Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.13 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–2 (80%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 8–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 8–2 against 5.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-18 | DC Sail TR | skipper | 0.52 | 2.20 | 8–2 | 5.8 | +1.69 | 1.9 | 11% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Fall '22 DC Sail T1 | Skipper | A, B | — | — | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA JV Fleet Regatta St.Mary's Ryken | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.0 | — |
| Christchurch Spring Intersectional Kick Off | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.0 | 1.41 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SCC JV regatta | Skipper | A, B | 20 | 9.2 | A 0.31 · B -0.52 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| DC Sail TR | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SCC JV Fleet Race | Skipper | A, B | 20 | 10.6 | A -0.88 · B 0.73 |
| SCC JV Regatta | Skipper | A, B | 16 | 4.5 | A 2.48 · B 1.29 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| DC Sail JV 15 boat FR | Crew | B | 4 | 8.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
