MASSA 2019 Girls Championship

HostCBA, TRYC & OCC
Date05/04/2019
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatC420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Southern Regional High School	Rams	76	76
2	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	80	80
3	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	82	82
4	Ranney School	Panthers	85	85
5	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	129	129
6	Great Mills High School	Hornets	134	134
7	The Stony Brook School	Bears 1	147	147
8	Toms River South	Indians	164	164
9	Broadneck High School	Bruins	186	186
10	Leonardtown High School	Raiders	198	198
11	South River High School	Seahawks	214	214
12	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	216	216
13	St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	219	219
14	The Stony Brook School	Bears 2	234	234
15	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	252	252
16	Chatham High School	Cougars	301	301

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	R17	R18	R19	R20	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams	2	2	2	6	2	8	6	3	2	1	1	5	2	13	6	8	2	2	1	2	76	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-6, 13-14, 17-20] Bridget Green '21 [7-12, 15-16] Bridget Green '21 [1-6, 13-14, 17-20] Brielle Willoughby '20 [7-12, 15-16]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	3	1	3	3	1	2	2	1	1	5	8	2	10	1	4	2	8	3	3	DSQ	80	Colleen O'Brien '20 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	1	DSQ	1	1	11	5	1	2	3	2	3	1	4	2	3	1	4	7	8	5	82	Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Ranney School	Panthers	5	3	5	5	6	6	3	8	4	7	5	11	1	6	1	BKD	1	1	2	1	85	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-20] Alexa Whitman '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14, 17-18] Alexandria Forrest '22 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12, 15-16, 19-20]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	16	15	13	2	10	10	4	7	5	4	2	3	3	8	2	5	6	4	4	6	129	Sydney Gusmer '22 [1-3] Lauren Ehnot '20 [4-20] Hope Maguire '19 [1-2, 4-7, 15-16, 19-20] Alex Chrystal '20 [3, 8-10] Sydney Gusmer '22 [11-14, 17-18]
Great Mills High School	Hornets	9	8	6	7	3	1	5	9	6	8	7	4	15	4	5	14	5	5	5	8	134	Olivia Sowa '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14, 17-18] Lucy Paskoff '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12, 15-16, 19-20] Lucy Paskoff '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14, 17-18] Olivia Sowa '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12, 15-16, 19-20]
The Stony Brook School	Bears 1	11	5	4	4	9	4	9	4	10	6	15	9	9	5	10	12	3	8	7	3	147	Lilly Jette '21 [1-20] Isabella Seminario '22 [1-12] Ella Simmons '20 [13-20]
Toms River South	Indians	12	4	11	11	7	7	7	12	9	10	13	12	7	3	7	6	7	9	6	4	164	Leo Krajewski '19 Sonja Krajewski '22
Broadneck High School	Bruins	13	12	7	13	5	13	14	6	8	3	11	7	5	9	9	9	13	12	10	7	186	Morgan Carew '21 Lily Newman '21
Leonardtown High School	Raiders	6	6	14	9	8	3	10	13	12	9	4	6	14	15	8	7	10	16	14	14	198	Audrey Commerford '21 Makenna Labor '21
South River High School	Seahawks	14	10	8	12	13	9	11	5	7	11	10	8	12	12	13	10	15	13	11	10	214	Bryce Ricewoolf '20 Rachel O'Neil '20
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	7	9	10	8	4	15	8	11	14	12	12	10	13	11	12	13	14	11	13	9	216	Anna Groszkowski '22 Ava Farley '22
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	10	7	9	14	15	11	13	10	13	14	DNS	DNS	6	7	14	4	11	6	9	12	219	Mercedes Escandon '20 [1-20] Emerson Furgason '20 [1-10] Emma Coakley '20 [11-20]
The Stony Brook School	Bears 2	4	13	12	15	14	12	15	15	15	15	9	15	8	10	11	3	9	10	12	DNF	234	Alyssa Jette '19 [1-20] Imogene Dunn '21 [1-6, 11-12] Margaret Hunt '19 [7-10, 13-20]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	8	11	16	16	12	14	12	16	11	13	6	14	11	14	15	11	12	14	15	11	252	Sophie Lusty '20 [1-12] Hannah Mercurio '20 [13-20] Lilly Shanker '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Sarah Kane '22 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12] Katie Penque '22 [13-20]
Chatham High School	Cougars	15	14	15	10	16	16	16	14	16	16	14	13	16	16	DNF	DNF	16	15	16	13	301	Paige Lubrano '22 [1-2, 7-8, 11-14, 17-20] Ciara Doherty '21 [3-6, 9-10, 15-16] Zoe Papier '19 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12] Amanda Williams '21 [3-6, 9-10, 13-14, 17-18] Oona Boyle '22 [15-16] Ciara Doherty '21 [19-20]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A	15A	16A	17A	18A	19A	20A
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Broadneck High School Bruins	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11
Chatham High School Cougars	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Great Mills High School Hornets	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13
Leonardtown High School Raiders	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
Ranney School Panthers	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1
South River High School Seahawks	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Summit High School Hilltoppers	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5
The Stony Brook School Bears 1	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
The Stony Brook School Bears 2	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Toms River South Indians	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Trinity Hall Monarchs	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	Anna Groszkowski '22	Ava Farley '22
Broadneck High School	Bruins	Morgan Carew '21	Lily Newman '21
Chatham High School	Cougars	Paige Lubrano '22 [1-2, 7-8, 11-14, 17-20] Ciara Doherty '21 [3-6, 9-10, 15-16]	Zoe Papier '19 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12] Amanda Williams '21 [3-6, 9-10, 13-14, 17-18] Oona Boyle '22 [15-16] Ciara Doherty '21 [19-20]
Great Mills High School	Hornets	Olivia Sowa '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14, 17-18] Lucy Paskoff '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12, 15-16, 19-20]	Lucy Paskoff '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14, 17-18] Olivia Sowa '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12, 15-16, 19-20]
Leonardtown High School	Raiders	Audrey Commerford '21	Makenna Labor '21
Ranney School	Panthers	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-20]	Alexa Whitman '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14, 17-18] Alexandria Forrest '22 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12, 15-16, 19-20]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	Colleen O'Brien '20	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	Michaela O'Brien '20	Amelia Buch '20
South River High School	Seahawks	Bryce Ricewoolf '20	Rachel O'Neil '20
Southern Regional High School	Rams	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-6, 13-14, 17-20] Bridget Green '21 [7-12, 15-16]	Bridget Green '21 [1-6, 13-14, 17-20] Brielle Willoughby '20 [7-12, 15-16]
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	Mercedes Escandon '20 [1-20]	Emerson Furgason '20 [1-10] Emma Coakley '20 [11-20]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	Sophie Lusty '20 [1-12] Hannah Mercurio '20 [13-20]	Lilly Shanker '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Sarah Kane '22 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12] Katie Penque '22 [13-20]
The Stony Brook School	Bears 1	Lilly Jette '21 [1-20]	Isabella Seminario '22 [1-12] Ella Simmons '20 [13-20]
The Stony Brook School	Bears 2	Alyssa Jette '19 [1-20]	Imogene Dunn '21 [1-6, 11-12] Margaret Hunt '19 [7-10, 13-20]
Toms River South	Indians	Leo Krajewski '19	Sonja Krajewski '22
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	Sydney Gusmer '22 [1-3] Lauren Ehnot '20 [4-20]	Hope Maguire '19 [1-2, 4-7, 15-16, 19-20] Alex Chrystal '20 [3, 8-10] Sydney Gusmer '22 [11-14, 17-18]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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MASSA 2019 Girls Championship

Division A

From the notes