Kent Island Fall JV #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 4 4 8
2 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 13 21 34
3 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 20 15 35
4 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 1 26 10 36
5 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 11 29 40
6 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 32 22 54
7 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 24 31 55
8 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 25 33 58
9 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 35 23 58
10 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2 31 32 63
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 4 Teddy Cromwell '20
Jack O'Donnell '21
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 2 5 2 2 11 Jon Weed '22 [1-4]
Emilie Orendorff '22 [1-2]
Ryan Lipchak '22 [3-4]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 3 3 4 3 13 Carolyn Wilson '20
Megan Roberts '20
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 7 6 3 4 20 Ole Singelstad '21
Ryleigh Kealy '21
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 4 2 10 8 24 Amy Hilla '18
Will Delong '18
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 6 8 5 6 25 Maeve Drury '19
Olivia Boucher '21
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 1 9 4 8 5 26 Doug Macdonald '19 [1-2]
Aliya Berger '20 [3-4]
Scott Carlsen '20 [1-2]
Grace Slacum '20 [3-4]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2 8 9 7 7 31 Ellie Yorio '20 [1-2]
Ivy Mayher '20 [3-4]
Peyton Bergeron '22 [1-2]
Meghan Mastroberti '20 [3-4]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 5 7 9 DNS 32 Alex Treff '22 [1-2]
Joaquin Marquez '21 [3-4]
Joaquin Marquez '21 [1-2]
Ryan Wood '22 [3-4]
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 10 10 6 9 35 Accidental Gybe '15 [1-2]
Aidan Young '20 [3-4]
Capsize One '15 [1-2]
Capsize Two '15 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 4 Zander King '21
Raam Fox '22
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 1 2 2 3 3 10 Jackson Park '22 [1-2]
Alex Park '20 [3-4]
Noah Wigglesworth '22 [1-2]
Brett Coulson '20 [3-4]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 6 5 2 2 15 Brandon Kealy '23
Kai Parker '22
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 3 3 6 9 21 Henry Meiser '23
Will Ehrmantraut '23
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 4 8 5 5 22 Michael Hinrichs '22
Preston Fitzgerald '22
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 5 4 7 7 23 Forgot Bailer '15 [1-2]
Mark Room '15 [3-4]
Mountain Lakes '16 [1-2]
Rachel Miller '18 [3-4]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 9 10 4 6 29 Paul Speca '22 [1-2]
Sam Tucker '22 [3-4]
Tyler Hughes '22 [1-2]
Lily Newman '21 [3-4]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 7 6 8 10 31 Ethan Schwartz '20
Henry Haddon '20
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2 8 7 9 8 32 Bill Kennedy '21 [1-2]
Stephen Ruffennach '20 [3-4]
Catherine Valentino '22 [1-2]
Weston Randolph '22 [3-4]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 10 9 10 4 33 Will Morrissey '19
Liam Gallagher '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers1133
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins2244
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles3355
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 14466
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 29911
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers5577
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres6688
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals7799
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates881010
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity101022

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers2244
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins3355
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles4466
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 15577
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 2101022
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers6688
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres7799
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals881010
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates9911
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity1133
School / Team SkipperCrew
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Alex Treff '22 [1-2]
Joaquin Marquez '21 [3-4]
Joaquin Marquez '21 [1-2]
Ryan Wood '22 [3-4]
Cavaliers Michael Hinrichs '22 Preston Fitzgerald '22
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Jon Weed '22 [1-4] Emilie Orendorff '22 [1-2]
Ryan Lipchak '22 [3-4]
Bruins Paul Speca '22 [1-2]
Sam Tucker '22 [3-4]
Tyler Hughes '22 [1-2]
Lily Newman '21 [3-4]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Maeve Drury '19 Olivia Boucher '21
Eagles Will Morrissey '19 Liam Gallagher '20
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Doug Macdonald '19 [1-2]
Aliya Berger '20 [3-4]
Scott Carlsen '20 [1-2]
Grace Slacum '20 [3-4]
Buccaneers 1 Jackson Park '22 [1-2]
Alex Park '20 [3-4]
Noah Wigglesworth '22 [1-2]
Brett Coulson '20 [3-4]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Ellie Yorio '20 [1-2]
Ivy Mayher '20 [3-4]
Peyton Bergeron '22 [1-2]
Meghan Mastroberti '20 [3-4]
Buccaneers 2 Bill Kennedy '21 [1-2]
Stephen Ruffennach '20 [3-4]
Catherine Valentino '22 [1-2]
Weston Randolph '22 [3-4]
Patuxent Patuxent Carolyn Wilson '20 Megan Roberts '20
Panthers Henry Meiser '23 Will Ehrmantraut '23
Severn School Severn School Teddy Cromwell '20 Jack O'Donnell '21
Admirals Zander King '21 Raam Fox '22
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Ole Singelstad '21 Ryleigh Kealy '21
Sabres Brandon Kealy '23 Kai Parker '22
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Accidental Gybe '15 [1-2]
Aidan Young '20 [3-4]
Capsize One '15 [1-2]
Capsize Two '15 [3-4]
Pirates Forgot Bailer '15 [1-2]
Mark Room '15 [3-4]
Mountain Lakes '16 [1-2]
Rachel Miller '18 [3-4]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Amy Hilla '18 Will Delong '18
Varsity Ethan Schwartz '20 Henry Haddon '20

Conditions — 10/13/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1014.1 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.3 kn
avg  ·  max 16.4 kn
Gusts to 25.5 kn
From NW (305°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover85% Sunshine6.6 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1014.1 hPa Rain0.07 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Kent Island: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.31)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.43
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.27 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.31 means a rating gap counts about 27% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kent Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Kent Island, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →