NERHS JV Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 6 9 15
2 North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 12 8 20
3 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 23 20 43
4 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 20 25 45
5 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 25 29 54
6 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 22 34 56
7 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 35 36 71
8 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 43 29 72
9 Key School Key School Zags 39 35 74
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 1 1 1 1 6 Teddy Cromwell '20
Hayden Lamb '20
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 3 2 3 2 2 12 Ian Ronald '21
Lauren O'Neill '20
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 6 3 4 3 4 20 Jon Weed '22 [1-5]
Emilie Orendorff '22 [1-4]
Will Harding '22 [5]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 4 4 2 6 6 22 Bay Macquilliam '21
Libby Schug '20
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1 5 6 4 7 23 Iain Shand '19 [1-2]
Ellie Sekowski '19 [3-4]
Jamie Cottage '23 [5]
Ellie Sekowski '19 [1-2, 5]
Jamie Cottage '23 [3-4]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 5 7 5 5 3 25 Michael Hinrichs '22
Addison Lisiewski '22
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 9 6 8 7 5 35 Jackson Park '22
Alexander Read '22
Key School Key School Zags 7 9 7 8 8 39 Stella Kim '23
Zipei Zheng '22
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 8 8 9 9 9 43 Julia Sullivan '22
Sophie Dorey '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 1 1 2 2 2 8 Skylor Sweet '22
Isabella Webb '21
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 2 1 3 1 9 Jack O'Donnell '21
Cole Petrinko '21
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 3 9 4 1 3 20 Morgan Essex '19 [1-5]
Elizabeth Cottage '21 [1-2]
Henry Stockman '22 [3-5]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 4 5 3 9 4 25 Ethan Telep '22 [1-5]
Will Harding '22 [1-2]
Abby Fisher '22 [3-5]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 6 4 7 6 6 29 Finn Ludwig '23
Clare Greenwell '22
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 9 6 5 4 5 29 No Show
No Show
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 7 7 6 5 9 34 Addison Musick '20
Alex Silva '21
Key School Key School Zags 8 3 9 8 7 35 No Show
No Show
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 5 8 8 7 8 36 Corbin Voorhes '21 [1-2]
Alex Park '20 [3-5]
Mary Macdonald '20 [1-2]
Brett Coulson '20 [3-5]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers11335
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins22446
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets33557
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers44668
Key SchoolKey School Zags55779
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders66881
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors77992
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals88113
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates99224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers22446
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins33557
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets44668
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers55779
Key SchoolKey School Zags66881
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders77992
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors88113
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals99224
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates11335
School / Team SkipperCrew
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Michael Hinrichs '22 Addison Lisiewski '22
Cavaliers No Show No Show
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Jon Weed '22 [1-5] Emilie Orendorff '22 [1-4]
Will Harding '22 [5]
Bruins Ethan Telep '22 [1-5] Will Harding '22 [1-2]
Abby Fisher '22 [3-5]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Julia Sullivan '22 Sophie Dorey '21
Hornets Finn Ludwig '23 Clare Greenwell '22
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Jackson Park '22 Alexander Read '22
Buccaneers Corbin Voorhes '21 [1-2]
Alex Park '20 [3-5]
Mary Macdonald '20 [1-2]
Brett Coulson '20 [3-5]
Key School Key School Stella Kim '23 Zipei Zheng '22
Zags No Show No Show
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Bay Macquilliam '21 Libby Schug '20
Raiders Addison Musick '20 Alex Silva '21
North East River High School North East River High School Ian Ronald '21 Lauren O'Neill '20
Road Warriors Skylor Sweet '22 Isabella Webb '21
Severn School Severn School Teddy Cromwell '20 Hayden Lamb '20
Admirals Jack O'Donnell '21 Cole Petrinko '21
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Iain Shand '19 [1-2]
Ellie Sekowski '19 [3-4]
Jamie Cottage '23 [5]
Ellie Sekowski '19 [1-2, 5]
Jamie Cottage '23 [3-4]
Pirates Morgan Essex '19 [1-5] Elizabeth Cottage '21 [1-2]
Henry Stockman '22 [3-5]

Conditions — 04/28/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1013.2 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 11.0 kn
Gusts to 26.0 kn
From N (2°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover54% Sunshine7.6 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1013.2 hPa Rain0.05 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at North East: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.22 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at North East by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at North East, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →