VISA Maury Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 18 7 25
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 20 14 34
3 York High School York High School Varsity 19 16 35
4 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 18 37 55
5 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 21 34 55
6 Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 32 32 64
7 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 37 28 65
8 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 49 28 77
9 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 24 60 84
10 Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 53 34 87
11 Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 41 47 88
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1 5 6 2 4 18 Harrison Parker '18
Jack Butler '23
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 2 2 5 6 3 18 Blake Harrington '18
Ella Hampton '22
York High School York High School Varsity 4 6 2 5 2 19 Zane Morris '18
Ethan White '21
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 DSQ 1 1 1 5 20 Nathan Smith '20
Reese Bragg '21
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 5 3 8 4 1 21 Paul Trudell '22 [1-5]
Emily Palmer '18 [1-2]
Kate Weaver '18 [3-5]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 3 4 3 8 6 24 Gannon Troutman '21
Carson Rozell '19
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 6 8 7 3 8 32 Avery Mcnight '20
Mallory Soter '20
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 7 9 4 7 10 37 Haydon Gould '19
Jacqueline Lankford '18
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 8 7 10 9 7 41 Britt Cortina '20 [1, 3, 5]
Dan Whelan '20 [2, 4]
Dan Whelan '20 [1, 3, 5]
Britt Cortina '20 [2, 4]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 9 10 11 10 9 49 Tyson Denton '21
Megan Geith '20
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 10 11 9 11 DSQ 53 Logan Deaver '18 [1-4]
Ryan Allman '21 [5]
Ian Lichacz '18 [1-4]
Leland Cobb '18 [5]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 2 2 1 1 1 7 Kyle Pfrang '22
Kaila Pfrang '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 5 3 2 3 14 John Vail '20
Anna Flynn '20
York High School York High School Varsity 3 1 7 3 2 16 Daniel Hodges '18
Charlie Gibson '20
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 5 9 5 4 5 28 Morgan Handly '21
Laura Rhodes '20
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 7 4 6 7 4 28 David Hanna '21
Lenore Dougherty '20
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 6 8 4 8 6 32 Tyler Brown '22
Charlotte Pirnik '20
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 4 3 10 9 8 34 Ryan Allman '21 [1-5]
Erin Allman '21 [1-2]
Leland Cobb '18 [3-4]
Ian Lichacz '18 [5]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 8 6 8 5 7 34 Tyler Cason '18 [1-5]
Will Moore '20 [1-2]
Sophia Bibbo '20 [3-4]
Connor Mccarty '21 [5]
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 10 7 2 6 DNF 37 Bryce Hoen '18
Ryan Nguyen '20
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 9 10 9 10 9 47 Elias Rooker '23
Noah Navarret '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 DSQ DSQ DNS DNS DSQ 60 Gannon Troutman '21
Carson Rozell '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (29 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 111335
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 222446
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons1111111111
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity33557
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers44668
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors55779
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores668810
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints77991
Peninsula Catholic High SchoolPeninsula Catholic High School Knights8810102
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms99113
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity1010224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 122446
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 233557
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons1111111111
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity44668
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers55779
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors668810
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores77991
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints8810102
Peninsula Catholic High SchoolPeninsula Catholic High School Knights99113
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms1010224
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity11335
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Nathan Smith '20 Reese Bragg '21
Seahorses 1 John Vail '20 Anna Flynn '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Gannon Troutman '21 Carson Rozell '19
Seahorses 2 Gannon Troutman '21 Carson Rozell '19
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Logan Deaver '18 [1-4]
Ryan Allman '21 [5]
Ian Lichacz '18 [1-4]
Leland Cobb '18 [5]
Falcons Ryan Allman '21 [1-5] Erin Allman '21 [1-2]
Leland Cobb '18 [3-4]
Ian Lichacz '18 [5]
Grafton High School Grafton High School Haydon Gould '19 Jacqueline Lankford '18
Varsity David Hanna '21 Lenore Dougherty '20
Hampton High School Hampton High School Avery Mcnight '20 Mallory Soter '20
Crabbers Tyler Brown '22 Charlotte Pirnik '20
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Tyson Denton '21 Megan Geith '20
Warriors Morgan Handly '21 Laura Rhodes '20
Maury High School Maury High School Paul Trudell '22 [1-5] Emily Palmer '18 [1-2]
Kate Weaver '18 [3-5]
Commodores Tyler Cason '18 [1-5] Will Moore '20 [1-2]
Sophia Bibbo '20 [3-4]
Connor Mccarty '21 [5]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Harrison Parker '18 Jack Butler '23
Saints Kyle Pfrang '22 Kaila Pfrang '17
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Britt Cortina '20 [1, 3, 5]
Dan Whelan '20 [2, 4]
Dan Whelan '20 [1, 3, 5]
Britt Cortina '20 [2, 4]
Knights Elias Rooker '23 Noah Navarret '18
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Blake Harrington '18 Ella Hampton '22
Phantoms Bryce Hoen '18 Ryan Nguyen '20
York High School York High School Zane Morris '18 Ethan White '21
Varsity Daniel Hodges '18 Charlie Gibson '20

Conditions — 03/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1017.3 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From S (180°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover93% Sunshine4.7 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1017.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.13 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled days at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →