MDISA SSA Gold Fleet Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 11 7 18
2 Key School Key School Zags 20 19 39
3 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 23 19 42
4 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 21 39 60
5 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 44 35 79
6 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 49 34 83
7 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 35 50 85
8 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 46 42 88
9 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 32 64 96
10 Stone Ridge Stone Ridge Stone Ridge 56 44 100
11 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 68 57 125
12 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 70 72 142
13 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 82 64 146
14 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 90 90 180
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 5 2 1 1 1 11 Thomas Sitzmann '23
Raam Fox '22
Key School Key School Zags 2 1 5 4 4 4 20 Charles Anderson '21
Stella Kim '23
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 4 3 8 2 2 2 21 Audrey Commerford '21
Makenna Labor '21
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 3 2 3 3 9 3 23 Nick Budington '21 [1-6]
Liam Gronda '21 [1-4]
Simon Ringler '22 [5-6]
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 6 9 1 6 3 7 32 Ben Chitterling '21
Janie Powell '21
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 5 6 4 5 7 8 35 Jon Weed '22 [1-4]
Morgan Carew '21 [5-6]
Morgan Carew '21 [1-4]
Charlie Bullock '23 [5-6]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 12 8 6 8 5 5 44 Cole Wiegand '21
Bridget Bisson '22
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 7 4 7 7 6 DSQ 46 Hugh Carty '23
Ty Ryan '22
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 9 7 9 10 8 6 49 Isabella Fadullon '21
Adam Ginsburg '21
Stone Ridge Stone Ridge Stone Ridge 8 10 10 9 10 9 56 Willem Desimone '24
Linnea Forsberg '21
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 11 13 11 11 12 10 68 Jackson Park '22
Noah Wigglesworth '22
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 13 11 12 12 11 11 70 Hartley Cooper '26 [1-6]
Brody Wilson '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Robert Norbury '24 [3-4]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 10 12 DNS DNS DNS DNS 82 Jonathan Stevenson '23
Daniel Aaron '23
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 90 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 2 1 7 Robby Meek '23
Lily Baker '23
Key School Key School Zags 2 5 3 4 3 2 19 Charles Anderson '21
Stella Kim '23
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 3 3 2 2 5 4 19 Matt Budington '21
Ryan Tatelbaum '21
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 5 4 6 8 8 3 34 Cole Canuel '22
Connor Lawrence '22
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 7 2 7 6 1 12 35 William Donald '24
Emma Kissell '21
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 6 10 5 5 6 7 39 Sterling Maggard '23
Jack Devito '24
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 4 7 8 3 9 11 42 Anna Groszkowski '22 [1-6]
Addison Lisiewski '22 [1-4]
Preston Fitzgerald '22 [5-6]
Stone Ridge Stone Ridge Stone Ridge 10 6 9 7 4 8 44 No Show
Sofia Forsberg '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 12 8 4 9 7 10 50 Tyler Hughes '22
Lily Newman '21
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 9 11 10 11 10 6 57 Corbin Voorhes '21
Theo Ransom '22
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 11 12 13 12 11 5 64 Zach Hammel '21
Ted Glister '24
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 13 9 11 10 12 9 64 Jonathan Stevenson '23
Daniel Aaron '23
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 8 13 12 13 13 13 72 Armand Otmishi '24
Joshua Sambrano '22
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 90 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers111111
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers222222
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron333333
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins555555
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets666666
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers777777
Key SchoolKey School Zags888888
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders999999
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres151515151515
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals101010101010
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons111111111111
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights131313131313
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints121212121212
Stone RidgeStone Ridge Stone Ridge141414141414

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers111111
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers222222
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron333333
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins555555
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets666666
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers777777
Key SchoolKey School Zags888888
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders999999
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres151515151515
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals101010101010
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons111111111111
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights131313131313
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints121212121212
Stone RidgeStone Ridge Stone Ridge141414141414
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Isabella Fadullon '21 Adam Ginsburg '21
Panthers Cole Canuel '22 Connor Lawrence '22
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Hugh Carty '23 Ty Ryan '22
Cavaliers Anna Groszkowski '22 [1-6] Addison Lisiewski '22 [1-4]
Preston Fitzgerald '22 [5-6]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Nick Budington '21 [1-6] Liam Gronda '21 [1-4]
Simon Ringler '22 [5-6]
Battlin' Baron Matt Budington '21 Ryan Tatelbaum '21
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Jon Weed '22 [1-4]
Morgan Carew '21 [5-6]
Morgan Carew '21 [1-4]
Charlie Bullock '23 [5-6]
Bruins Tyler Hughes '22 Lily Newman '21
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Jonathan Stevenson '23 Daniel Aaron '23
Hornets Jonathan Stevenson '23 Daniel Aaron '23
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Jackson Park '22 Noah Wigglesworth '22
Buccaneers Corbin Voorhes '21 Theo Ransom '22
Key School Key School Charles Anderson '21 Stella Kim '23
Zags Charles Anderson '21 Stella Kim '23
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Audrey Commerford '21 Makenna Labor '21
Raiders Sterling Maggard '23 Jack Devito '24
Severn School Severn School Thomas Sitzmann '23 Raam Fox '22
Admirals Robby Meek '23 Lily Baker '23
Severna Park Severna Park Ben Chitterling '21 Janie Powell '21
Falcons Zach Hammel '21 Ted Glister '24
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Cole Wiegand '21 Bridget Bisson '22
Saints William Donald '24 Emma Kissell '21
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken No Show No Show
Knights No Show No Show
Stone Ridge Stone Ridge Willem Desimone '24 Linnea Forsberg '21
Stone Ridge No Show Sofia Forsberg '25
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Hartley Cooper '26 [1-6] Brody Wilson '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Robert Norbury '24 [3-4]
Sabres Armand Otmishi '24 Joshua Sambrano '22

Conditions — 04/03/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 37%  ·  Pressure 1029.2 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 32°F
Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 6.3 kn
Gusts to 14.6 kn
From WNW (290°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover29% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity37% Pressure1029.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Severn Sailing Association: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.36 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Severn Sailing Association by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Severn Sailing Association, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →