MDISA SCC JV Fleet race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 6 12 18
2 North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 11 13 24
3 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 16 16 32
4 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 20 25 45
5 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 41 15 56
6 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 29 44 73
7 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 25 53 78
8 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 40 43 83
9 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 51 43 94
10 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 56 39 95
11 Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day 49 54 103
12 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2 51 59 110
13 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 57 56 113
14 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1 60 53 113
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 BKD 1 2 6 Patrick Dolan '21
Audrey Klepper '21
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 2 4 1 3 1 11 Skylor Sweet '22
Henry Stockman '22
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 3 2 3 4 4 16 Cole Wiegand '21
No Show
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 4 3 2 6 5 20 Jon Weed '22
Emilie Orendorff '22
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 7 6 4 5 3 25 Nick Savage '23 [1-5]
Wyatt Grimm '22 [1-4]
Caroline Odell '23 [5]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 6 5 5 7 6 29 Michael Hinrichs '22
Addison Lisiewski '22
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 5 7 6 14 8 40 Corbin Voorhes '21 [1-2]
Jackson Park '22 [3-4]
Doug Macdonald '19 [5]
Sean Moynihan '21 [1-2, 5]
Noah Wigglesworth '22 [3-4]
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 12 9 11 2 7 41 Zach Hammel '21
Janie Powell '21
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day 8 14 9 9 9 49 Brady Briggs '22 [1-2, 5]
Max Lawall '19 [3-4]
Sarah Henderson '20 [1-2, 5]
Noah Sapiro '22 [3-4]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 9 11 12 8 11 51 Jonathan Stevenson '23
Clare Greenwell '22
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2 10 10 8 11 12 51 Alex Howard '22
Caeden Wirth '22
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 13 8 13 12 10 56 Henry Meiser '23
William Western '23
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 11 12 7 13 14 57 Bay Macquilliam '21
Alex Silva '21
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1 14 13 10 10 13 60 Alexandra Mullery '22
Jillian Downey '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 2 4 1 4 12 Jack O'Donnell '21
Cole Petrinko '22
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 5 3 1 3 1 13 Morgan Essex '19
Ellie Sekowski '19
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 2 6 2 2 3 15 Ben Chitterling '21
No Show
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 3 1 3 4 5 16 William Donald '24
Lucy Duckett '21
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 4 4 8 7 2 25 Tyler Hughes '22
Caleb Willetts '22
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 10 8 5 8 8 39 Derick Fahnestock '22
Caroline Mederos '24
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 6 5 13 5 14 43 Doug Macdonald '19 [1-2]
Aliya Berger '20 [3-5]
Katie Norman '19 [1-2]
Mary Macdonald '21 [3-5]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 8 11 6 12 6 43 Finn Ludwig '23 [1-2]
Peter Morris '23 [3-5]
Peter Morris '23 [1-2]
Finn Ludwig '23 [3-5]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 11 7 9 10 7 44 Danny Pereira '21
No Show
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 7 12 10 11 13 53 Carmen Fowler '22 [1-5]
Caroline Odell '23 [1-2]
Juliet Plaster '23 [3-5]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1 12 9 14 6 12 53 Abigail Hupp '22
Matt Getson '20
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day 9 14 12 9 10 54 Max Mollinoff '23
Grace Corbett '22
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 13 10 11 13 9 56 Conner Anderson '21 [1-2, 5]
Glynis Rossi '23 [3-4]
Glynis Rossi '23 [1-2, 5]
Conner Anderson '21 [3-4]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2 14 13 7 14 11 59 Timothy Dixon '20
Cole Cantu '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers11335
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron22446
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins33557
Georgetown Day SchoolGeorgetown Day School Georgetown Day44668
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets55779
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers668810
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders779911
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors88101012
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers99111113
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals1010121214
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons111113131
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 11313113
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 21414224
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints121214142

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers22446
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron33557
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins44668
Georgetown Day SchoolGeorgetown Day School Georgetown Day55779
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets668810
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers779911
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders88101012
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors99111113
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers1010121214
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals111113131
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons121214142
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 11414224
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 211335
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints1313113
School / Team SkipperCrew
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Michael Hinrichs '22 Addison Lisiewski '22
Cavaliers Danny Pereira '21 No Show
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Nick Savage '23 [1-5] Wyatt Grimm '22 [1-4]
Caroline Odell '23 [5]
Battlin' Baron Carmen Fowler '22 [1-5] Caroline Odell '23 [1-2]
Juliet Plaster '23 [3-5]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Jon Weed '22 Emilie Orendorff '22
Bruins Tyler Hughes '22 Caleb Willetts '22
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School Brady Briggs '22 [1-2, 5]
Max Lawall '19 [3-4]
Sarah Henderson '20 [1-2, 5]
Noah Sapiro '22 [3-4]
Georgetown Day Max Mollinoff '23 Grace Corbett '22
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Jonathan Stevenson '23 Clare Greenwell '22
Hornets Finn Ludwig '23 [1-2]
Peter Morris '23 [3-5]
Peter Morris '23 [1-2]
Finn Ludwig '23 [3-5]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Corbin Voorhes '21 [1-2]
Jackson Park '22 [3-4]
Doug Macdonald '19 [5]
Sean Moynihan '21 [1-2, 5]
Noah Wigglesworth '22 [3-4]
Buccaneers Doug Macdonald '19 [1-2]
Aliya Berger '20 [3-5]
Katie Norman '19 [1-2]
Mary Macdonald '21 [3-5]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Bay Macquilliam '21 Alex Silva '21
Raiders Conner Anderson '21 [1-2, 5]
Glynis Rossi '23 [3-4]
Glynis Rossi '23 [1-2, 5]
Conner Anderson '21 [3-4]
North East River High School North East River High School Skylor Sweet '22 Henry Stockman '22
Road Warriors Morgan Essex '19 Ellie Sekowski '19
Patuxent Patuxent Henry Meiser '23 William Western '23
Panthers Derick Fahnestock '22 Caroline Mederos '24
Severn School Severn School Patrick Dolan '21 Audrey Klepper '21
Admirals Jack O'Donnell '21 Cole Petrinko '22
Severna Park Severna Park Zach Hammel '21 Janie Powell '21
Falcons Ben Chitterling '21 No Show
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Cole Wiegand '21 No Show
Saints William Donald '24 Lucy Duckett '21
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Alexandra Mullery '22 Jillian Downey '20
Knights 1 Abigail Hupp '22 Matt Getson '20
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Alex Howard '22 Caeden Wirth '22
Knights 2 Timothy Dixon '20 Cole Cantu '22

Conditions — 05/04/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1010.1 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 68°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.6 kn
avg  ·  max 6.0 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From NW (309°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover84% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1010.1 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Great Mills/Leonardtown High: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.16
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.46 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Great Mills/Leonardtown High by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (16 labelled days at Great Mills/Leonardtown High).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →