| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Saints | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 7–1 |
| 3 |  |
Phoebus High School | Phantoms | 6–2 |
| 4 |  |
York High School | Varsity | 5–3 |
| 5 |  |
Tabb High School | Varsity | 4–4 |
| 6 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 2–6 |
| 7 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 2–6 |
| 8 |  |
Grafton High School | Varsity | 2–6 |
| 9 |  |
Hampton High School | Crabbers | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,021 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 36 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.514 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.55 ± 0.47: an orderly event, more orderly than 82% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | 3.27 | 6.27 | 8–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 3.0 | 10% |
| 2 | Kecoughtan High School | 1.66 | 4.65 | 7–1 | 3.6 | +2.99 | 5.0 | 1% |
| 5 | Tabb High School | 1.21 | 1.97 | 4–4 | 2.9 | +0.76 | 0.5 | 33% |
| 3 | Phoebus High School | 2.67 | 3.34 | 6–2 | 5.2 | +0.67 | 0.3 | 42% |
| 4 | York High School | 3.03 | 2.46 | 5–3 | 5.7 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 6 | Poquoson High School | 1.01 | 0.41 | 2–6 | 2.7 | −0.60 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 7 | Maury High School | 1.35 | 0.47 | 2–6 | 3.1 | −0.89 | 0.5 | 89% |
| 8 | Grafton High School | 1.62 | 0.41 | 2–6 | 3.6 | −1.22 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 9 | Hampton High School | 1.37 | -1.63 | 0–8 | 3.1 | ≤−3.00 | 5.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Parker | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | 1.56 | 4.56 | 8–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 3.0 | 10% |
| Cole Handly | Kecoughtan High School | 1.12 | 4.11 | 7–1 | 3.6 | +2.99 | 5.0 | 1% |
| Sam Brady | Kecoughtan High School | 0.76 | 3.76 | 7–1 | 3.6 | +2.99 | 5.0 | 1% |
| Byron Armstrong | Maury High School | 0.64 | 0.26 | 2–4 | 2.4 | −0.38 | 0.1 | 78% |
| Zane Morris | York High School | 1.30 | 0.73 | 5–3 | 5.7 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Ben Clarke | York High School | 0.68 | 0.12 | 5–3 | 5.7 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Jack Mckenna | Poquoson High School | 0.94 | 0.34 | 2–6 | 2.7 | −0.60 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Devon Bailey | Poquoson High School | -0.37 | -0.97 | 2–6 | 2.7 | −0.60 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Haydon Gould | Grafton High School | 0.10 | -1.11 | 2–6 | 3.6 | −1.22 | 1.0 | 94% |
| Nikki Baldwin | Grafton High School | 0.95 | -0.27 | 2–6 | 3.6 | −1.22 | 1.0 | 94% |
| Avery Mcnight | Hampton High School | 0.03 | -2.97 | 0–8 | 3.1 | ≤−3.00 | 5.2 | >99% |
| Nick Winkle | Hampton High School | -0.44 | -3.44 | 0–8 | 3.1 | ≤−3.00 | 5.2 | >99% |
| Anna Patterson | Hampton High School | 1.58 | -1.42 | 0–8 | 3.1 | ≤−3.00 | 5.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Crabbers | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 2 | |
Warriors | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 3 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Phantoms | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 5 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 6 | |
Warriors | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Crabbers | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Saints | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 8 | |
Phantoms | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 10 | |
Commodores | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 11 | |
Warriors | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Phantoms | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 12 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 13 | |
Islanders | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Crabbers | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 15 | |
Phantoms | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 16 | |
Saints | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Crabbers | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 17 | |
Warriors | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 18 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 DNS | def. | |
Islanders | 2-4-5 DNS |
| 19 | |
Commodores | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Crabbers | 1-4-6 DNS |
| 20 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 DNS |
| 21 | |
Saints | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-4-6 DNS |
| 22 | |
Phantoms | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 23 | |
Islanders | 1-3-6 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 2-4-5 DNS |
| 24 | |
Warriors | 1-3-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 DNS |
| 25 | |
Phantoms | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 DNS |
| 26 | |
Saints | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Islanders | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 27 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Crabbers | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 28 | |
Phantoms | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 29 | |
Saints | 1-2-6 DNF | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 30 | |
Warriors | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 31 | |
Phantoms | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Crabbers | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 32 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 33 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 34 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-4-6 DNS |
| 35 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Crabbers | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 36 | |
Warriors | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
