| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals 1 | 12–0 |
| 2 | |
Severn School | Admirals 2 | 9–3 |
| 3 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 6–6 |
| 4 |  |
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | 6–6 |
| 5 |  |
Great Mills High School | Hornets | 3–9 |
| 6 |  |
Severna Park | Falcons | 0–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,870 team race matches sailed before 2021-10-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 36 of 36 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.150 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.59 ± 0.38: an orderly event, more orderly than 85% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School Admirals 1 | 9.11 | 12.11 | 12–0 | 11.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 72% |
| 2 | Severn School Admirals 2 | 5.27 | 7.10 | 9–3 | 7.5 | +1.83 | 1.5 | 18% |
| 4 | Leonardtown High School Raiders | 2.84 | 3.59 | 6–6 | 5.1 | +0.75 | 0.4 | 37% |
| 3 | Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers | 4.98 | 4.41 | 6–6 | 6.6 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 5 | Great Mills High School Hornets | 2.43 | 1.16 | 3–9 | 4.4 | −1.28 | 1.0 | 95% |
| 6 | Severna Park Falcons | -0.07 | -3.07 | 0–12 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Mccollum | Severn School | 1.36 | 3.19 | 9–3 | 7.5 | +1.83 | 1.5 | 18% |
| Michael Hinrichs | Archbishop Spalding | 0.95 | 0.44 | 4–3 | 4.5 | −0.51 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Anna Groszkowski | Archbishop Spalding | 1.39 | 0.83 | 6–6 | 6.6 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Ava Farley | Archbishop Spalding | 1.68 | 0.58 | 2–3 | 2.1 | −1.10 | 0.1 | 98% |
| Jonathan Stevenson | Great Mills High School | 0.95 | -0.32 | 3–9 | 4.4 | −1.28 | 1.0 | 95% |
| Johnny Riganati | Severna Park | -0.29 | -3.29 | 0–12 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Ben Howard | Severna Park | -0.11 | -3.11 | 0–12 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Hornets | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Admirals 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Hornets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Admirals 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Admirals 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-6 |
| 34 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Hornets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Severn School | Admirals 1 | Kyle Reinecke '23 Robby Meek '23 Thomas Sitzmann '23 |
Helena English '24 Lilly Baker '23 Scarlett Harris '24 |
|
Severn School | Admirals 2 | Chris Mccollum '24 Raam Fox '22 Sam De Los Reyes '26 |
Kate Castleberry '24 Lila Gibson '22 Alex Brenia '22 |
|
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | Anna Groszkowski '22 Ava Farley '22 Hugh Carty '23 Michael Hinrichs '22 |
Preston Fitzgerald '22 Christina Pierce '25 Claire Woynerowski '22 Kaitlyn Zimmerman '24 |
|
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | Douglass Abbott '23 Joseph Murphy '24 Sterling Maggard '23 |
Will Grah '25 Marc Hauenstein '23 Steven Lumpkins '23 |
|
Great Mills High School | Hornets | Claire Sullivan '25 Eli Leopold '24 Jonathan Stevenson '23 |
Eliza Szymendera '25 Clare Greenwell '23 Ellis Thompson '23 Gracie Muir '23 |
|
Severna Park | Falcons | Ben Howard '22 Johnny Riganati '23 Peter Judge '25 |
Gavin Morris '25 Madison Cannon '25 Ryan Burgett '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
