| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 14–3 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 13–4 |
| 3 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 8–8 |
| 4 |  |
Key School | Zags | 4–12 |
| 5 |  |
Fairport High School | Red Raiders | 2–14 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,239 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 41 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.442 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.36 ± 0.37: a typical event, more orderly than 67% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Stony Brook School Bears | 2 | 5.06 school −0.29 | Lilly Jette / Harry Fredericks 1.27 Steven Hardee / Mairead Reitzel 2.21 Gavin Hudson / Imogene Dunn 1.80 | 68% | 14–3 (82%) | +2.4 |
| 2 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 1 | 5.24 school +0.10 | Jennifer Permenter / Emily Britt 1.65 Audrey Permenter / Henry Campbell Sean Trudell / Sabrina Casagrande 1.79 | 71% | 13–4 (76%) | +0.9 |
| 3 | Broadneck High School Bruins | 3 | 4.22 school +0.36 | Jonjon Weed / Will Harding Morgan Carew / Emilie Orendorff 1.42 Tyler Hughes / Lily Newman 0.99 | 52% | 8–8 (50%) | −0.3 |
| 4 | Key School Zags | 4 | 3.71 school −0.11 | Charles Anderson / Stella Kim 2.33 Molly Roden / Marissa Loftus Andrew Baker / James Rizek 0.35 | 41% | 4–12 (25%) | −2.6 |
| 5 | Fairport High School Red Raiders | 5 | 2.21 | Adam Strobridge / Matt Lago Benjamin Hosford / Emily Grevell Cameron Bernabei / Megan Thurley | 15% | 2–14 (12%) | −0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Stony Brook School | 5.06 | 6.18 | 14–3 | 11.5 | +1.12 | 1.5 | 14% |
| 2 | Norfolk Academy | 5.24 | 5.61 | 13–4 | 12.1 | +0.37 | 0.2 | 43% |
| 3 | Broadneck High School | 4.22 | 4.11 | 8–8 | 8.3 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 5 | Fairport High School | 2.21 | 1.94 | 2–14 | 2.4 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 4 | Key School | 3.71 | 2.52 | 4–12 | 6.6 | −1.19 | 1.7 | 97% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilly Jette | The Stony Brook School | 1.27 | 2.39 | 14–3 | 11.5 | +1.12 | 1.5 | 14% |
| Audrey Permenter | Norfolk Academy | 1.60 | 1.97 | 13–4 | 12.1 | +0.37 | 0.2 | 43% |
| Jonjon Weed | Broadneck High School | 1.35 | 1.24 | 8–8 | 8.3 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Adam Strobridge | Fairport High School | 1.12 | 0.85 | 2–14 | 2.4 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 72% |
| Benjamin Hosford | Fairport High School | 0.71 | 0.44 | 2–14 | 2.4 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 72% |
| Cameron Bernabei | Fairport High School | 0.07 | -0.21 | 2–14 | 2.4 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 72% |
| Charles Anderson | Key School | 2.33 | 1.14 | 4–12 | 6.6 | −1.19 | 1.7 | 97% |
| Andrew Baker | Key School | 0.35 | -0.84 | 4–12 | 6.6 | −1.19 | 1.7 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Red Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Zags | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Red Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Red Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Red Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Zags | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Red Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Red Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Zags | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Red Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Red Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Bruins | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Zags | 2-3-6 |
| 28 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Bruins | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Red Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 30 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Bears | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-3-6 |
| 34 | |
Red Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 35 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Red Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
The Stony Brook School | Bears | Gavin Hudson '24 Lilly Jette '21 Steven Hardee '22 |
Imogene Dunn '21 Harry Fredericks '22 Mairead Reitzel '24 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | Audrey Permenter '23 Jennifer Permenter '21 Sean Trudell '24 |
Henry Campbell '21 Emily Britt '23 Sabrina Casagrande '25 |
|
Broadneck High School | Bruins | Jonjon Weed '22 Morgan Carew '21 Tyler Hughes '22 |
Will Harding '22 Emilie Orendorff '22 Lily Newman '21 |
|
Key School | Zags | Andrew Baker '24 Charles Anderson '21 Molly Roden '22 |
James Rizek '22 Stella Kim '23 Marissa Loftus '22 |
|
Fairport High School | Red Raiders | Adam Strobridge '22 Benjamin Hosford '21 Cameron Bernabei '21 |
Matt Lago '23 Emily Grevell '23 Megan Thurley '21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
