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Silver Division Great Oaks 2015

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Choctawhatchee High School Choctawhatchee High School Varsity 11 11
2 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 13 13
3 Niceville High School Niceville High School Varsity 22 22
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 23 23
5 Ft. Walton Beach High School Ft. Walton Beach High School Varsity 35 35
6 St. Thomas' Episcopal St. Thomas' Episcopal Saints 44 44
7 Knights Knights Knights 53 53
8 Pass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian Sail 56 56
9 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 67 67
10 North Bay Haven Charter Academy North Bay Haven Charter Academy NBHCA Buccaneers 68 68
11 Greenies Greenies Greenies 69 69
12 Long Beach High School Long Beach High School Varsity 75 75
13 Louise S. McGehee Louise S. McGehee Hawksa 75 75
14 Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity 83 83
15 CUBS CUBS CUBS 92 92
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Choctawhatchee High School Choctawhatchee High School Varsity 1 3 1 4 1 1 11 George Hambleton '17
Houston Loch '16
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 2 1 2 3 2 3 13 Kaila Pfrang '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Harrison Parker '18 [3-4]
T.J. Argust '18 [1-4]
Alex Wilkerson '19 [5-6]
Niceville High School Niceville High School Varsity 3 2 5 2 6 4 22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 5 4 1 4 5 23 Danny Kane '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Mark Freidin '16 [3-4]
Sarah Elia '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Juliana Rustum '16 [3-4]
Ft. Walton Beach High School Ft. Walton Beach High School Varsity 7 4 3 DNS 3 2 35 Jonathan Balent '17 [1-6]
John Gann '14 [1-2]
Rachael Metruck '18 [3-6]
St. Thomas' Episcopal St. Thomas' Episcopal Saints 6 9 8 8 5 8 44 Celia Houston '19 [1-6]
David Gordon '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Valerie Herrscher '16 [3-4]
Knights Knights Knights 9 8 7 6 7 DNS 53
Pass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian Sail 12 10 9 9 9 7 56 Alex Rouse '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Jourdan Gaffin '20 [3-4]
Jourdan Gaffin '20 [1-2]
Margot Bullock '19 [3-6]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 11 DNF 10 DNF 8 6 67 Sofia Giordano '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Amanda Demesia '17 [3-4]
Elizabeth Squires '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Kaitlin Daly '17 [3-4]
North Bay Haven Charter Academy North Bay Haven Charter Academy NBHCA Buccaneers 10 7 12 7 DNS DNS 68 Bray Spann '19 [1-6]
Morgan Hurst '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Luke Hayes '19 [3-4]
Greenies Greenies Greenies DNF DNS 6 5 10 DNF 69
Long Beach High School Long Beach High School Varsity 5 6 DNS DNS DNS DNS 75 Jessica Lebartard '20
Laurel Lukes '18
Louise S. McGehee Louise S. McGehee Hawksa DNS 11 11 10 11 DNF 75 Amelie Lagarde '16
Vivienne Lapeyre '18
Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity 8 DNF DNS 11 DNS DNS 83 Lance Covington '20
Nicholas Svec '20
CUBS CUBS CUBS DNS DNS DNS 12 DNS DNS 92
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Choctawhatchee High SchoolChoctawhatchee High School Varsity224466
KnightsKnights Knights446688
Ft. Walton Beach High SchoolFt. Walton Beach High School Varsity66881010
GreeniesGreenies Greenies8810101212
Long Beach High SchoolLong Beach High School Varsity101012121414
Louise S. McGeheeLouise S. McGehee Hawksa121214141616
Lutheran South AcademyLutheran South Academy Varsity141416161818
CUBSCUBS CUBS161618182020
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints181820202222
Niceville High SchoolNiceville High School Varsity202022222424
North Bay Haven Charter AcademyNorth Bay Haven Charter Academy NBHCA Buccaneers222224242626
Pass Christian High School Sailing ClubPass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian Sail242426262828
St. Thomas' EpiscopalSt. Thomas' Episcopal Saints262628283030
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers2828303022
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions30302244
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Choctawhatchee High School Choctawhatchee High School Varsity George Hambleton '17 Houston Loch '16
Ft. Walton Beach High School Ft. Walton Beach High School Varsity Jonathan Balent '17 [1-6] John Gann '14 [1-2]
Rachael Metruck '18 [3-6]
Long Beach High School Long Beach High School Varsity Jessica Lebartard '20 Laurel Lukes '18
Louise S. McGehee Louise S. McGehee Hawksa Amelie Lagarde '16 Vivienne Lapeyre '18
Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity Lance Covington '20 Nicholas Svec '20
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints Kaila Pfrang '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Harrison Parker '18 [3-4]		 T.J. Argust '18 [1-4]
Alex Wilkerson '19 [5-6]
North Bay Haven Charter Academy North Bay Haven Charter Academy NBHCA Buccaneers Bray Spann '19 [1-6] Morgan Hurst '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Luke Hayes '19 [3-4]
Pass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian High School Sailing Club Pass Christian Sail Alex Rouse '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Jourdan Gaffin '20 [3-4]		 Jourdan Gaffin '20 [1-2]
Margot Bullock '19 [3-6]
St. Thomas' Episcopal St. Thomas' Episcopal Saints Celia Houston '19 [1-6] David Gordon '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Valerie Herrscher '16 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers Danny Kane '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Mark Freidin '16 [3-4]		 Sarah Elia '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Juliana Rustum '16 [3-4]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions Sofia Giordano '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Amanda Demesia '17 [3-4]		 Elizabeth Squires '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Kaitlin Daly '17 [3-4]

Conditions — 11/22/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1021.4 hPa

Temperature

28°F
↑ 30°F   ↓ 24°F
Feels like 17°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.3 kn
avg  ·  max 12.0 kn
Gusts to 20.8 kn
From W (279°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover21% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1021.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jesuit: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jesuit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Jesuit: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →