| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Varsity | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
Poquoson High School | Varsity | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Varsity | 6–2 |
| 4 |  |
Smithfield High School | Smithfield | 5–3 |
| 5 |  |
Phoebus High School | Varsity | 4–4 |
| 6 |  |
Walsingham Academy | Varsity | 3–5 |
| 7 |  |
St. Catherine's School | Varsity | 3–5 |
| 8 |  |
York High School | Varsity | 2–6 |
| 9 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Varsity | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 303 team race matches sailed before 2014-09-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 19 of 36 matches (53%) with a log-loss of 0.749 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | -0.41 | 1.80 | 6–2 | 3.2 | +2.21 | 3.3 | 4% |
| 4 | Smithfield High School | -0.35 | 0.95 | 5–3 | 3.3 | +1.30 | 1.3 | 17% |
| 2 | Poquoson High School | 0.56 | 1.72 | 6–2 | 4.6 | +1.16 | 0.8 | 26% |
| 5 | Phoebus High School | -0.77 | 0.21 | 4–4 | 2.7 | +0.98 | 0.7 | 25% |
| 1 | Hampton Roads Academy | 2.38 | 2.47 | 7–1 | 6.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 7 | St. Catherine's School | -0.45 | -0.61 | 3–5 | 3.2 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 6 | Walsingham Academy | -0.19 | -0.62 | 3–5 | 3.6 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 8 | York High School | -0.49 | -1.35 | 2–6 | 3.1 | −0.85 | 0.5 | 89% |
| 9 | Kecoughtan High School | 1.06 | -1.94 | 0–8 | 5.5 | ≤−3.00 | 11.9 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dolewski | Poquoson High School | -0.48 | 0.68 | 6–2 | 4.6 | +1.16 | 0.8 | 26% |
| Addy Lucas | Poquoson High School | 1.31 | 2.47 | 6–2 | 4.6 | +1.16 | 0.8 | 26% |
| Olivia Basco | Hampton Roads Academy | 1.31 | 1.40 | 7–1 | 6.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Connor Duggan | Hampton Roads Academy | 1.31 | 1.40 | 7–1 | 6.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 71% |
| David Pellei | Walsingham Academy | -0.49 | -0.92 | 3–5 | 3.6 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Mike Laccheo | Walsingham Academy | -0.78 | -1.20 | 3–5 | 3.6 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Ian Howard | Walsingham Academy | 1.31 | 0.88 | 3–5 | 3.6 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Ben Clarke | York High School | -0.01 | -0.86 | 6–18 | 9.2 | −0.85 | 1.5 | 95% |
| Robert Peabody | Kecoughtan High School | 0.62 | -2.38 | 0–16 | 11.0 | ≤−3.00 | 23.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Poquoson High School | Smithfield High School | 62% | |
| 1 | 2 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Phoebus High School | 54% | |
| 1 | 3 | Walsingham Academy | St. Catherine's School | 54% | |
| 1 | 4 | Hampton Roads Academy | York High School | 89% | |
| 1 | 5 | Smithfield High School | Kecoughtan High School | 22% | upset |
| 1 | 6 | Poquoson High School | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | 68% | |
| 1 | 7 | Hampton Roads Academy | Walsingham Academy | 88% | |
| 1 | 8 | Phoebus High School | York High School | 44% | upset |
| 1 | 9 | Poquoson High School | Kecoughtan High School | 39% | upset |
| 1 | 10 | St. Catherine's School | Smithfield High School | 50% | |
| 1 | 11 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | York High School | 52% | |
| 1 | 12 | Phoebus High School | Walsingham Academy | 38% | upset |
| 1 | 13 | Smithfield High School | Hampton Roads Academy | 10% | upset |
| 1 | 14 | Poquoson High School | St. Catherine's School | 68% | |
| 1 | 15 | York High School | Kecoughtan High School | 22% | upset |
| 1 | 16 | Hampton Roads Academy | Phoebus High School | 92% | |
| 1 | 17 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Walsingham Academy | 45% | upset |
| 1 | 18 | St. Catherine's School | Kecoughtan High School | 24% | upset |
| 1 | 19 | Smithfield High School | York High School | 52% | |
| 1 | 20 | Poquoson High School | Walsingham Academy | 64% | |
| 1 | 21 | Phoebus High School | Kecoughtan High School | 19% | upset |
| 1 | 22 | Hampton Roads Academy | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | 90% | |
| 1 | 23 | St. Catherine's School | York High School | 52% | |
| 1 | 24 | Smithfield High School | Walsingham Academy | 45% | upset |
| 1 | 25 | Hampton Roads Academy | Poquoson High School | 81% | |
| 1 | 26 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Kecoughtan High School | 24% | upset |
| 1 | 27 | Phoebus High School | St. Catherine's School | 43% | upset |
| 1 | 28 | Walsingham Academy | York High School | 57% | |
| 1 | 29 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Smithfield High School | 50% | |
| 1 | 30 | Hampton Roads Academy | Kecoughtan High School | 74% | |
| 1 | 31 | York High School | Poquoson High School | 30% | upset |
| 1 | 32 | Smithfield High School | Phoebus High School | 57% | |
| 1 | 33 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | St. Catherine's School | 50% | |
| 1 | 34 | Walsingham Academy | Kecoughtan High School | 28% | upset |
| 1 | 35 | Poquoson High School | Phoebus High School | 74% | |
| 1 | 36 | Hampton Roads Academy | St. Catherine's School | 90% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Smithfield | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 2 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 3 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 DNS |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 5 | |
Smithfield | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 6 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Smithfield | 3-4-6 DNF,DNF,DNS |
| 11 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 12 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Smithfield | 1-3-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 DNS |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 DNF,DNS |
| 15 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 16 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 17 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 18 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 DNS |
| 19 | |
Smithfield | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 20 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 21 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 22 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 DSQ,DNS |
| 24 | |
Smithfield | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 26 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 27 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 28 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 29 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Smithfield | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 30 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 31 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Smithfield | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 33 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 34 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 35 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 36 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hampton Roads Academy | Varsity | Connor Duggan '19 Jared Cronin '17 Olivia Basco '19 |
Mark Fitzharris '19 Alex Kitay '19 Chris Bratcher '19 |
|
Poquoson High School | Varsity | Addy Lucas '28 Greg Dolewski '31 Unreported Sailor '19 |
Peyton Rollins '26 Michael Hedgecock '29 Unreported Sailor '19 |
|
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Varsity | Unreported Sailor '19 | Unreported Sailor '19 |
|
Smithfield High School | Smithfield | Unreported Sailor '19 | Unreported Sailor '19 |
|
Phoebus High School | Varsity | David Michael Jennings '14 | David Michael Jennings '14 |
|
Walsingham Academy | Varsity | David Pellei '18 Ian Howard '23 Mike Laccheo '23 |
Maddy O'Connell '20 Jack Pflika '22 Ethan Hughes '20 |
|
St. Catherine's School | Varsity | Unreported Sailor '19 | Unreported Sailor '19 |
|
York High School | Varsity | Ben Clarke '16 | Ben Clarke '16 |
|
Kecoughtan High School | Varsity | Rachael Kilgore '14 Robert Peabody '14 |
Rachel Kilgore '14 Samuel Templeman '14 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
