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Visa Fleet Championship Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 46
2 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 96
3 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 105
4 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 113
5 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 165
6 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 192
7 York High School York High School Varsity 1 195
8 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 200
9 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 206
10 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 242
11 Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 265
12 York High School York High School Varsity 2 277
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 B 1 5 3 1 1 5 2 18 Parker Purrington '19
Sarah Smith '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 A 2 3 1 18 2 1 1 28 Ellie Maus '18
Matt Wright '19
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors B 6 10 10 6 4 2 7 45 Sam Brady '19
Laura Rhodes '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 A 3 2 9 5 11 4 13 47 Chris Robertson '19
Sam Beck '21
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints A 10 1 4 3 5 9 16 48 Harrison Parker '18
Leila Pfrang '25
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints B 5 7 2 2 3 17 12 48 Kyle Pfrang '22
Hunter Sznoluch '19
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors A 16 14 5 4 6 12 3 60 Cole Handly '19
Megan Geith '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 B 9 6 11 17 7 10 6 66 Harrison Thomson '22
Jon Krueger '20
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders A 4 12 20 7 13 3 9 68 Jack Mckenna '20
Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms A 8 4 12 15 16 11 4 70 Henry Waddill '18 [1-7]
Morgan Handly '21 [1-5]
Tori Dixon '20 [6-7]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 A 11 11 7 13 9 14 11 76 Paul Trudell '22
Emily Palmer '18
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 B 17 9 6 8 19 22 8 89 Jalen Rogers '19
Sophia Bibbo '20
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 B 15 8 15 9 14 19 14 94 Robert Chase '22
Kate Weaver '18
York High School York High School Varsity 1 B 20 15 16 10 10 7 17 95 Brian Fox '19
Charlie Gibson '20
York High School York High School Varsity 1 A 13 17 14 16 22 8 10 100 Zane Morris '18
Ethan White '21
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity B 12 13 21 12 8 20 19 105 Madeline Amthor '22
Christopher Raab '20
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers A 22 16 8 OCS 17 16 5 109 Avery Mcnight '20
Charlotte Pirnik '20
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 A 14 20 13 14 18 15 18 112 Tyler Cason '18 [1-7]
Will Moore '20 [1-3, 6-7]
Gabby Cloe '24 [4-5]
York High School York High School Varsity 2 A 18 18 18 22 20 6 15 117 Kai Vylet '19
Hunter Bryson '22
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders B 7 23 17 21 12 24 20 124 Chase Brewer '22 [1-7]
Kalia Haupt '19 [1-3]
Claire Dicarlo '22 [4-7]
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms B 23 22 DNF 11 15 13 21 130 Ryan Nguyen '20
Ricky Cordner '19
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity A 19 19 19 19 21 18 22 137 Haydon Gould '19
Reilly Warren '21
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers B 21 24 22 20 24 21 24 156 Nick Winkle '20
Mallory Soter '20
York High School York High School Varsity 2 B 24 21 23 23 23 23 23 160 David Hanna '21
Elias Rooker '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity1111111
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers2222222
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors3333333
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 14444444
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 25555555
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints6666666
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 17777777
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 28888888
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms9999999
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders10101010101010
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 111111111111111
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 212121212121212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity101101101101101101101
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers102102102102102102102
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors103103103103103103103
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 1104104104104104104104
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 2105105105105105105105
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints106106106106106106106
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1107107107107107107107
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2108108108108108108108
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms109109109109109109109
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders110110110110110110110
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 1111111111111111111111
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 2112112112112112112112

Conditions — 05/19/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1020.9 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.0 kn
avg  ·  max 11.3 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From S (184°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine2.6 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1020.9 hPa Rain0.09 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Norfolk Collegiate: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.13 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Collegiate by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Norfolk Collegiate, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →