonardtown High School	Raiders	36	26	62
7	St. Mary's Ryken	Knights 1	28	45	73
8	Broadneck High School	Bruins	43	32	75
9	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	38	38	76
10	Walt Whitman High School	Varsity	44	36	80
11	St. Mary's Ryken	Knights 2	49	53	102

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
North East River High School	Road Warriors	2	1	1	4	1	9	Skylor Sweet '22 Lauren O'Neill '20
Severn School	Admirals	1	2	2	2	4	11	No Show No Show
Patuxent	Panthers	3	5	4	1	5	18	Carolyn Wilson '20 Megan Roberts '20
St. Mary's Ryken	Knights 1	5	4	8	3	8	28	Brady Kinslow '20 Nicholas Fernbaugh '20
Georgetown Day School	Georgetown Day	7	11	3	5	2	28	No Show No Show
Chopticon High School	Braves	4	3	7	DNS	3	29	Dale Vanmeter '19 Shaun Ransford '19
Leonardtown High School	Raiders	10	7	6	7	6	36	Addison Musick '20 Hannah Davis '20
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	6	8	5	DNF	7	38	Seamus Seerey '20 Pierce Rizzo '22
Broadneck High School	Bruins	11	6	9	6	11	43	Paul Speca '22 [1-5] Lily Newman '21 [1-4] Tyler Hughes '22 [5]
Walt Whitman High School	Varsity	8	9	10	8	9	44	No Show No Show
St. Mary's Ryken	Knights 2	9	10	11	9	10	49	Ethan Strain '21 [1-2, 5] Kaitlyn Lamb '22 [3-4] Daniel Papp '22 [1-2, 5] Alyssa Johnson '22 [3-4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Severn School	Admirals	1	2	1	2	2	8	No Show No Show
North East River High School	Road Warriors	3	1	2	1	1	8	Ian Ronald '21 Elizabeth Cottage '21
Chopticon High School	Braves	4	6	4	3	4	21	Will Miller '20 Joseph Mcgraw '19
Leonardtown High School	Raiders	6	3	3	7	7	26	Tehya Gaines '21 Kyle Edwards '20
Georgetown Day School	Georgetown Day	7	4	5	6	10	32	No Show No Show
Broadneck High School	Bruins	8	10	6	5	3	32	Jon Weed '22 [1-5] Emilie Orendorff '22 [1-4] Lili Taber '22 [5]
Patuxent	Panthers	5	8	7	9	6	35	Henry Meiser '23 [1-2, 5] Perrin Hupp '20 [3-4] Grace Wilson '23 [1-2] Henry Meiser '23 [3-4] Perrin Hupp '20 [5]
Walt Whitman High School	Varsity	2	5	DNF	DNS	5	36	No Show No Show
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	10	7	9	4	8	38	Joaquin Marquez '21 Ryan Wood '22
St. Mary's Ryken	Knights 1	9	11	8	8	9	45	Campbell Earhart '22 [1-2] Abigail Hupp '22 [3-5] Alex Howard '22 [1-2] Kaitlyn Brouillette '20 [3-5]
St. Mary's Ryken	Knights 2	11	9	DNS	10	11	53	Abigail Cosgrove '22 [1-2] Sofia Sherman '22 [3-5] Cate Kinslow '22 [1-2] Jack Harper '22 [3-5]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.050+0.05

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	1	1	3	3	5
Broadneck High School Bruins	2	2	4	4	6
Chopticon High School Braves	3	3	5	5	7
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day	4	4	6	6	8
Leonardtown High School Raiders	5	5	7	7	9
North East River High School Road Warriors	6	6	8	8	10
Patuxent Panthers	7	7	9	9	11
Severn School Admirals	8	8	10	10	1
St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1	9	9	11	11	2
St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2	10	10	1	1	3
Walt Whitman High School Varsity	11	11	2	2	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	2	2	4	4	6
Broadneck High School Bruins	3	3	5	5	7
Chopticon High School Braves	4	4	6	6	8
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day	5	5	7	7	9
Leonardtown High School Raiders	6	6	8	8	10
North East River High School Road Warriors	7	7	9	9	11
Patuxent Panthers	8	8	10	10	1
Severn School Admirals	9	9	11	11	2
St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1	10	10	1	1	3
St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2	11	11	2	2	4
Walt Whitman High School Varsity	1	1	3	3	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Archbishop Spalding	Seamus Seerey '20	Pierce Rizzo '22
Cavaliers	Joaquin Marquez '21	Ryan Wood '22
Broadneck High School	Paul Speca '22 [1-5]	Lily Newman '21 [1-4] Tyler Hughes '22 [5]
Bruins	Jon Weed '22 [1-5]	Emilie Orendorff '22 [1-4] Lili Taber '22 [5]
Chopticon High School	Dale Vanmeter '19	Shaun Ransford '19
Braves	Will Miller '20	Joseph Mcgraw '19
Georgetown Day School	No Show	No Show
Georgetown Day	No Show	No Show
Leonardtown High School	Addison Musick '20	Hannah Davis '20
Raiders	Tehya Gaines '21	Kyle Edwards '20
North East River High School	Skylor Sweet '22	Lauren O'Neill '20
Road Warriors	Ian Ronald '21	Elizabeth Cottage '21
Patuxent	Carolyn Wilson '20	Megan Roberts '20
Panthers	Henry Meiser '23 [1-2, 5] Perrin Hupp '20 [3-4]	Grace Wilson '23 [1-2] Henry Meiser '23 [3-4] Perrin Hupp '20 [5]
Severn School	No Show	No Show
Admirals	No Show	No Show
St. Mary's Ryken	Brady Kinslow '20	Nicholas Fernbaugh '20
Knights 1	Campbell Earhart '22 [1-2] Abigail Hupp '22 [3-5]	Alex Howard '22 [1-2] Kaitlyn Brouillette '20 [3-5]
St. Mary's Ryken	Ethan Strain '21 [1-2, 5] Kaitlyn Lamb '22 [3-4]	Daniel Papp '22 [1-2, 5] Alyssa Johnson '22 [3-4]
Knights 2	Abigail Cosgrove '22 [1-2] Sofia Sherman '22 [3-5]	Cate Kinslow '22 [1-2] Jack Harper '22 [3-5]
Walt Whitman High School	No Show	No Show
Varsity	No Show	No Show

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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SCC JV Fleet Regatta

Division A

Division B

From the notes