Kent Island JV

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 19 5 24
2 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1 18 18 36
3 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 21 24 45
4 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 32 18 50
5 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 28 29 57
6 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 30 32 62
7 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 21 43 64
8 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2 15 50 65
9 Key School Key School Zags 45 30 75
10 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 46 38 84
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2 4 1 8 1 1 15 Tiller Extension '15
Accidental Gybe '15
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1 6 5 2 3 2 18 Accidental Gybe '15
Capsize One '15
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 1 3 4 5 6 19 Morgan Essex '19
Ellie Sekowski '19
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 3 2 7 6 3 21 Caleb Robinson '19
Alexandria Stefancik '21
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 5 9 1 2 4 21 Chase Conway '22 [1-5]
Molly Jones- Lantzy '21 [1-2]
Stella Reshetiloff '21 [3-5]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 9 7 3 4 5 28 Doug Macdonald '19 [1-2]
Crispin Blamphin '18 [3-4]
Corbin Voorhes '21 [5]
Riley Van Liew '20 [1-2]
Claire Goldsborough '18 [3-4]
Erik Seiler '20 [5]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 2 8 6 7 7 30 Matthew Collinson '20
Tony Evans '20
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 7 4 5 8 8 32 Emily Williams '20
Jessie Monk '18
Key School Key School Zags 10 6 10 9 10 45 Hannah Nairn '21
Marissa Loftus '22
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 8 10 9 10 9 46 Caitlin Rosner '21 [1-2]
Andrew White '21 [3-4]
John Heisch '21 [5]
Andrew White '21 [1-2]
Caitlin Rosner '21 [3-5]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 1 1 1 1 1 5 Chris Trentham '18
Will Hearn '18
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 2 7 3 4 2 18 Erika Wise '19 [1-5]
Makenna Labor '21 [1-2]
Tehya Gaines '21 [3-5]
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1 6 2 2 5 3 18 Capsize Two '15
Forgot Bailer '15
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 3 4 4 6 7 24 Eddie Langemak '19 [1-2]
Andrew Tollefson '22 [3-5]
Juliette Troxell '21 [1-2]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 8 5 5 7 4 29 Aliya Berger '20 [1-2]
Bill Kennedy '21 [3-5]
Mary Macdonald '20 [1-2]
Brett Coulson '20 [3-5]
Key School Key School Zags 4 10 7 3 6 30 Ella May Corckran '22 [1-5]
Luke Wilbricht '20 [1-2]
Cj Campbell '22 [3-5]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 5 6 DSQ 2 8 32 Ole Singelstad '21
Alexander Harkowa '21
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 10 9 6 8 5 38 Lily Newman '21
Katie White '20
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 7 3 DSQ DSQ DSQ 43 Selah Tatem '18
Douglas Patrick '20
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2 9 8 DNS DNS DNS 50 Mountain Lakes '16
Capsize One '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins44668
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers11335
Key SchoolKey School Zags33557
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders77991
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors22446
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres99113
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons8810102
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints55779
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 1668810
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 21010224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins55777
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers22444
Key SchoolKey School Zags44666
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders88101010
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors33555
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres1010222
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons99111
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints66888
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 177999
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 211333
School / Team SkipperCrew
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Caitlin Rosner '21 [1-2]
Andrew White '21 [3-4]
John Heisch '21 [5]
Andrew White '21 [1-2]
Caitlin Rosner '21 [3-5]
Bruins Lily Newman '21 Katie White '20
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Doug Macdonald '19 [1-2]
Crispin Blamphin '18 [3-4]
Corbin Voorhes '21 [5]
Riley Van Liew '20 [1-2]
Claire Goldsborough '18 [3-4]
Erik Seiler '20 [5]
Buccaneers Aliya Berger '20 [1-2]
Bill Kennedy '21 [3-5]
Mary Macdonald '20 [1-2]
Brett Coulson '20 [3-5]
Key School Key School Hannah Nairn '21 Marissa Loftus '22
Zags Ella May Corckran '22 [1-5] Luke Wilbricht '20 [1-2]
Cj Campbell '22 [3-5]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Emily Williams '20 Jessie Monk '18
Raiders Erika Wise '19 [1-5] Makenna Labor '21 [1-2]
Tehya Gaines '21 [3-5]
North East River High School North East River High School Morgan Essex '19 Ellie Sekowski '19
Road Warriors Chris Trentham '18 Will Hearn '18
Severna Park Severna Park Caleb Robinson '19 Alexandria Stefancik '21
Falcons Selah Tatem '18 Douglas Patrick '20
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Chase Conway '22 [1-5] Molly Jones- Lantzy '21 [1-2]
Stella Reshetiloff '21 [3-5]
Saints Eddie Langemak '19 [1-2]
Andrew Tollefson '22 [3-5]
Juliette Troxell '21 [1-2]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Matthew Collinson '20 Tony Evans '20
Sabres Ole Singelstad '21 Alexander Harkowa '21
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Accidental Gybe '15 Capsize One '15
Pirates 1 Capsize Two '15 Forgot Bailer '15
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Tiller Extension '15 Accidental Gybe '15
Pirates 2 Mountain Lakes '16 Capsize One '15

Conditions — 10/14/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1023.4 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.6 kn
avg  ·  max 11.1 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From N (10°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover79% Sunshine4.6 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1023.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Kent Island: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.34)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.24
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.46 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.34 means a rating gap counts about 29% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kent Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Kent Island, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →