| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | Battlin' Baron | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
Great Mills High School | Hornets | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,914 team race matches sailed before 2019-10-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 15 matches (93%) with a log-loss of 0.245 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.67 ± 0.60: an orderly event, more orderly than 90% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School | 9.02 | 12.02 | 5–0 | 4.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 2 | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 5.81 | 7.87 | 4–1 | 3.2 | +2.06 | 0.8 | 39% |
| 3 | Leonardtown High School | 5.26 | 5.61 | 3–2 | 2.8 | +0.35 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 4 | Great Mills High School | 4.03 | 4.35 | 2–3 | 1.8 | +0.31 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 5 | Archbishop Spalding | 3.08 | 3.08 | 1–4 | 1.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 6 | Broadneck High School | 3.54 | 0.54 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friso Grolleman | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 1.37 | 3.44 | 4–1 | 3.2 | +2.06 | 0.8 | 39% |
| Audrey Commerford | Leonardtown High School | 1.33 | 1.68 | 3–2 | 2.8 | +0.35 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Anna Groszkowski | Archbishop Spalding | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1–4 | 1.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Ava Farley | Archbishop Spalding | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1–4 | 1.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Jon Weed | Broadneck High School | 1.26 | -1.74 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Hornets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Admirals | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Battlin' Baron | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Hornets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Severn School | Admirals | Jordan Bruce '20 Madeline Hawkins '20 Mariner Fagan '20 Owen Hennessey '21 Sam Bruce '20 |
Addi Harris '20 Rees Tindall '21 Ryan Wahba '20 Raam Fox '22 |
|
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | Battlin' Baron | Friso Grolleman '20 Matt Budington '21 Nick Budington '21 |
Anna Grolleman '22 Ryan Tatelbaum '21 Liam Gronda '21 |
|
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | Audrey Commerford '21 Daniel Unangst '20 Tyler Egeli '20 |
Makenna Labor '21 Steven Twemlow '20 Julia Marino '20 |
|
Great Mills High School | Hornets | Lochlann Ludwig '21 Lucy Paskoff '20 Olivia Sowa '20 |
Clare Greenwell '22 Jonathan Stevenson '23 Braedon Myers '20 |
|
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | Anna Groszkowski '22 Ava Farley '22 Griffin Richardson '21 |
Ty Ryan '22 Joaquin Marquez '21 Claire Woynerowski '22 |
|
Broadneck High School | Bruins | Jon Weed '22 Josh Becker '20 Morgan Carew '21 |
Lily Newman '21 Emilie Orendorff '22 Will Harding '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
