Hampton Roads Academy '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.21 (fleet -0.33) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–14 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 | 2 | 7–14 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 7–14 against 8.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-24 | VISA NCS 2x2 Team Race Champions | skipper | 0.03 | -0.77 | 3–3 | 3.7 | −0.80 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 2015-10-08 | Peninsula Team Race | skipper | -0.23 | -0.71 | 4–11 | 5.1 | −0.48 | 0.3 | 82% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Season | |||||
| VISA TCIS Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 15.0 | -1.33 |
| VISA NCS 2x2 Team Race Champions | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Peninsula Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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