VISA HRA fleet race regatta.

HostYSV at Fort Monroe
Date04/22/2017
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints 1	25	25
2	York High School	Varsity 2	40	40
3	York High School	Varsity 1	48	48
4	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 1	49	49
5	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 2	51	51
6	Tabb High School	Varsity 2	54	54
7	Phoebus High School	Phantoms 1	55	55
8	Tabb High School	Varsity 1	72	72
9	Maury High School	Commodores 1	76	76
10	Hampton High School	Crabbers 1	81	81
11	Hampton High School	Crabbers 2	82	82
12	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints 2	83	83
13	Grafton High School	Varsity 2	88	88
14	Maury High School	Commodores 2	88	88
15	Grafton High School	Varsity 1	97	97
16	Phoebus High School	Phantoms 2	116	116
17	Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	128	128
18	Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	140	140

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints 1	2	2	1	7	5	1	5	2	25	Harrison Parker '18 Maddy Reynolds '21
York High School	Varsity 2	11	8	2	9	4	4	1	1	40	Daniel Hodges '18 Charlie Gibson '20
York High School	Varsity 1	6	7	8	4	9	2	6	6	48	Zane Morris '18 Ethan White '21
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 1	9	1	7	2	2	9	14	5	49	Cole Handly '19 Grace Holloway '17
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 2	1	3	3	1	3	10	13	17	51	Sam Brady '19 Laura Rhodes '20
Tabb High School	Varsity 2	5	6	13	3	7	14	3	3	54	Kylee Hockaday '17 Lenore Dougherty '20
Phoebus High School	Phantoms 1	3	12	4	11	1	13	4	7	55	Ryan Wright '17 Ricky Cordner '19
Tabb High School	Varsity 1	8	14	15	10	6	5	2	12	72	Brian Fox '19 Kai Vylet '19
Maury High School	Commodores 1	7	10	10	13	17	7	8	4	76	Byron Armstrong '18 Kayla Washington '17
Hampton High School	Crabbers 1	15	11	5	15	10	8	7	10	81	Gavin Smith '21 William Thornton '17
Hampton High School	Crabbers 2	16	5	14	6	16	3	9	13	82	Nick Winkle '20 Mallory Soter '20
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints 2	12	4	9	5	12	11	OCS	11	83	Kyle Pfrang '22 Gustav Berner '17
Grafton High School	Varsity 2	4	9	6	8	8	15	DNS	DNS	88	Haydon Gould '19 Jacqueline Lankford '18
Maury High School	Commodores 2	10	13	11	14	14	6	12	8	88	Robert Chase '22 [1-4] Andrew Redfearn '19 [5-8] Sophia Bibbo '20 [1-4] Chloe Cowan '22 [5-8]
Grafton High School	Varsity 1	14	16	12	12	11	12	11	9	97	Madeline Amthor '22 Noah Navarrete '18
Phoebus High School	Phantoms 2	13	17	17	16	13	16	10	14	116	Tyler Bevington '19 Ryan Nguyen '20
Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	17	15	16	18	15	17	15	15	128	Nicholas Rote '17 David Hanna '21
Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	DNF	18	18	17	18	18	16	16	140	Emmaline Dicarlo '20 Charlotte Patterson '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Grafton High School Varsity 1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Grafton High School Varsity 2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Hampton High School Crabbers 1	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Hampton High School Crabbers 2	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Maury High School Commodores 1	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Maury High School Commodores 2	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 2	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Phoebus High School Phantoms 1	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Phoebus High School Phantoms 2	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Poquoson High School Islanders 1	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Poquoson High School Islanders 2	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Tabb High School Varsity 1	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Tabb High School Varsity 2	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
York High School Varsity 1	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
York High School Varsity 2	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Grafton High School	Varsity 1	Madeline Amthor '22	Noah Navarrete '18
Grafton High School	Varsity 2	Haydon Gould '19	Jacqueline Lankford '18
Hampton High School	Crabbers 1	Gavin Smith '21	William Thornton '17
Hampton High School	Crabbers 2	Nick Winkle '20	Mallory Soter '20
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 1	Cole Handly '19	Grace Holloway '17
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 2	Sam Brady '19	Laura Rhodes '20
Maury High School	Commodores 1	Byron Armstrong '18	Kayla Washington '17
Maury High School	Commodores 2	Robert Chase '22 [1-4] Andrew Redfearn '19 [5-8]	Sophia Bibbo '20 [1-4] Chloe Cowan '22 [5-8]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints 1	Harrison Parker '18	Maddy Reynolds '21
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints 2	Kyle Pfrang '22	Gustav Berner '17
Phoebus High School	Phantoms 1	Ryan Wright '17	Ricky Cordner '19
Phoebus High School	Phantoms 2	Tyler Bevington '19	Ryan Nguyen '20
Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	Emmaline Dicarlo '20	Charlotte Patterson '20
Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	Nicholas Rote '17	David Hanna '21
Tabb High School	Varsity 1	Brian Fox '19	Kai Vylet '19
Tabb High School	Varsity 2	Kylee Hockaday '17	Lenore Dougherty '20
York High School	Varsity 1	Zane Morris '18	Ethan White '21
York High School	Varsity 2	Daniel Hodges '18	Charlie Gibson '20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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VISA HRA fleet race regatta.

Division A

From the notes