VISA NA Fleet Scrimmage Official

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 15 7 22
2 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 13 23 36
3 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 15 24 39
4 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 24 34 58
5 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 45 20 65
6 York High School York High School Varsity 54 32 86
7 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 48 39 87
8 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 44 47 91
9 Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 34 61 95
10 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 41 58 99
11 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 64 53 117
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 5 1 1 2 2 13 Jessica Williams '16
Alek Sas '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1 1 3 3 6 1 15 Darden Purrington '16
Hunter Kahler '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 3 2 2 4 1 3 15 Victor Layne '16
Mike Klink '15
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 4 3 6 2 4 5 24 Kaila Pfrang '17
Hailey Gilman '17
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 5 4 8 10 3 4 34 Alex Shinn '15 [1-6]
Ramani Perera '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Creid Johnson '18 [3-4]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 8 10 5 5 7 6 41 Anna Patterson '16
Cole Handly '19
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 6 7 10 9 5 7 44 Richard Hall '15 [1-6]
Austin Ramsey '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Ethan Svitak '15 [3-4]
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 10 8 4 6 9 8 45 Henry Eley '18
David Michael Jennings '14
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 7 6 7 7 11 10 48 Jonathan Rowland '15 [1-6]
Charlotte Hennessy '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Raftery Cole '16 [3-4]
York High School York High School Varsity 9 9 9 8 10 9 54 Daniel Hodges '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Zane Morris '18 [3-4]
Lucas Grigorian '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Marissa White '18 [3-4]
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 11 11 11 11 8 DNF 64 Charlie White '15 [1-6]
Hudson Bell '19 [1-2]
Arden Porter '15 [3-4]
Raftery Cole '16 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 7 Ellie Maus '18
Daniel Vail '17
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 3 2 3 4 6 2 20 Blake Harrington '18
Henry Waddill '19
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 7 1 3 3 7 23 Alexander Singh '15
Lawson Montgomery '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 4 4 5 2 4 5 24 Joe Morrison '16
Nick Baker '16
York High School York High School Varsity 6 3 10 7 2 4 32 Haydon Gould '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Brian Fox '19 [3-4]
Haydon Gould '19 [1-4]
Brian Fox '19 [5-6]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 7 6 4 6 5 6 34 Harrison Parker '18
Bobby Levin '18
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 9 9 6 5 7 3 39 Will Ellson '15
Arden Porter '15
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 5 5 11 10 8 8 47 Nathan Gibson '15 [1-6]
Wilson Hatchett '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Kusterer '15 [3-4]
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 8 8 9 9 9 10 53 Byron Armstrong '18 [1-6]
Will Philpott '19 [1-2]
Kate Weaver '18 [3-4]
Andrew Redfearn '19 [5-6]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 10 11 7 11 10 9 58 Kasey Cordner '16
Sam Brady '19
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield DNF 10 8 8 11 DNF 61 Eric Malarkey '15
Teresa Bonnin '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity113355
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 1224466
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 2335577
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity446688
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs557799
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 166881010
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 277991111
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity88101011
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders99111122
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield10101133
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity11112244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity224466
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 1335577
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 2446688
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity557799
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs66881010
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 177991111
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 288101011
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity99111122
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders10101133
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield11112244
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity113355
School / Team SkipperCrew
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Anna Patterson '16 Cole Handly '19
Varsity Kasey Cordner '16 Sam Brady '19
Maury High School Maury High School Jonathan Rowland '15 [1-6] Charlotte Hennessy '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Raftery Cole '16 [3-4]
Varsity 1 Will Ellson '15 Arden Porter '15
Maury High School Maury High School Charlie White '15 [1-6] Hudson Bell '19 [1-2]
Arden Porter '15 [3-4]
Raftery Cole '16 [5-6]
Varsity 2 Byron Armstrong '18 [1-6] Will Philpott '19 [1-2]
Kate Weaver '18 [3-4]
Andrew Redfearn '19 [5-6]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Kaila Pfrang '17 Hailey Gilman '17
Varsity Harrison Parker '18 Bobby Levin '18
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Jessica Williams '16 Alek Sas '18
Bulldogs Alexander Singh '15 Lawson Montgomery '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Darden Purrington '16 Hunter Kahler '17
Oaks 1 Ellie Maus '18 Daniel Vail '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Victor Layne '16 Mike Klink '15
Oaks 2 Joe Morrison '16 Nick Baker '16
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Henry Eley '18 David Michael Jennings '14
Varsity Blake Harrington '18 Henry Waddill '19
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Richard Hall '15 [1-6] Austin Ramsey '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Ethan Svitak '15 [3-4]
Islanders Nathan Gibson '15 [1-6] Wilson Hatchett '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Kusterer '15 [3-4]
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Alex Shinn '15 [1-6] Ramani Perera '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Creid Johnson '18 [3-4]
Smithfield Eric Malarkey '15 Teresa Bonnin '17
York High School York High School Daniel Hodges '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Zane Morris '18 [3-4]
Lucas Grigorian '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Marissa White '18 [3-4]
Varsity Haydon Gould '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Brian Fox '19 [3-4]
Haydon Gould '19 [1-4]
Brian Fox '19 [5-6]

Conditions — 03/14/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 95%  ·  Pressure 1016.3 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.2 kn
avg  ·  max 12.4 kn
Gusts to 30.1 kn
From SSW (195°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity95% Pressure1016.3 hPa Rain0.42 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 13 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Norfolk Academy: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.17)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.24
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.43 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.17 means a rating gap counts about 15% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Norfolk Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →