NYISA-SE Icebreaker Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 4 12 12
2 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 2 13 13
3 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 1 29 29
4 Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 3 34 MRP 34 MRP
5 Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 1 43 43
6 Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 4 49 MRP 49 MRP
7 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 5 51 51
8 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 3 51 51
9 New Rochelle High School New Rochelle High School New Rochelle 54 MRP 54 MRP
10 Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 2 74 MRP 74 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 4 3 1 3 1 3 1 12 Gavin Hudson '24
Isabella Seminario '22
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 2 1 2 4 2 2 2 13 Steven Hardee '22
Sean Beaver '23
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 1 6 6 2 6 5 4 29 Jeremy Lunati '23
Sebastian Hell '23
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 3 2 3 1 4 1 3 34 MRP Callie Hammond '24
Lanie Ferrarone '24
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 1 9 5 6 8 6 9 43 Max Shapiro '23
Jonathan Wittick '25
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 4 5 7 5 3 4 5 49 MRP Owen Bischoff '25
Taylor Ferrarone '23
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 5 7 10 10 10 7 7 51 Mairead Reitzel '24
Amy Li '23
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 3 8 8 8 7 10 10 51 Robert Sun '23
Sam Huang '22
New Rochelle High School New Rochelle High School New Rochelle 4 4 7 5 8 6 54 MRP No Show
No Show
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 2 10 9 9 9 9 8 74 MRP Michelle Kaneti '25
Max Lazarus '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2022 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers 1111111
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers 2222222
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers 3333333
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers 4444444
New Rochelle High SchoolNew Rochelle High School New Rochelle555555
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears 1666666
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears 2777777
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears 3888888
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears 4999999
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears 5101010101010

Conditions — 03/26/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 997.2 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 22.9 kn
From WSW (244°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover86% Sunshine7.8 hrs Humidity64% Pressure997.2 hPa Rain0.12 in Snow0.19 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at The Stony Brook: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.27 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at The Stony Brook by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at The Stony Brook, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →