| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals 1 | 8–0 |
| 2 | |
Severn School | Admirals 2 | 5–3 |
| 3 |  |
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | Battlin' Baron | 4–4 |
| 4 | |
Severn School | Admirals 3 | 3–5 |
| 5 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,971 team race matches sailed before 2020-03-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 12 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.463 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.11 ± 0.61: a typical event, more orderly than 33% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School Admirals 1 | 1 | 9.16 school +0.07 | Maddie Hawkins / Jack O'Donnell 3.17 Sam Bruce / Chase Hilliard 2.70 Mariner Fagan / Ryan Wahba 3.19 | 84% | 6–0 (100%) | +1.0 |
| 2 | Severn School Admirals 2 | 2 | 7.84 school +0.07 | Zander King / Rees Tindall 2.36 Thomas Sitzmann / Raam Fox Robby Meek / Chase O'Malley | 59% | 3–3 (50%) | −0.5 |
| 3 | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron | 4 | 5.71 school +0.19 | Nick Budington / Liam Gronda 2.27 Matt Budington / Anna Grolleman 2.08 Friso Grolleman / Albin Liungman 1.12 | 16% | 2–4 (33%) | +1.0 |
| 4 | Severn School Admirals 3 | 3 | 6.96 school +0.07 | Teddy Cromwell / Alex Brenia 2.49 Kyle Reinecke / Anna Howell Jordan Bruce / Lily Baker 2.48 | 40% | 1–5 (17%) | −1.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School Admirals 1 | 9.16 | 12.16 | 6–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 35% |
| 3 | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron | 5.71 | 7.00 | 2–4 | 1.0 | +1.29 | 0.8 | 26% |
| 2 | Severn School Admirals 2 | 7.84 | 7.24 | 3–3 | 3.5 | −0.60 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 4 | Severn School Admirals 3 | 6.96 | 4.98 | 1–5 | 2.4 | −1.98 | 1.5 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friso Grolleman | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 1.12 | 2.41 | 2–4 | 1.0 | +1.29 | 0.8 | 26% |
| Teddy Cromwell | Severn School | 2.49 | 0.51 | 1–5 | 2.4 | −1.98 | 1.5 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Severn School Admirals 1 | Severn School Admirals 3 | 86% | |
| 1 | 5 | Severn School Admirals 1 | Severn School Admirals 2 | 75% | |
| 1 | 8 | Severn School Admirals 3 | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron | 73% | |
| 1 | 10 | Severn School Admirals 2 | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron | 84% | |
| 1 | 13 | Severn School Admirals 1 | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron | 94% | |
| 1 | 14 | Severn School Admirals 2 | Severn School Admirals 3 | 66% | |
| 2 | 16 | Severn School Admirals 2 | Severn School Admirals 3 | 66% | |
| 2 | 17 | Severn School Admirals 1 | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron | 94% | |
| 2 | 18 | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron | Severn School Admirals 2 | 16% | upset |
| 2 | 19 | Severn School Admirals 1 | Severn School Admirals 3 | 84% | |
| 2 | 20 | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron | Severn School Admirals 3 | 26% | upset |
| 2 | 21 | Severn School Admirals 1 | Severn School Admirals 2 | 73% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Admirals 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Admirals 3 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Admirals 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Admirals 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Battlin' Baron | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Admirals 3 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Admirals 3 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 2-3-6 |
| 14 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Admirals 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Admirals 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Admirals 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Admirals 3 | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Admirals 3 | 2-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Admirals 2 | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Severn School | Admirals 1 | Madeline Hawkins '20 Mariner Fagan '20 Sam Bruce '20 |
Jack O'Donnell '21 Ryan Wahba '20 Chase Hilliard '21 |
|
Severn School | Admirals 2 | Robby Meek '23 Thomas Sitzmann '23 Zander King '21 |
Chase O'Malley '22 Raam Fox '22 Rees Tindall '21 |
|
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | Battlin' Baron | Friso Grolleman '20 Matt Budington '21 Nick Budington '21 |
Albin Liungman '23 Anna Grolleman '22 Liam Gronda '21 |
|
Severn School | Admirals 3 | Jordan Bruce '20 Kyle Reinecke '23 Teddy Cromwell '20 |
Lily Baker '23 Anna Howell '22 Alex Brenia '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
