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MDISA Fleet Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 15 13 28
2 Yorktown Yorktown Patriots 27 39 66
3 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 46 35 81
4 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 43 44 87
5 Key School Key School Zags 38 62 100
6 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 52 52 104
7 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 70 46 116
8 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 49 71 120
9 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 79 70 149
10 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 93 76 169
11 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 87 87 174
12 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 103 107 210
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 3 1 1 3 3 1 15 Thomas Sitzmann '23 [1-6]
Owen Hennessey '21 [7-9]
Raam Fox '22 [1-4]
Scarlett Harris '24 [5-6, 9]
Alex Brenia '22 [7-8]
Yorktown Yorktown Patriots 4 3 3 2 2 4 2 2 5 27 Colman Schofield '21 [1-9]
Sofia Forsberg '25 [1-5]
Linnea Forsberg '21 [6-9]
Key School Key School Zags 2 8 4 1 5 7 1 4 6 38 Charles Anderson '21
Stella Kim '23
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 6 4 2 8 6 8 5 1 3 43 Ava Farley '22
Joaquin Marquez '21
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 9 7 5 7 3 2 4 5 4 46 Nick Budington '21
Liam Gronda '21
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 3 5 6 5 4 5 7 6 8 49 Audrey Commerford '21
Makenna Labor '21
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 5 2 7 4 8 3 12 9 2 52 Jon Weed '22
Will Harding '22
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 10 6 8 9 7 6 6 7 11 70 Cole Wiegand '21
Zoe Hoctor '21
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 7 9 10 6 10 9 8 10 10 79 Jonathan Stevenson '23
Daniel Aaron '23
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 8 10 9 10 11 11 11 8 9 87 Cole Canuel '22
Connor Lawrence '22
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 12 12 12 11 9 10 9 11 7 93 Derick Fahnestock '22 [1-9]
Phoebe Tate Anderson '24 [1-8]
Grace Wilson '23 [9]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 11 11 11 12 12 12 10 12 12 103 Alex Howard '22
Christian Wirth '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 13 Robby Meek '23 [1-4]
Zander King '21 [5-9]
Lily Baker '23 [1-4]
Rees Tindall '21 [5-9]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 2 2 2 4 2 1 7 9 6 35 Matt Budington '21
Anna Grolleman '22
Yorktown Yorktown Patriots 9 4 5 6 3 5 3 1 3 39 Conrad Schofield '23
Alexa Bodor '21
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 5 5 3 2 5 10 5 7 2 44 Hugh Carty '23
Ty Ryan '22
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 7 6 6 3 4 7 4 4 5 46 William Cornell '21
Amelia Johnson '21
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 4 8 8 5 10 6 1 6 4 52 Morgan Carew '21
Emilie Orendorff '22
Key School Key School Zags 6 3 9 7 6 11 9 3 8 62 Molly Wrinn '20
Marissa Loftus '21
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 10 9 7 10 7 2 8 8 9 70 Lochlann Ludwig '21
Clare Greenwell '22
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 8 10 4 9 8 8 6 11 7 71 Sterling Maggard '23
Jack Devito '24
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 3 7 11 8 11 4 11 10 11 76 Aviah Dufek '22 [1-9]
Grace Wilson '23 [1-4, 7-9]
Phoebe Tate Anderson '24 [5-6]
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 12 11 10 11 9 9 10 5 10 87 Adam Ginsburg '21
Asha Myers '22
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 107 Caeden Wirth '22 [1-9]
Katie Howard '23 [1-4]
Kristina Zarate '22 [5-9]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers181818181818181818
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers161616161616161616
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron131313131313131313
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins121212121212121212
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets111111111111111111
Key SchoolKey School Zags101010101010101010
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders999999999
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers888888888
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals777777777
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights222222222
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints333333333
YorktownYorktown Patriots111111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers181818181818181818
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers161616161616161616
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron131313131313131313
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins121212121212121212
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets111111111111111111
Key SchoolKey School Zags101010101010101010
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders999999999
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers888888888
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals777777777
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights222222222
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints333333333
YorktownYorktown Patriots111111111
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Cole Canuel '22 Connor Lawrence '22
Panthers Adam Ginsburg '21 Asha Myers '22
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Ava Farley '22 Joaquin Marquez '21
Cavaliers Hugh Carty '23 Ty Ryan '22
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Nick Budington '21 Liam Gronda '21
Battlin' Baron Matt Budington '21 Anna Grolleman '22
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Jon Weed '22 Will Harding '22
Bruins Morgan Carew '21 Emilie Orendorff '22
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Jonathan Stevenson '23 Daniel Aaron '23
Hornets Lochlann Ludwig '21 Clare Greenwell '22
Key School Key School Charles Anderson '21 Stella Kim '23
Zags Molly Wrinn '20 Marissa Loftus '21
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Audrey Commerford '21 Makenna Labor '21
Raiders Sterling Maggard '23 Jack Devito '24
Patuxent Patuxent Derick Fahnestock '22 [1-9] Phoebe Tate Anderson '24 [1-8]
Grace Wilson '23 [9]
Panthers Aviah Dufek '22 [1-9] Grace Wilson '23 [1-4, 7-9]
Phoebe Tate Anderson '24 [5-6]
Severn School Severn School Thomas Sitzmann '23 [1-6]
Owen Hennessey '21 [7-9]		 Raam Fox '22 [1-4]
Scarlett Harris '24 [5-6, 9]
Alex Brenia '22 [7-8]
Admirals Robby Meek '23 [1-4]
Zander King '21 [5-9]		 Lily Baker '23 [1-4]
Rees Tindall '21 [5-9]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Cole Wiegand '21 Zoe Hoctor '21
Saints William Cornell '21 Amelia Johnson '21
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Alex Howard '22 Christian Wirth '21
Knights Caeden Wirth '22 [1-9] Katie Howard '23 [1-4]
Kristina Zarate '22 [5-9]
Yorktown Yorktown Colman Schofield '21 [1-9] Sofia Forsberg '25 [1-5]
Linnea Forsberg '21 [6-9]
Patriots Conrad Schofield '23 Alexa Bodor '21

Conditions — 04/10/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1013.9 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.6 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 14.6 kn
From ESE (121°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1013.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn · SW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Great Mills/Leonardtown High: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.04 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Great Mills/Leonardtown High by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at Great Mills/Leonardtown High).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →