Navigate

VISA NCS/CCS 2v2 Team Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 11–1
2 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 10–2
3 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 5–7
4 Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 4–8
5 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 0–0
6 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 440 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 36 of 45 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.559 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Norfolk Collegiate School
Oaks		21.72
school +0.10		Daniel Vail / Chris Robertson
Nick Baker / Parker Purrington
Unreported Sailor / Unreported Sailor -0.60		67%14–1 (93%)+3.9
2Nansemond-Suffolk Academy
Saints		13.27
school +0.27		Kaila Pfrang / Hailey Gilman
Harrison Parker / Bobby Levin
Unreported Sailor / Unreported Sailor 0.47		89%10–5 (67%)−3.3
3Maury High School
Varsity		40.64Byron Armstrong / Kate Weaver
Tyler Cason / Emily Palmer
Unreported Sailor / Unreported Sailor 0.47		48%5–10 (33%)−2.2
4Smithfield High School
Smithfield		5-0.50
school +0.11		Eric Malarkey / Ramani Perera
Unreported Sailor / Unreported Sailor -0.60
Teresa Bonnin / Carley Peacock 3–9
Teresa Bonnin / Kelly Ivy 1–2		29%4–11 (27%)−0.3
5Unregistered-MASSA
Griffins		31.09Forgot Bailer / Tiller Extension
Accidental Gybe / Capsize One
Mark Room / Capsize Two		54%9–6 (60%)+0.9
6Walsingham Academy
Varsity		6-1.57
school +0.14		Morgan Kelly / Alex Yang
Joshua Morris / Cameron Pellie
David Pellei / Maddy O'Connell -0.33		13%3–12 (20%)+1.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Norfolk Collegiate School1.724.9414–110.1+3.225.91%
6Walsingham Academy-1.57-0.903–122.0+0.670.433%
5Unregistered-MASSA1.091.529–68.1+0.430.241%
4Smithfield High School-0.50-0.674–114.3−0.170.069%
3Maury High School0.64-0.465–107.2−1.101.395%
2Nansemond-Suffolk Academy3.271.3310–513.3−1.944.1>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Joshua MorrisWalsingham Academy-1.30-0.633–122.0+0.670.433%
David PelleiWalsingham Academy-0.330.343–122.0+0.670.433%
Forgot BailerUnregistered-MASSA0.260.699–68.1+0.430.241%
Accidental GybeUnregistered-MASSA0.601.039–68.1+0.430.241%
Mark RoomUnregistered-MASSA-0.250.189–68.1+0.430.241%
Teresa BonninSmithfield High School-0.24-0.414–114.3−0.170.069%
Byron ArmstrongMaury High School-0.02-1.125–107.2−1.101.395%
Tyler CasonMaury High School-0.14-1.245–107.2−1.101.395%
Harrison ParkerNansemond-Suffolk Academy0.94-1.0010–513.3−1.944.1>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Smithfield High SchoolWalsingham Academy66%
12Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNansemond-Suffolk Academy15%upset
13Maury High SchoolWalsingham Academy84%
14Norfolk Collegiate SchoolSmithfield High School82%
15Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyMaury High School89%
16Norfolk Collegiate SchoolWalsingham Academy92%
17Nansemond-Suffolk AcademySmithfield High School95%
18Norfolk Collegiate SchoolMaury High School68%
19Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyWalsingham Academy98%
110Maury High SchoolSmithfield High School75%
111Unregistered-MASSASmithfield High School71%
112Norfolk Collegiate SchoolUnregistered-MASSA65%
113Walsingham AcademyUnregistered-MASSA12%upset
114Unregistered-MASSAMaury High School57%
115Unregistered-MASSANansemond-Suffolk Academy15%upset
216Smithfield High SchoolWalsingham Academy70%
217Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNorfolk Collegiate School77%
218Maury High SchoolWalsingham Academy85%
219Norfolk Collegiate SchoolSmithfield High School85%
220Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyMaury High School89%
221Norfolk Collegiate SchoolWalsingham Academy93%
222Nansemond-Suffolk AcademySmithfield High School95%
223Norfolk Collegiate SchoolMaury High School72%
224Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyWalsingham Academy98%
225Maury High SchoolSmithfield High School73%
226Unregistered-MASSASmithfield High School75%
227Norfolk Collegiate SchoolUnregistered-MASSA66%
228Walsingham AcademyUnregistered-MASSA11%upset
229Unregistered-MASSAMaury High School59%
230Unregistered-MASSANansemond-Suffolk Academy16%upset
331Smithfield High SchoolWalsingham Academy72%
332Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNansemond-Suffolk Academy26%upset
333Maury High SchoolWalsingham Academy85%
334Norfolk Collegiate SchoolSmithfield High School85%
335Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyMaury High School89%
336Norfolk Collegiate SchoolWalsingham Academy94%
337Nansemond-Suffolk AcademySmithfield High School94%
338Norfolk Collegiate SchoolMaury High School74%
339Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyWalsingham Academy98%
340Smithfield High SchoolMaury High School27%upset
341Unregistered-MASSASmithfield High School75%
342Norfolk Collegiate SchoolUnregistered-MASSA67%
343Walsingham AcademyUnregistered-MASSA11%upset
344Unregistered-MASSAMaury High School59%
345Unregistered-MASSANansemond-Suffolk Academy16%upset
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Smithfield High School Smithfield 1-3-5 DNF def. Walsingham Academy Varsity 2-4-6 DSQ,DNF
2 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-3-6 DNF def. Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 2-4-5 DNF
3 Maury High School Varsity 1-2-6 DNF def. Walsingham Academy Varsity 3-4-5 DNF
4 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-5 DNF def. Smithfield High School Smithfield 3-4-6 DNF
5 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-2-5 DNF def. Maury High School Varsity 3-4-6 DNF
6 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-6 DNF def. Walsingham Academy Varsity 3-4-5 DNF
7 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-2-6 DNF def. Smithfield High School Smithfield 3-4-5 DNF
8 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-5 DNF def. Maury High School Varsity 3-4-6 DNF
9 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-2-5 DNF def. Walsingham Academy Varsity 3-4-6 DNF
10 Maury High School Varsity 1-2-5 DNF def. Smithfield High School Smithfield 3-4-6 DNF
11 Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 2-4-6 DNS,DNS,DNS def. Smithfield High School Smithfield 1-3-5 DNS,DNS,DNS
12 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS def. Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 2-3-4 DNS,DNS,DNS
13 Walsingham Academy Varsity 1-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS def. Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 2-3-4 DNS,DNS,DNS
14 Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 2-3-4 DNS,DNS,DNS def. Maury High School Varsity 1-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
15 Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 3-4-5 DNS,DNS,DNS def. Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-2-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
16 Smithfield High School Smithfield 1-2-5 DNF def. Walsingham Academy Varsity 3-4-6 DNF
17 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-2-6 DNF def. Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3-4-5 DNF
18 Maury High School Varsity 1-3-5 DNF def. Walsingham Academy Varsity 2-4-6 DNF
19 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-5 DNF def. Smithfield High School Smithfield 3-4-6 DNF
20 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-3-5 DNF def. Maury High School Varsity 2-4-6 DNF
21 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-5 DNF def. Walsingham Academy Varsity 3-4-6 DNF
22 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-2-6 DNF def. Smithfield High School Smithfield 3-4-5 DNF
23 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-5 DNF def. Maury High School Varsity 3-4-6 DNF
24 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-2-5 DNF def. Walsingham Academy Varsity 3-4-6 DNF
25 Maury High School Varsity 2-3-6 DNF def. Smithfield High School Smithfield 1-4-5 DSQ,DNF
26 Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 2-4-6 DNS,DNS,DNS def. Smithfield High School Smithfield 1-3-5 DNS,DNS,DNS
27 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS def. Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 2-3-4 DNS,DNS,DNS
28 Walsingham Academy Varsity 1-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS def. Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 2-3-4 DNS,DNS,DNS
29 Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 2-3-4 DNS,DNS,DNS def. Maury High School Varsity 1-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
30 Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 2-3-4 DNS,DNS,DNS def. Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
31 Smithfield High School Smithfield 1-3-5 DNF def. Walsingham Academy Varsity 2-4-6 DNF
32 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-6 DNF def. Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 3-4-5 DNF
33 Maury High School Varsity 1-2-6 DNF def. Walsingham Academy Varsity 3-4-5 DNF
34 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-5 DNF def. Smithfield High School Smithfield 3-4-6 DNF
35 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-2-6 DNF def. Maury High School Varsity 3-4-5 DNF
36 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-6 DNF def. Walsingham Academy Varsity 3-4-5 DNF,DNF,DNF
37 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-2-6 def. Smithfield High School Smithfield 3-4-5
38 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-5 DNF def. Maury High School Varsity 3-4-6 DNF
39 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-2-6 DNF def. Walsingham Academy Varsity 3-4-5 DNF
40 Smithfield High School Smithfield 1-3-5 DNF def. Maury High School Varsity 2-4-6 DNF
41 Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 2-4-6 DNS,DNS,DNS def. Smithfield High School Smithfield 1-3-5 DNS,DNS,DNS
42 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS def. Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 2-3-4 DNS,DNS,DNS
43 Walsingham Academy Varsity 1-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS def. Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 2-3-4 DNS,DNS,DNS
44 Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 2-3-4 DNS,DNS,DNS def. Maury High School Varsity 1-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
45 Unregistered-MASSA Griffins 2-3-4 DNS,DNS,DNS def. Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS

Conditions — 04/18/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1015.6 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.9 kn
Gusts to 15.7 kn
From NNE (34°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1015.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Hampton — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Hampton in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled fleet-race days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →