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VISA CNU Scrimmage

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 York High School York High School Varsity 1 11 11
2 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 22 22
3 York High School York High School Varsity 2 26 26
4 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 29 29
5 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 32 32
6 Commodores 2 Commodores 2 Commodores 2 35 35
7 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 37 37
8 Islanders 1 Islanders 1 Islanders 1 41 41
9 Commodores 1 Commodores 1 Commodores 1 48 48
10 Islanders 2 Islanders 2 Islanders 2 49 49
11 Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 72 72
12 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 73 73
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
York High School York High School Varsity 1 1 4 3 1 1 1 11 Zane Morris '18
Kylee Hockaday '17
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 4 1 5 2 6 4 22 Cole Handly '19
Ryan Nguyen '20
York High School York High School Varsity 2 3 5 4 6 2 6 26 Daniel Hodges '18 [1-6]
Charlie Gibson '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Ethan White '20 [3-4]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 5 2 2 4 8 8 29 Henry Eley '18
William Thornton '17
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 7 3 9 7 3 3 32 Sam Brady '19
Grace Holloway '17
Commodores 2 Commodores 2 Commodores 2 9 6 6 5 4 5 35
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 8 7 8 3 9 2 37 Brian Fox '19
Lucas Grigorian '17
Islanders 1 Islanders 1 Islanders 1 2 10 1 8 10 10 41
Commodores 1 Commodores 1 Commodores 1 10 8 7 9 7 7 48
Islanders 2 Islanders 2 Islanders 2 6 9 10 10 5 9 49
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 12 12 11 11 DNS DNS 72 Avery Mcnight '20
Mallory Sotor '20
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 11 11 12 DNF DNS DNS 73 Will Olson '17
Emily Butler '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity111111
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers222222
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators333333
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 1131313131313
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 2141414141414
Commodores 1Commodores 1 Commodores 1666666
Commodores 2Commodores 2 Commodores 2777777
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms888888
Islanders 1Islanders 1 Islanders 1999999
Islanders 2Islanders 2 Islanders 2101010101010
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 1111111111111
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 2121212121212
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity Brian Fox '19 Lucas Grigorian '17
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers Avery Mcnight '20 Mallory Sotor '20
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators Henry Eley '18 William Thornton '17
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 Sam Brady '19 Grace Holloway '17
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 Cole Handly '19 Ryan Nguyen '20
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms Will Olson '17 Emily Butler '19
York High School York High School Varsity 1 Zane Morris '18 Kylee Hockaday '17
York High School York High School Varsity 2 Daniel Hodges '18 [1-6] Charlie Gibson '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Ethan White '20 [3-4]

Conditions — 05/14/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1008.4 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.5 kn
avg  ·  max 13.3 kn
Gusts to 26.6 kn
From SW (217°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover40% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1008.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hampton: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.38 ± 0.35)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →