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VISA CCS Fleet Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Varsity 1 19 14 33
2 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Varsity 1 24 17 41
3 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1 26 16 42
4 Christchurch School Christchurch School Varsity 2 28 26 54
5 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 13 44 57
6 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 29 40 69
7 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 41 50 91
8 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 2 47 47 94
9 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Varsity 2 68 35 103
10 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 57 49 106
11 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 70 66 136
12 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 3 60 87 147
13 York High School York High School Varsity 88 59 147
14 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 80 81 161
15 Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 72 91 163
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 2 6 1 1 1 2 13 Alexander Hanna '15
Wilson Hatchett '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Varsity 1 1 1 3 6 2 6 19 Hector Guzman '16
Claire Rae '16
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Varsity 1 3 3 5 5 5 3 24 William Whitmore '16
Marshall Mccraw '16
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1 7 2 2 3 3 9 26 Dreugh Phillips '16
Mike Klink '15
Christchurch School Christchurch School Varsity 2 4 4 7 4 4 5 28 Alex Moreno '15
Heidi Ruse '14
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 5 5 4 2 6 7 29 Jacob Marquardt '14
Ian O'Connell '16
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 9 7 9 7 8 1 41 Samuel Templeman '14
Pierce Scribner '15
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 2 10 8 6 10 9 4 47 Darden Purrington '16
Evan Maguire '15
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 13 11 8 8 7 10 57 Feild Russell '14
Will Ellson '15
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 3 8 10 14 9 11 8 60 Ellie Maus '18
Sarah Smith '18
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Varsity 2 12 9 12 11 13 11 68 Miles Campbell '16
Blake Harrington '18
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 11 14 11 12 10 12 70 Kaila Pfrang '17
Hailey Gilman '17
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 6 12 10 DNF 14 14 72 Alex Shinn '15
Ashton Hardesty '18
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 RAF 13 13 13 12 13 80 Turner Labrie '14
Peter Dister '17
York High School York High School Varsity 14 15 15 14 15 15 88 Daniel Hodges '18 [1-6]
Hayden Gould '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Lucas Grigorian '17 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Varsity 1 4 2 1 3 3 1 14 Graham Shivers '14
Carter Little '14
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1 RDG 3 6 1 1 4 16 Victor Layne '16
Daniel Vail '17
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Varsity 1 1 1 2 7 4 2 17 Gray Kiger '16
Alek Sas '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Varsity 2 3 4 9 2 2 6 26 Annabell Carrington '15
Peter Dorrian '14
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Varsity 2 5 5 4 11 7 3 35 Jon Pavilack '16
Emma Burdett '16
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 6 8 5 5 5 11 40 Matthew Shield '16 [1-6]
Jacob Wilcox '16 [1-2]
Sam Wilson '16 [3-6]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Varsity 7 7 10 4 9 7 44 Nathaniel Gibson '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Rick Hall '15 [3-4]
Lauren Levinson '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Thomas Bain '14 [3-4]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 2 8 6 12 8 8 5 47 Chris Robertson '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Parker Purrington '19 [3-4]
Nick Baker '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 10 11 3 6 10 9 49 Jonathan Rowland '15
Charlotte Hennessy '15
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity RDG RDG 13 9 6 8 50 Morgan Sutherland '14
Kyle Nguyen '15
York High School York High School Varsity 9 9 8 10 13 10 59 Zane Morris '18
Kylee Hockaday '17
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 11 10 7 14 12 12 66 Harrison Parker '18
Tj Argust '18
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 13 DNF DNS 12 11 13 81 Charlie White '15 [1-2, 4-6]
Tyler Cason '17 [3]
Arden Porter '15 [1-2]
Alexandra Lingle '18 [3]
Hudson Bell '18 [4-6]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Varsity 3 DNF DNF 14 13 14 14 87 Morgan Kelly '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Jacob Wilcox '16 [3-4]
Morgan Williams '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Carson Cooper '18 [3-4]
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield DNF DNS 11 DNS DNS DNS 91 Eric Malarkey '15
Gabrielle Guill '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Varsity 1101012121414
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Varsity 213131133
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity8810101212
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 1557799
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 21212141422
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity77991111
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Varsity 1113355
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Varsity 2151515151515
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1224466
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 21111131311
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 314142244
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Varsity335577
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield66881010
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity446688
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity9911111313

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Varsity 11111131311
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Varsity 214142244
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity9911111313
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 166881010
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 213131133
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity8810101212
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Varsity 1224466
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Varsity 2151515151515
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 1335577
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 21212141422
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Varsity 3113355
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Varsity446688
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield77991111
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity557799
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity101012121414
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Hector Guzman '16 Claire Rae '16
Varsity 1 Graham Shivers '14 Carter Little '14
Christchurch School Christchurch School Alex Moreno '15 Heidi Ruse '14
Varsity 2 Annabell Carrington '15 Peter Dorrian '14
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Samuel Templeman '14 Pierce Scribner '15
Varsity Morgan Sutherland '14 Kyle Nguyen '15
Maury High School Maury High School Feild Russell '14 Will Ellson '15
Varsity 1 Jonathan Rowland '15 Charlotte Hennessy '15
Maury High School Maury High School Turner Labrie '14 Peter Dister '17
Varsity 2 Charlie White '15 [1-2, 4-6]
Tyler Cason '17 [3]		 Arden Porter '15 [1-2]
Alexandra Lingle '18 [3]
Hudson Bell '18 [4-6]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Kaila Pfrang '17 Hailey Gilman '17
Varsity Harrison Parker '18 Tj Argust '18
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy William Whitmore '16 Marshall Mccraw '16
Varsity 1 Gray Kiger '16 Alek Sas '18
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Miles Campbell '16 Blake Harrington '18
Varsity 2 Jon Pavilack '16 Emma Burdett '16
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Dreugh Phillips '16 Mike Klink '15
Varsity 1 Victor Layne '16 Daniel Vail '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Darden Purrington '16 Evan Maguire '15
Varsity 2 Chris Robertson '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Parker Purrington '19 [3-4]		 Nick Baker '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Ellie Maus '18 Sarah Smith '18
Varsity 3 Morgan Kelly '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Jacob Wilcox '16 [3-4]		 Morgan Williams '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Carson Cooper '18 [3-4]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Alexander Hanna '15 Wilson Hatchett '17
Varsity Nathaniel Gibson '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Rick Hall '15 [3-4]		 Lauren Levinson '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Thomas Bain '14 [3-4]
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Alex Shinn '15 Ashton Hardesty '18
Smithfield Eric Malarkey '15 Gabrielle Guill '16
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Jacob Marquardt '14 Ian O'Connell '16
Varsity Matthew Shield '16 [1-6] Jacob Wilcox '16 [1-2]
Sam Wilson '16 [3-6]
York High School York High School Daniel Hodges '18 [1-6] Hayden Gould '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Lucas Grigorian '17 [3-4]
Varsity Zane Morris '18 Kylee Hockaday '17

Conditions — 03/22/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1014.0 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.8 kn
avg  ·  max 12.4 kn
Gusts to 23.7 kn
From SW (232°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover90% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1014.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 16 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Hampton: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.22
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.23 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →