MDISA SSA Gold Fleet

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 14 17 31
2 Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 24 12 36
3 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 40 21 61
4 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 33 41 74
5 Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 45 32 77
6 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 44 34 78
7 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 47 32 79
8 Stone Ridge Stone Ridge Stone Ridge 37 51 88
9 Key School Key School Zags 22 70 92
10 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 39 65 104
11 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 70 34 104
12 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 61 62 123
13 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 72 76 148
14 Gunston Gunston Herons 85 85 170
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 1 4 1 1 5 2 14 Nick Budington '21
Liam Gronda '21
Key School Key School Zags 2 6 2 3 2 7 22 Charles Anderson '21
Stella Kim '23
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 4 2 7 4 1 6 24 Zander King '21
Rees Tindall '21
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 3 3 6 6 7 8 33 William Cornell '21
Amelia Johnson '21
Stone Ridge Stone Ridge Stone Ridge 13 13 5 2 3 1 37 Willem Desimone '24
Linnea Forsberg '21
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 9 1 10 8 6 5 39 Ben Chitterling '21
Janie Powell '21
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 6 8 9 5 9 3 40 Isabella Fadullon '21
Adam Ginsburg '21
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 10 5 3 7 8 11 44 Ava Farley '22
Joaquin Marquez '21
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 7 7 13 10 4 4 45 Ava Cornell '24
Scarlett Harris '24
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 5 9 4 9 10 10 47 Jon Weed '22
Will Harding '22
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 8 10 8 DSQ 11 9 61 Audrey Commerford '21
Makenna Labor '21
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 12 11 11 12 12 12 70 Jonathan Stevenson '23
Daniel Aaron '23
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 11 12 12 11 13 13 72 Alexandra Mullery '22
Christian Wirth '21
Gunston Gunston Herons 14 14 14 13 DNS DNS 85 Helen Boone '21 [1-2]
Robbie Wilmer '24 [3-6]
Hannah Worth '21 [1-2]
Ian Kissel '23 [3-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 7 1 1 1 12 Owen Hennessey '21
Alex Brenia '22
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 2 3 2 3 4 3 17 Matt Budington '21 [1-6]
Ryan Tatelbaum '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Anna Grolleman '22 [3-4]
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 3 6 6 2 2 2 21 Cole Canuel '22
Connor Lawrence '22
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 4 7 3 6 3 9 32 Jack O'Donnell '21
Lila Gibson '22
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 5 5 1 9 7 5 32 Morgan Carew '21 [1-6]
Emilie Orendorff '22 [1-4]
Charlie Bullock '23 [5-6]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 7 2 5 4 8 8 34 Griffin Richardson '21
Claire Woynerowski '22
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 10 4 4 7 5 4 34 Lochlann Ludwig '21
Clare Greenwell '22
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 6 9 9 5 6 6 41 Cole Wiegand '21
Zoe Hoctor '21
Stone Ridge Stone Ridge Stone Ridge 9 8 8 8 11 7 51 No Show
Sofia Forsberg '25
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 8 12 10 12 10 10 62 Sterling Maggard '23
Jack Devito '24
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 11 11 12 10 9 12 65 Zach Hammel '21 [1-5]
Ben Chitterling '21 [6]
Janie Powell '21 [1-5]
Zach Hammel '21 [6]
Key School Key School Zags 14 10 11 11 13 11 70 Andrew Baker '24
Marissa Loftus '21
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 12 13 13 13 12 13 76 Alex Howard '22
Nace Hayden '21
Gunston Gunston Herons 13 14 14 14 DNS DNS 85 Julia Buchanan '23
Grace Anne Philips '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.240+0.24
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers111111
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers222222
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron333333
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins555555
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets666666
Key SchoolKey School Zags888888
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders999999
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 1101010101010
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 2111111111111
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons121212121212
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights141414141414
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints131313131313
Stone RidgeStone Ridge Stone Ridge151515151515
GunstonGunston Herons777777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers111111
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers222222
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron333333
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins555555
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets666666
Key SchoolKey School Zags888888
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders999999
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 1101010101010
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 2111111111111
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons121212121212
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights141414141414
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints131313131313
Stone RidgeStone Ridge Stone Ridge151515151515
GunstonGunston Herons777777
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Isabella Fadullon '21 Adam Ginsburg '21
Panthers Cole Canuel '22 Connor Lawrence '22
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Ava Farley '22 Joaquin Marquez '21
Cavaliers Griffin Richardson '21 Claire Woynerowski '22
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Nick Budington '21 Liam Gronda '21
Battlin' Baron Matt Budington '21 [1-6] Ryan Tatelbaum '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Anna Grolleman '22 [3-4]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Jon Weed '22 Will Harding '22
Bruins Morgan Carew '21 [1-6] Emilie Orendorff '22 [1-4]
Charlie Bullock '23 [5-6]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Jonathan Stevenson '23 Daniel Aaron '23
Hornets Lochlann Ludwig '21 Clare Greenwell '22
Gunston Gunston Helen Boone '21 [1-2]
Robbie Wilmer '24 [3-6]
Hannah Worth '21 [1-2]
Ian Kissel '23 [3-6]
Herons Julia Buchanan '23 Grace Anne Philips '23
Key School Key School Charles Anderson '21 Stella Kim '23
Zags Andrew Baker '24 Marissa Loftus '21
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Audrey Commerford '21 Makenna Labor '21
Raiders Sterling Maggard '23 Jack Devito '24
Severn School Severn School Zander King '21 Rees Tindall '21
Admirals 1 Owen Hennessey '21 Alex Brenia '22
Severn School Severn School Ava Cornell '24 Scarlett Harris '24
Admirals 2 Jack O'Donnell '21 Lila Gibson '22
Severna Park Severna Park Ben Chitterling '21 Janie Powell '21
Falcons Zach Hammel '21 [1-5]
Ben Chitterling '21 [6]
Janie Powell '21 [1-5]
Zach Hammel '21 [6]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) William Cornell '21 Amelia Johnson '21
Saints Cole Wiegand '21 Zoe Hoctor '21
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Alexandra Mullery '22 Christian Wirth '21
Knights Alex Howard '22 Nace Hayden '21
Stone Ridge Stone Ridge Willem Desimone '24 Linnea Forsberg '21
Stone Ridge No Show Sofia Forsberg '25

Conditions — 03/27/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1021.1 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 18.9 kn
From S (175°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1021.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Archbishop Spalding/Broadneck: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.12 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Archbishop Spalding/Broadneck by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Archbishop Spalding/Broadneck, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →