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SCC JV regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 6 6 12
2 Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 9 27 36
3 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 27 30 57
4 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 2 35 36 71
5 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 24 55 79
6 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 34 45 79
7 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 46 36 82
8 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 43 40 83
9 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 41 51 92
10 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 1 56 41 97
11 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 58 41 99
12 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 65 35 100
13 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1 51 53 104
14 Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day 56 61 117
15 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2 56 64 120
16 Key School Key School Zags 64 60 124
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 2 1 1 1 6 Teddy Cromwell '20
Jack O'Donnell '21
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 2 1 2 2 2 9 Patrick Dolan '21
Maddi Meyer '20
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 3 6 9 3 3 24 Seamus Seerey '20
Joaquin Marquez '21
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 8 3 6 4 6 27 Tehya Gaines '21
Hannah Davis '20
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 4 9 BYE 10 4 34 Corbin Voorhes '21 [1-2, 5]
Aliya Berger '20 [3-4]
Mary Macdonald '21 [1-2, 5]
Grace Slacum '20 [3-4]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 2 5 5 10 8 7 35 Paul Speca '22 [1-3]
Katie White '20 [4-5]
Tyler Hughes '22 [1-3]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 7 10 3 6 15 41 No Show
No Show
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 10 BYE 5 16 8 43 Ole Singelstad '21 [1-2, 5]
Brandon Kealy '23 [3-4]
Joshua Sambrano '22 [1-2, 5]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 6 15 4 5 16 46 Will Morrissey '19 [1-4]
Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22 [5]
Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22 [1-4]
Eli Fortier '22 [5]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1 12 11 8 7 13 51 Brady Kinslow '20
Nicholas Fernbaugh '20
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day 11 8 12 14 11 56 No Show
No Show
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2 13 7 13 9 14 56 Ethan Strain '21
Caeden Wirth '22
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 1 14 12 7 11 12 56 Jon Weed '22 [1-5]
Emilie Orendorff '22 [1-3]
Alix Mitchell '23 [4-5]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 9 13 14 12 10 58 Henry Meiser '23
John Kollar '24
Key School Key School Zags 15 14 15 15 5 64 James Madison '23
Sam Rodilosso '21
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 16 16 11 13 9 65 Julia Sullivan '22
Andrew Norris '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 2 1 1 1 6 Zander King '21
Raam Fox '22
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 3 11 6 5 2 27 Ella May Corckran '22
Hayden Lamb '20
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 12 5 2 2 9 30 Gabe Gutierrez '20
Kyle Edwards '20
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 4 10 3 10 8 35 Jonathan Stevenson '23
Fletcher Sullivan '24
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 5 8 12 4 7 36 Maeve Drury '19
Olivia Boucher '21
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 2 6 4 8 13 5 36 Andrew White '21
Lily Newman '21
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 11 1 11 6 11 40 Amy Christopherson '21
Ryleigh Kealy '21
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 7 6 5 11 12 41 Perrin Hupp '20
Derick Fahnestock '22
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 1 8 9 15 3 6 41 Sam Tucker '22
Lili Taber '22
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 10 7 10 14 4 45 Doug Macdonald '19 [1-2, 5]
Stephen Ruffennach '20 [3-4]
Riley Van Liew '20 [1-2, 5]
Weston Randolph '22 [3-4]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 2 15 4 16 14 51 No Show
No Show
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1 9 3 16 15 10 53 Abigail Hupp '22 [1-2, 5]
Abigail Cosgrove '22 [3-4]
Kaitlyn Brouillette '20 [1-2, 5]
Cate Kinslow '22 [3-4]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 16 12 7 7 13 55 Alex Treff '22 [1-5]
Brennan Dahany '22 [1-3]
Ryan Wood '22 [4-5]
Key School Key School Zags 15 16 14 12 3 60 Stella Kim '23
Jacqueline Mednick '22
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day 14 13 9 8 DNS 61 No Show
No Show
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2 13 14 13 9 15 64 Campbell Earhart '22 [1-2, 5]
Alyssa Johnson '22 [3-4]
Alex Howard '22 [1-2, 5]
Kaitlyn Lamb '22 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers11335
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron22446
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins 133557
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins 244668
Georgetown Day SchoolGeorgetown Day School Georgetown Day55779
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets668810
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles779911
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers88101012
Key SchoolKey School Zags99111113
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders1010121214
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers1111131315
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres1212141416
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 1131315151
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 2141416162
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 11515113
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 21616224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers22446
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron33557
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins 144668
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins 255779
Georgetown Day SchoolGeorgetown Day School Georgetown Day668810
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets779911
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles88101012
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers99111113
Key SchoolKey School Zags1010121214
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders1111131315
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers1212141416
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres131315151
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 1141416162
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 21515113
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 11616224
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 211335
School / Team SkipperCrew
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Seamus Seerey '20 Joaquin Marquez '21
Cavaliers Alex Treff '22 [1-5] Brennan Dahany '22 [1-3]
Ryan Wood '22 [4-5]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS No Show No Show
Battlin' Baron No Show No Show
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Jon Weed '22 [1-5] Emilie Orendorff '22 [1-3]
Alix Mitchell '23 [4-5]
Bruins 1 Sam Tucker '22 Lili Taber '22
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Paul Speca '22 [1-3]
Katie White '20 [4-5]		 Tyler Hughes '22 [1-3]
Bruins 2 Andrew White '21 Lily Newman '21
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School No Show No Show
Georgetown Day No Show No Show
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Julia Sullivan '22 Andrew Norris '20
Hornets Jonathan Stevenson '23 Fletcher Sullivan '24
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Will Morrissey '19 [1-4]
Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22 [5]		 Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22 [1-4]
Eli Fortier '22 [5]
Eagles Maeve Drury '19 Olivia Boucher '21
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Corbin Voorhes '21 [1-2, 5]
Aliya Berger '20 [3-4]		 Mary Macdonald '21 [1-2, 5]
Grace Slacum '20 [3-4]
Buccaneers Doug Macdonald '19 [1-2, 5]
Stephen Ruffennach '20 [3-4]		 Riley Van Liew '20 [1-2, 5]
Weston Randolph '22 [3-4]
Key School Key School James Madison '23 Sam Rodilosso '21
Zags Stella Kim '23 Jacqueline Mednick '22
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Tehya Gaines '21 Hannah Davis '20
Raiders Gabe Gutierrez '20 Kyle Edwards '20
Patuxent Patuxent Henry Meiser '23 John Kollar '24
Panthers Perrin Hupp '20 Derick Fahnestock '22
Severn School Severn School Teddy Cromwell '20 Jack O'Donnell '21
Admirals 1 Zander King '21 Raam Fox '22
Severn School Severn School Patrick Dolan '21 Maddi Meyer '20
Admirals 2 Ella May Corckran '22 Hayden Lamb '20
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Brady Kinslow '20 Nicholas Fernbaugh '20
Knights 1 Abigail Hupp '22 [1-2, 5]
Abigail Cosgrove '22 [3-4]		 Kaitlyn Brouillette '20 [1-2, 5]
Cate Kinslow '22 [3-4]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Ethan Strain '21 Caeden Wirth '22
Knights 2 Campbell Earhart '22 [1-2, 5]
Alyssa Johnson '22 [3-4]		 Alex Howard '22 [1-2, 5]
Kaitlyn Lamb '22 [3-4]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Ole Singelstad '21 [1-2, 5]
Brandon Kealy '23 [3-4]		 Joshua Sambrano '22 [1-2, 5]
Sabres Amy Christopherson '21 Ryleigh Kealy '21

Conditions — 10/20/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1007.9 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 8.8 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From WSW (256°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine3.2 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1007.9 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Great Mills/Leonardtown High: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.01 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Great Mills/Leonardtown High by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at Great Mills/Leonardtown High).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →