VISA York County Fleet Race Regatta

HostGrafton/York
Date09/30/2017
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	17	45	62
2	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	43	34	77
3	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	69	26	95
4	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	23	72	95
5	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	64	46	110
6	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators 1	51	61	112
7	York High School	Varsity 1	72	49	121
8	Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	44	78	122
9	Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	94	34	128
10	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 1	68	64	132
11	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 3	78	80	158
12	Christchurch School	Seahorses 3	102	96	198
13	Phoebus High School	Phantoms	68	130	198
14	Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	63	140	203
15	York High School	Varsity 2	102	102	204
16	Maury High School	Commodores 2	119	87	206
17	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 2	132	81	213
18	Maury High School	Commodores 1	130	88	218
19	Grafton High School	Varsity	106	137	243
20	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators 2	131	124	255
21	Hampton High School	Crabbers	151	115	266
22	Catholic High School	Crusaders 1	156	142	298
23	Walsingham Academy	Trojans	160	140	300
24	Peninsula Catholic High School	Knights	134	173	307
25	Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	147	162	309
26	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators 3	163	150	313
27	Catholic High School	Crusaders 2	164	170	334

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	3	1	1	2	6	2	2	17	Ellie Maus '18 Matt Wright '19
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	4	2	3	6	1	1	6	23	Parker Purrington '19 Ray Domena '19
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	5	5	8	4	4	9	8	43	Harrison Parker '18 Maddy Reynolds '21
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	1	10	19	3	5	3	3	44	John Vail '20 Jeff Elkin '20
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators 1	12	12	7	9	3	7	1	51	Henry Eley '18 Alex Kitay '19
Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	7	6	14	20	7	5	4	63	Jack Mckenna '20 Eli Teague '19
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	14	9	11	1	2	10	17	64	Jennifer Permenter '21 Hans Christoffersen '18
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 1	8	20	5	13	11	4	7	68	Cole Handly '19 Grace Joyner '19
Phoebus High School	Phantoms	18	11	4	14	10	6	5	68	Blake Harrington '18 Mirra Tobey '20
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	2	14	10	7	15	11	10	69	Lawson Montgomery '18 [1-7] Mihir Damle '19 [1-6] Claire Cunningham '18 [7]
York High School	Varsity 1	6	3	9	11	9	19	15	72	Zane Morris '18 Ethan White '21
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 3	10	DNF	2	5	12	8	13	78	Chris Robertson '19 Sam Beck '21
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	16	24	6	8	13	18	9	94	Reese Bragg '21 Anna Flynn '20
York High School	Varsity 2	13	4	13	17	8	DSQ	19	102	Brian Fox '19 Lenore Dougherty '20
Christchurch School	Seahorses 3	15	8	15	23	14	13	14	102	Anna Piacentini '19 Kyle Willis '18
Grafton High School	Varsity	22	15	12	10	19	16	12	106	Haydon Gould '19 Madeleine Etheridge '19
Maury High School	Commodores 2	9	18	20	18	16	20	18	119	Tyler Cason '18 Will Moore '20
Maury High School	Commodores 1	11	19	16	24	23	14	23	130	Paul Trudell '22 Emily Palmer '18
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators 2	17	21	18	12	20	21	22	131	Olivia Basco '19 Larry Rogers '19
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 2	23	DNF	17	15	21	12	16	132	Bryce Hoen '18 Charlotte Pirnik '20
Peninsula Catholic High School	Knights	19	13	24	22	17	15	24	134	Britt Cortina '20 [1-2, 5-6] Dan Whelan '20 [3-4, 7] Katie Fremaux '20 [1-2, 5-6] Nina Robertson '18 [3-4, 7]
Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	20	17	21	19	26	23	21	147	David Hanna '21 [1-7] Kalia Haupt '19 [1-2] Ashlyn Wise '21 [3-4] Cordell Johnson '19 [5-7]
Hampton High School	Crabbers	21	23	27	16	22	17	25	151	Nick Winkle '20 Ella Hampton '22
Catholic High School	Crusaders 1	25	22	23	25	25	25	11	156	Charles Schoening '19 [1-4] Jake Kiggans '19 [5-7] Mark Ostrowski '19 [1-4] Charles Schoening '19 [5-7]
Walsingham Academy	Trojans	26	16	22	DNF	18	22	DNF	160	Carson Cooper '18 Ronan Donovan '19
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators 3	27	7	RDG	26	DNF	26	26	163	Abby Hellman '18 Diaana Mohsin '19
Catholic High School	Crusaders 2	24	25	26	21	24	24	20	164	Josh Kiggans '21 [1-7] Tyler Kurtz '20 [1-4] Gustavo Morales '20 [5-7]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	4	1	1	3	2	6	9	26	Michael Hostutler '20 Alek Sas '18
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	3	2	6	5	9	2	7	34	Kyle Pfrang '22 Hunter Sznoluch '19
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	7	4	3	10	4	4	2	34	Tristan Elden '20 Carson Rozell '19
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	1	5	2	13	13	7	4	45	Sarah Smith '18 Jenks Britt '20
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	5	12	4	7	1	14	3	46	Jack Kilduff '18 [1-4] Charlie Britt '21 [5-7] Charlie Britt '21 [1-4] Gabby Foley '19 [5-7]
York High School	Varsity 1	8	3	5	17	3	8	5	49	Daniel Hodges '18 Charlie Gibson '20
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators 1	6	21	10	11	6	1	6	61	Henry Waddill '18 Connor Duggan '19
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 1	9	7	14	8	16	9	1	64	Sam Brady '19 Ryan Nguyen '20
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	12	8	8	6	8	15	15	72	Maggie Campbell '22 Jon Krueger '20
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	13	10	17	20	5	5	8	78	Larkin Rae '18 Brendan Little '18
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 3	20	18	7	1	15	3	16	80	Harrison Thomson '22 [1-7] Chapman Holt '20 [1-2, 5-6] Ray Domena '19 [3-4, 7]
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 2	2	6	11	9	14	21	18	81	Morgan Handly '21 Megan Geith '20
Maury High School	Commodores 2	15	11	9	18	10	13	11	87	Jalen Rogers '19 Sophia Bibbo '20
Maury High School	Commodores 1	10	19	13	4	18	11	RDG	88	Robert Chase '22 Jackson Walsh '20
Christchurch School	Seahorses 3	18	14	12	2	DNF	10	12	96	Lucas Masiello '19 [1-7] Mary Esten Brown '21 [1-2] Trip Brewer '18 [3-7]
York High School	Varsity 2	17	9	15	14	11	17	19	102	Kai Vylet '19 Christopher Raab '20
Hampton High School	Crabbers	14	24	16	23	12	12	14	115	Nick Winkle '20 [1-2] Parker Bunting '18 [3-7] Molly Hanson '22 [1-4] Kaelyn Thackeray '19 [5-7]
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators 2	24	13	18	16	7	24	22	124	Krysta Rutherford '19 Ethan Kutner '18
Phoebus High School	Phantoms	16	16	23	12	17	22	24	130	David Michael Jennings '14 [1-2] Ricky Cordner '19 [3-7] Alexandra Smith '23 [1-2] Mallory Soter '20 [3-7]
Grafton High School	Varsity	19	15	19	24	21	19	20	137	Haydon Gould '19 Jacqueline Lankford '18
Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	11	20	RDG	25	19	20	25	140	Charlotte Patterson '20 [1-2, 5-6] Emmaline Dicarlo '20 [3-4, 7] Emmaline Dicarlo '20 [1-2, 5-6] Charlotte Patterson '20 [3-4] Lauren Messerschmidt '21 [7]
Walsingham Academy	Trojans	23	23	22	21	20	18	13	140	Max Wilcox '18 [1-7] David Pellei '18 [1-2, 5-6] Jamie Papazis '20 [3-4, 7]
Catholic High School	Crusaders 1	21	17	20	26	25	23	10	142	Matt Lassalle '18 [1-4, 7] Maggie Mcdonald '19 [5-6] Maggie Mcdonald '19 [1-4, 7] Matt Lassalle '18 [5-6]
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators 3	27	26	26	15	23	16	17	150	Dax Dimuzio '21 Hanna Mohsin '19
Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	22	25	24	19	22	27	23	162	Chase Brewer '22 [1-7] Lauren Messerschmidt '21 [1-2] Hanna Oates '19 [3-7]
Catholic High School	Crusaders 2	26	22	25	27	24	25	21	170	Zack Bromley '21 Oliver Hudson '20
Peninsula Catholic High School	Knights	25	27	21	22	26	26	26	173	Paula-Ann Robertson '19 [1-2, 7] William Robertson '21 [3-6] Gracie Harris '20 [1-4, 7] Paula-Ann Robertson '19 [5-6]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Catholic High School Crusaders 1	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Catholic High School Crusaders 2	16	16	18	18	111	111	113
Christchurch School Seahorses 1	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Christchurch School Seahorses 2	17	17	110	110	112	112	114
Christchurch School Seahorses 3	18	18	111	111	113	113	115
Grafton High School Varsity	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Hampton High School Crabbers	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2	110	110	112	112	114	114	116
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 3	111	111	113	113	115	115	117
Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2	112	112	114	114	116	116	118
Maury High School Commodores 1	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Maury High School Commodores 2	113	113	115	115	117	117	1
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2	114	114	116	116	118	118	2
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2	115	115	117	117	1	1	3
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3	116	116	118	118	2	2	4
Peninsula Catholic High School Knights	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Phoebus High School Phantoms	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Poquoson High School Islanders 1	13	13	15	15	17	17	110
Poquoson High School Islanders 2	117	117	1	1	3	3	5
Walsingham Academy Trojans	14	14	16	16	18	18	111
York High School Varsity 1	15	15	17	17	110	110	112
York High School Varsity 2	118	118	2	2	4	4	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Catholic High School Crusaders 1	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Catholic High School Crusaders 2	17	17	110	110	112	112	114
Christchurch School Seahorses 1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Christchurch School Seahorses 2	118	118	111	111	113	113	115
Christchurch School Seahorses 3	110	110	112	112	114	114	116
Grafton High School Varsity	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Hampton High School Crabbers	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2	111	111	113	113	115	115	117
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 3	112	112	114	114	116	116	118
Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2	113	113	115	115	117	117	1
Maury High School Commodores 1	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Maury High School Commodores 2	114	114	116	116	118	118	2
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2	115	115	117	117	1	1	3
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2	116	116	118	118	2	2	4
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3	117	117	1	1	3	3	5
Peninsula Catholic High School Knights	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Phoebus High School Phantoms	13	13	15	15	17	17	110
Poquoson High School Islanders 1	14	14	16	16	18	18	111
Poquoson High School Islanders 2	18	18	2	2	4	4	6
Walsingham Academy Trojans	15	15	17	17	110	110	112
York High School Varsity 1	16	16	18	18	111	111	113
York High School Varsity 2	1	1	3	3	5	5	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Catholic High School	Charles Schoening '19 [1-4] Jake Kiggans '19 [5-7]	Mark Ostrowski '19 [1-4] Charles Schoening '19 [5-7]
Crusaders 1	Matt Lassalle '18 [1-4, 7] Maggie Mcdonald '19 [5-6]	Maggie Mcdonald '19 [1-4, 7] Matt Lassalle '18 [5-6]
Catholic High School	Josh Kiggans '21 [1-7]	Tyler Kurtz '20 [1-4] Gustavo Morales '20 [5-7]
Crusaders 2	Zack Bromley '21	Oliver Hudson '20
Christchurch School	John Vail '20	Jeff Elkin '20
Seahorses 1	Larkin Rae '18	Brendan Little '18
Christchurch School	Reese Bragg '21	Anna Flynn '20
Seahorses 2	Tristan Elden '20	Carson Rozell '19
Christchurch School	Anna Piacentini '19	Kyle Willis '18
Seahorses 3	Lucas Masiello '19 [1-7]	Mary Esten Brown '21 [1-2] Trip Brewer '18 [3-7]
Grafton High School	Haydon Gould '19	Madeleine Etheridge '19
Varsity	Haydon Gould '19	Jacqueline Lankford '18
Hampton High School	Nick Winkle '20	Ella Hampton '22
Crabbers	Nick Winkle '20 [1-2] Parker Bunting '18 [3-7]	Molly Hanson '22 [1-4] Kaelyn Thackeray '19 [5-7]
Hampton Roads Academy	Henry Eley '18	Alex Kitay '19
Navigators 1	Henry Waddill '18	Connor Duggan '19
Hampton Roads Academy	Olivia Basco '19	Larry Rogers '19
Navigators 2	Krysta Rutherford '19	Ethan Kutner '18
Hampton Roads Academy	Abby Hellman '18	Diaana Mohsin '19
Navigators 3	Dax Dimuzio '21	Hanna Mohsin '19
Kecoughtan High School	Cole Handly '19	Grace Joyner '19
Warriors 1	Sam Brady '19	Ryan Nguyen '20
Kecoughtan High School	Bryce Hoen '18	Charlotte Pirnik '20
Warriors 2	Morgan Handly '21	Megan Geith '20
Maury High School	Paul Trudell '22	Emily Palmer '18
Commodores 1	Robert Chase '22	Jackson Walsh '20
Maury High School	Tyler Cason '18	Will Moore '20
Commodores 2	Jalen Rogers '19	Sophia Bibbo '20
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Harrison Parker '18	Maddy Reynolds '21
Saints	Kyle Pfrang '22	Hunter Sznoluch '19
Norfolk Academy	Lawson Montgomery '18 [1-7]	Mihir Damle '19 [1-6] Claire Cunningham '18 [7]
Bulldogs 1	Michael Hostutler '20	Alek Sas '18
Norfolk Academy	Jennifer Permenter '21	Hans Christoffersen '18
Bulldogs 2	Jack Kilduff '18 [1-4] Charlie Britt '21 [5-7]	Charlie Britt '21 [1-4] Gabby Foley '19 [5-7]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Ellie Maus '18	Matt Wright '19
Oaks 1	Sarah Smith '18	Jenks Britt '20
Norfolk Collegiate School	Parker Purrington '19	Ray Domena '19
Oaks 2	Maggie Campbell '22	Jon Krueger '20
Norfolk Collegiate School	Chris Robertson '19	Sam Beck '21
Oaks 3	Harrison Thomson '22 [1-7]	Chapman Holt '20 [1-2, 5-6] Ray Domena '19 [3-4, 7]
Peninsula Catholic High School	Britt Cortina '20 [1-2, 5-6] Dan Whelan '20 [3-4, 7]	Katie Fremaux '20 [1-2, 5-6] Nina Robertson '18 [3-4, 7]
Knights	Paula-Ann Robertson '19 [1-2, 7] William Robertson '21 [3-6]	Gracie Harris '20 [1-4, 7] Paula-Ann Robertson '19 [5-6]
Phoebus High School	Blake Harrington '18	Mirra Tobey '20
Phantoms	David Michael Jennings '14 [1-2] Ricky Cordner '19 [3-7]	Alexandra Smith '23 [1-2] Mallory Soter '20 [3-7]
Poquoson High School	Jack Mckenna '20	Eli Teague '19
Islanders 1	Charlotte Patterson '20 [1-2, 5-6] Emmaline Dicarlo '20 [3-4, 7]	Emmaline Dicarlo '20 [1-2, 5-6] Charlotte Patterson '20 [3-4] Lauren Messerschmidt '21 [7]
Poquoson High School	David Hanna '21 [1-7]	Kalia Haupt '19 [1-2] Ashlyn Wise '21 [3-4] Cordell Johnson '19 [5-7]
Islanders 2	Chase Brewer '22 [1-7]	Lauren Messerschmidt '21 [1-2] Hanna Oates '19 [3-7]
Walsingham Academy	Carson Cooper '18	Ronan Donovan '19
Trojans	Max Wilcox '18 [1-7]	David Pellei '18 [1-2, 5-6] Jamie Papazis '20 [3-4, 7]
York High School	Zane Morris '18	Ethan White '21
Varsity 1	Daniel Hodges '18	Charlie Gibson '20
York High School	Brian Fox '19	Lenore Dougherty '20
Varsity 2	Kai Vylet '19	Christopher Raab '20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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VISA York County Fleet Race Regatta

Division A

Division B

From the notes