MDISA Kent Island JV Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 13 5 18
2 North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 8 13 21
3 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 22 18 40
4 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 11 38 49
5 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 28 28 56
6 Gunston Gunston Herons 32 31 63
7 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 33 30 63
8 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 37 37 74
9 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 42 45 87
10 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 49 40 89
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 3 1 1 1 2 8 Ian Ronald '21
Lauren O'Neill '20
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 2 3 3 2 1 11 Conrad Schoefield '23
Eric Johnson '23
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 2 2 3 5 13 Teddy Cromwell '20
Jack O'Donnell '21
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 4 4 4 4 6 22 Corbin Voorhes '21 [1-2]
Jackson Park '22 [3-4]
Ellie Yorio '20 [5]
Mary Macdonald '20 [1-2]
Noah Wigglesworth '22 [3-4]
Scott Carlsen '20 [5]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 8 6 6 5 3 28 Zach Lighthammer '22 [1-2, 5]
Wynn Williams '22 [3-4]
Sarah Henderson '20 [1-2, 5]
Wyatt Grimm '22 [3-4]
Gunston Gunston Herons 5 7 7 9 4 32 Helen Boone '21 [1-5]
Emerson Borghardt '21 [1-2]
Hannah Worth '21 [3-5]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 9 5 5 7 7 33 Andrew Norris '20
Conner Anderson '21
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 6 9 8 6 8 37 Douglas Patrick '20 [1-4]
Piper Shrout '22 [5]
Janie Powell '21 [1-4]
Ben Howard '22 [5]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 7 8 10 8 9 42 Derick Fahnestock '22
William Western '23
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 10 10 9 10 10 49 Alexandra Mullery '22
Kaitlyn Brouillette '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 1 5 Patrick Dolan '21 [1-5]
Hayden Lamb '20 [1-4]
Chase O'Malley '22 [5]
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 2 2 4 2 3 13 Morgan Essex '19
Jamie Cottage '23
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 3 3 3 4 5 18 Doug Macdonald '19 [1-2]
Elan Fisher '19 [3-5]
Riley Van Liew '20 [1-2]
Katie Norman '19 [3-5]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 7 4 2 9 6 28 James "Jack" Johnson '22 [1-2]
Victoria Schweigert-Opas '23 [3-5]
Noah Sapiro '22 [1-2]
Bryce Williams '24 [3-5]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 8 7 6 5 4 30 Sterling Maggard '23
Jonah Timmons '21
Gunston Gunston Herons 4 8 DNF 6 2 31 Will Newberg '20 [1-5]
Charles Shifrin '21 [1-2]
Davy Song '19 [3-5]
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 9 6 DNF 3 8 37 Ben Chitterling '21
No Show
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 6 5 DNF 7 9 38 Carmen Fowler '22 [1-2]
Max Lawall '19 [3-5]
Brady Briggs '22 [1-2]
Max Mollinoff '23 [3-5]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 10 10 5 8 7 40 Timothy Dixon '20 [1-2]
Alex Howard '22 [3-5]
Caeden Wirth '22 [1-2]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 5 9 DNF 10 10 45 Grace Wilson '23
Caroline Mederos '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron11335
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers33557
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders44668
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors55779
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers668810
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals77991
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons8810102
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights99113
GunstonGunston Herons22446
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity1010224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron22444
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers44666
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders55777
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors66888
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers77999
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals88101010
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons99111
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights1010222
GunstonGunston Herons33555
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity11333
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Conrad Schoefield '23 Eric Johnson '23
Battlin' Baron Carmen Fowler '22 [1-2]
Max Lawall '19 [3-5]
Brady Briggs '22 [1-2]
Max Mollinoff '23 [3-5]
Gunston Gunston Helen Boone '21 [1-5] Emerson Borghardt '21 [1-2]
Hannah Worth '21 [3-5]
Herons Will Newberg '20 [1-5] Charles Shifrin '21 [1-2]
Davy Song '19 [3-5]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Corbin Voorhes '21 [1-2]
Jackson Park '22 [3-4]
Ellie Yorio '20 [5]
Mary Macdonald '20 [1-2]
Noah Wigglesworth '22 [3-4]
Scott Carlsen '20 [5]
Buccaneers Doug Macdonald '19 [1-2]
Elan Fisher '19 [3-5]
Riley Van Liew '20 [1-2]
Katie Norman '19 [3-5]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Andrew Norris '20 Conner Anderson '21
Raiders Sterling Maggard '23 Jonah Timmons '21
North East River High School North East River High School Ian Ronald '21 Lauren O'Neill '20
Road Warriors Morgan Essex '19 Jamie Cottage '23
Patuxent Patuxent Derick Fahnestock '22 William Western '23
Panthers Grace Wilson '23 Caroline Mederos '24
Severn School Severn School Teddy Cromwell '20 Jack O'Donnell '21
Admirals Patrick Dolan '21 [1-5] Hayden Lamb '20 [1-4]
Chase O'Malley '22 [5]
Severna Park Severna Park Douglas Patrick '20 [1-4]
Piper Shrout '22 [5]
Janie Powell '21 [1-4]
Ben Howard '22 [5]
Falcons Ben Chitterling '21 No Show
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Alexandra Mullery '22 Kaitlyn Brouillette '20
Knights Timothy Dixon '20 [1-2]
Alex Howard '22 [3-5]
Caeden Wirth '22 [1-2]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Zach Lighthammer '22 [1-2, 5]
Wynn Williams '22 [3-4]
Sarah Henderson '20 [1-2, 5]
Wyatt Grimm '22 [3-4]
Varsity James "Jack" Johnson '22 [1-2]
Victoria Schweigert-Opas '23 [3-5]
Noah Sapiro '22 [1-2]
Bryce Williams '24 [3-5]

Conditions — 04/06/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 87%  ·  Pressure 1023.3 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 15.2 kn
From NNE (18°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1023.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Kent Island: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.17 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kent Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Kent Island, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →